How eSports Betting Odds Are Calculated

As one of the fastest growing sports on the planet, eSports are starting to attract a lot of attention for betting, both from bettors and from bookmakers. Bookies are always on the lookout for new markets to offer, and the rise of eSports has given them an opportunity to add yet another sport to their long list of offerings.

eSports have the advantage, from a bookie’s point of view, of attracting a market that might not otherwise have had much interest in sports betting. Keen videogamers and gaming fans wouldn’t traditionally be associated with the major sports betting options - football and horse racing being quite disconnected from their interests. But with the advent of eSports betting, bookies have the chance to add an entirely new demographic to their customer base.

Whether you’re an eSports fan looking to dip your toe into the sports betting waters, or a sports bettor wondering about breaking into eSports betting, you might well have wondered how bookies work out their odds for eSports - and whether you’re getting good value when betting on them.

In this article, we’ll take you through exactly how bookies arrive at their odds, how to gauge whether the odds you’re seeing are worthwhile, and the strategies you can employ when betting on eSports to give yourself the best chance of a good return.

What Are eSports?

eSports are video games played competitively, and they’re perhaps the fastest growing sport in the world. They can be played either remotely or in person, and either in teams or individually. Although there are a vast range of video games out there, eSports competitions tend to focus on just a few games which particularly lend themselves to the tournament format. These include:

• Dota 2

• Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (usually shortened to CS:GO)

• Fortnite

• League of Legends

• Valorant

• PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds (usually shortened to PUBG)

• Rainbow Six Siege

• FIFA

As eSports have grown in popularity in recent years, their tournaments have grown along with them, with the prize pools for the biggest tournaments regularly well into seven figures. Indeed, The 2021 International offered as much as $40 million in prize money, although its pool was much lower in 2024.

Although eSports betting has risen dramatically, people are nonetheless sometimes concerned about whether betting on eSports is legal - but there’s no need to worry. If you’re in the UK, betting on eSports is just as legitimate as betting on any other sport, and eSports betting is covered by the same gambling legislation as all other betting.

It’s important to make clear that eSports are not the same thing as virtual sports, though they sound like they ought to be similar. Virtual sports are virtual versions of popular sports for sports betting, including football and horse racing, and are offered by bookmakers as alternatives to the real life versions of those sports.

Because they don’t exactly involve much in the way of physical exertion, there has been controversy over whether eSports can fairly be considered a sport at all. After all, sitting in one place for hours on end is arguably the opposite of partaking in a sport, and many of its players have suffered health problems as a result of their occupation, both physical and mental.

On the other hand, similar criticisms could be levelled at sports such as darts and snooker, which rely more on fine motor skills and reaction speed than overall fitness, just as eSports do, and which are usually accepted as sports. eSports are now gaining legitimacy as a ‘real’ sport, and were even considered for inclusion in the 2024 Olympics, though they didn’t make the cut in the end. However, there was an inaugural 2024 eSports World Cup held in Saudi Arabia in July and August, with 30 teams from across the world competing in 22 different tournaments and $60 million in prize money up for grabs.

What Are Betting Odds?

Betting odds indicate the amount a bettor can expect to win if they place a bet on a certain outcome.

High odds mean that a bettor will win more money if their bet is successful - but they also mean it’s much less likely that the bet will be successful. Low odds, meanwhile, indicate a more modest return, but a much better chance of a successful bet. Balancing the likelihood of a win with the size of a profit is one of the chief skills a sports bettor needs to possess to stand a chance of making any money from sports betting.

Types of odds

There are three main types of betting odds that you’ll see on betting sites in the UK: fractional, decimal and moneyline. Although moneyline odds are mostly used in America, we’ll run you through how they work, just in case you ever need to use them.

Fractional (British)

The traditional format for betting odds in the UK is fractional. Fractional odds indicate the amount you will win depending on your original stake, with the first number showing your winnings, and the second your stake. For example:

2/1 odds indicates that for every £1 staked you will win £2 (equal to 3.0 in decimal odds and +200 in moneyline odds)

The only trouble with fractional odds is that it can be quite difficult to compare them, especially if you’re a relative newcomer to sports betting. This means that you might not always be certain of whether one set of odds is better than another.

Decimal (European)

For many people, decimal odds are the easiest to understand. They’re used mostly in Europe, but are catching on in the UK as well. With decimal odds, you simply multiply your stake by the odds to calculate your total return (including your original stake) on a bet. For example:

3.0 odds means that if you bet £1, you receive a total of £3 if your bet wins (equal to 2/1 in fractional odds and +200 in moneyline odds)

The maths involved for decimal odds is therefore much easier, but it’s important to remember that you’re calculating your total return, not just your winnings, as is the case for fractional odds.

Moneyline (American)

To non-Americans, moneyline odds can be quite baffling. They come in two different formats, depending on the likelihood of an outcome. For an outcome that is more likely than not to occur (i.e. a favourite), moneyline odds are expressed in the negative, while for an outcome that is less likely to occur (i.e. an underdog), the odds are expressed in the positive.

For a favourite, the odds indicate the amount you have to bet in order to win £100 (or, as they’re more commonly used in the US, $100). For an underdog, meanwhile, the odds indicate the amount of profit you’ll make if you bet £100.

+200 odds means that if you bet £100, you’ll make £200 in profit if your bet wins (equal to 2/1 in fractional odds and 3.0 in decimal odds)

-200 odds means that you need to bet £200 in order to make £100 in profit if your bet wins (equal to 1/2 in fractional odds and 1.5 in decimal odds)

This format is rarely used in the UK, and British bettors are therefore unlikely to want to use it - but it doesn’t hurt to have an understanding of how it works.

