Quick answer: Matched Betting involves betting on both (or all) outcomes of an event, and using sportsbook rewards to lock in a profit, no matter what happens. Value Betting involves finding and betting on selections whose odds are higher than the true probability of a win would imply, generating profits in the long term.

At some point in your <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting">Matched Betting</a> journey, you’ll probably come across the term ‘<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-value-betting">Value Betting</a>’ and wonder what exactly it means, and how it’s different from Matched Betting.

While they’re both techniques people use to make money through <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/sports-betting-guide">sports betting</a>,&nbsp;there are some pretty significant differences between them. Value Betting is generally considered a more advanced strategy, involving more risk than Matched Betting - but also the potential for greater reward.

In this article, we’ll take you through the following:

Comparing Value Betting And Matched Betting

In many ways, Matched Betting and Value Betting are very similar. Both rely on sports betting (a large and growing market)&nbsp;as part of a strategy to make consistent profits - in neither case are you just placing a bet because you’ve got a good feeling about a horse, or because you’re a lifelong supporter of Wigan Athletic.

Remote betting generated £2.6 billion in gross gambling yield in Great Britain during April 2024–March 2025, with football alone accounting for £1.3 billion.

- <a href="https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/publication/industry-statistics-annual-report-financial-year-april-2024-to-march-2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com">Gambling Commission</a>

There are, however, some very significant differences between the two techniques.

Matched Betting is the strategy of betting both for and against the same outcome. So for example, you might bet that Manchester United win a match, and also that they don’t win a match.

These two types of bet are called a ‘back bet’ and a ‘<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-lay-betting">lay bet</a>’ respectively. Your back bet is your bet that something will happen (i.e. Manchester United winning) and your lay bet is a bet that something won’t happen (that Manchester United won’t win). Your lay bet is placed with a <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-a-betting-exchange">betting exchange</a>, which allows you to bet against other punters, rather than with a bookie.

Between the two bets, you cover all outcomes.

The trick to turning this technique into profit lies in taking advantage of bookie promotions.

Bookies give out free bets like candy in order to attract new customers, and Matched Betting allows you to transform those free bets into predictable profits.

The UK Gambling Commission found that 73% of gamblers who received gambling incentives in the previous 12 months had received them for online betting, showing how central free bets and promotional offers are to the modern sportsbook market.

- <a href="https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/about-us/guide/consumer-experiences-and-attitudes-to-free-bets-and-bonuses?utm_source=chatgpt.com">Gambling Commission</a>

For example, you might see an offer where you have to place a £10 bet (known as a <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/qualifying-bet-guide">qualifying bet</a>) to receive a £10 free bet.

If you match both bets, you can roughly break even on the first bet, and then use your free bet to make a profit.

Value Betting, meanwhile, involves tracking down bets at odds that are higher than they should be. Your profits aren’t guaranteed but, over time, if you consistently bet at inflated odds, you are highly likely to end up in profit.

If a bet is offered at higher odds than its real likelihood of winning would suggest, it’s considered to hold <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-expected-value">positive expected value</a> (+EV).

The difficulty with Value Betting is working out what the true likelihood is of a certain outcome, so that you can compare this with the odds on offer from a bookie and track down bets with +EV.

Professional gamblers will perform exhaustive research and compile huge quantities of information and statistics in order to make these calculations, which is what allows them to make a living from gambling.

Many people assume Value Betting is about predicting more winners than everyone else, but that's rarely the case. Long-term profitability comes from consistently taking prices that are better than the true probability, even when many of those individual bets still lose.

For those of us who aren’t pros, though, there are tools available to help us locate +EV bets and to profit from them. Outplayed’s Pro and Elite membership levels include a range of Value Betting tools, which take all the work out of Value Betting - more on this later on!

Although both Matched Betting and Value Betting involve making money online through sports betting, the processes are quite different.

For each technique, the exact method will vary depending on the offer you’re completing (for Matched Betting) or the type of bet you’re placing (for Value Betting). However, the approximate series of steps for each is as follows:

1. First of all, you’ll need to find an offer to complete. If you’re an Outplayed member, you have access to a vast library of guides to bookie offers, making this first step a doddle. Otherwise, you can manually search bookies’ websites for offers, which are especially likely to be available around major sporting events.

2. Place your qualifying bet. Depending on the terms of the offer, you’ll usually have to place a bet with the bookie to qualify for your reward. Having done so, you need to lay it with a betting exchange - i.e. place a bet on the opposite outcome. This ensures that no matter what happens, you come out with only a small loss, usually of a few pence.

Outplayed members can use our <a href="https://outplayed.com/products/oddsmatcher">Oddsmatcher</a> to help here, which identifies the best matches available resulting in the smallest possible qualifying loss.

3. Receive and use your reward. Most commonly, you’ll receive a free bet once you’ve placed your qualifying bet, or once it’s settled. You follow the same process of finding a good match, ideally using Outplayed’s oddsmatching software: place your free bet, and then lay it on a betting exchange.

4. Profit! Once your bets have settled, you’ll end up with a profit. The exact amount is the profit from your free bet (usually around 80% of the free bet’s value) minus your qualifying loss.

1. Identify a selection with positive expected value. This is definitely the hardest bit about Value Betting! If you’re an Outplayed Pro member, though, you can use our powerful tools to track down bets with positive EV. Otherwise, you’ll need to come up with a system to identify the real likelihood of selections winning and compare it to the odds available from bookies to track down bets with potential profit in them.

2. Place your bet. This part’s dead easy - all you have to do is place a bet with the bookie as usual. You can use Outplayed Pro’s tools to help you decide how much to stake, to maximise your potential profits while minimising risk.

3. Check the results. Once the bet’s settled, make sure to check whether it won and make a note of your profit or loss. It’s important to keep track of your bets when Value Betting, so that you know how much money you’ve made and how successful your selections have been. Happily, Outplayed’s profit tracker allows you to save each bet and tallies your profits, so you can