For ease of use, we recommend sticking to decimal odds wherever possible, as they allow for quick and easy comparison and calculation.

How Betting Odds Relate To Probability

Although betting odds directly represent the sum a bettor will win if their bet is successful, they are also a representation of probability. As high odds are attached to less likely outcomes and vice versa, when a bettor looks at odds they get an immediate impression of the expected chances of each possible outcome occurring.

Implied probability is the term we use to refer to the probabilities that can be inferred from the odds listed on a betting site. For any odds, whatever format they’re in, it’s possible to calculate the implied probability of the outcome - or to simplify matters, you can use an odds converter to check the implied probability of any odds.

For example:

• Decimal odds of 2 (1/1 in fractional odds and +100 in moneyline odds) have an implied probability of 50%

• Decimal odds of 3 (2/1 in fractional odds and +200 in moneyline odds) have an implied probability of 33.3%

• Decimal odds of 1.67 (4/6 in fractional odds and -150 in moneyline odds) have an implied probability of 60%

Given how inherently connected odds are to probability, it’s to be expected that the likelihood of an event occurring is a major factor in how betting odds are determined. However, this isn’t the only factor, so it’s important to remember that betting odds cannot be considered a direct representation of probability.

Factors That Determine How eSports Odds Are Decided

Having the right odds is critical to making a profit for a bookie, so they invest a massive amount in software and staff to ensure their odds are both competitive and profitable. There are a large range of factors that go into their oddsmaking, which can be divided into two main categories: probability and profitability.

Probability

Bookies assess all the information available to them to work out the likelihood of all outcomes in any event, and eSports are no exception. Some of the main key factors are as follows:

• Performance. Bookies have access to historical data regarding the performance of all eSports competitors, whether teams or individual players, and they use this to evaluate the overall performance of the competitors in a match or tournament. For example, if an eSports team has had a run of wins, that’s a strong sign that they’re likely to win their next tournament as well.

• Player illness or suspension. If an otherwise strong team is missing its star player, its chances of success in an upcoming competition will be compromised. Bookies will therefore keep an eye out for absences or replacements when calculating their odds.

• Historical data. Most teams or players have gone up against each other before, so bookies can consult the results of historical match-ups to see who has come out the victor in previous meetings. This can be very useful if an overall weaker team has a history of doing well against a generally strong team, perhaps due to their style of play, and allows the bookie to adjust their odds accordingly. As eSports are fairly niche, it’s harder for individual bettors to get access to this data (without paying for it), which means the bookies have an immediate advantage here over regular punters.

• Environmental factors. One of the best known environmental factors in sports generally is the ‘home advantage’. Although eSports don’t exactly have home courts or grounds as such, teams playing in-person tournaments in their own countries will still benefit from this phenomenon. As well as the psychological boost of having the crowd on their side, the reduction in travel time can mean the home players are better rested, further increasing their chances.

Profitability

To guarantee themselves a profit, bookies will further adjust their odds beyond the probability of each outcome. An ‘overround’ is factored into the odds you see on a bookie’s website, which is their margin on their pricing.

For example, if you tossed a fair coin, you would have a 50% chance of it falling on heads (or tails), and a 100% chance that one of the two outcomes will occur. ‘Fair odds’ would mean offering odds of 2.0 in decimal format on either outcome. If the same number of people bet on either side of the coin toss, a bookie would pay out exactly the same amount that they had taken in bets in the first place - which isn’t really worth their while.

To make their profit, therefore, a bookie will add on a certain percentage. So instead of odds of 2.0 on both heads and tails, you might have 1.9, equal to probability of 52.63% per outcome, making a total of 105.26%. That extra 5.26% is the bookie’s overround.

Bookies also adjust their odds constantly as people make bets, aiming for the same volume of betting on all sides of an event. This allows them to ensure that they make their profit regardless of the outcome of that event.

Can You Use Matched Betting To Take Advantage Of Good eSports Odds?

It may seem like the odds are stacked against the eSports bettor, given the lengths bookies go to to guarantee a profit no matter what, but there are methods you can use to make the most of the odds available to you.

Matched Betting is one of the best ways of doing this, allowing you to make guaranteed profits without any risk, so long as you do it right. Matched Betting allows you to take advantage of the many offers bookmakers run to encourage new and existing customers to bet with them. To find out more about how Matched Betting works, check out our complete guide for beginners.

eSports ‘bet and get’ offers are rarer than offers on more traditional betting sports, such as football or horse racing, but they do still come up from time to time and, as eSports betting becomes more mainstream, they’re likely to crop up more frequently. Some betting sites are undoubtedly better than others when it comes to eSports, though, so you’d be wise to choose your bookie carefully when placing bets on upcoming tournaments.

There are also regular price boosts on eSports, which you may be able to profit from instantly if you can find a good match on the exchange. As an example, you can see a range of boosts on Bet365’s website below:

As well as this, arbitrage betting, advantage betting and value betting are good strategies you can use to profit from eSports, even when specific offers aren’t available from the bookies.

Summary

With eSports, as with any other sports, the odds offered by a bookie are linked to probability, but not a direct representation of it. Bookies factor in both the likelihood of an outcome and also their profits when deciding their odds, and for this reason it’s important not to rely on a bookie’s odds to indicate the real probability of an outcome occurring.

Whether you’re an eSports fan hoping to make use of your knowledge to bet on your favourite sport, or a sports bettor looking to branch out into a new field, there are ways to take advantage of favourable eSports betting odds to make a profit. Although opportunities may still be somewhat limited currently, the ever-increasing popularity of eSports is likely to result in more and more potential profit for sports bettors in the years to come.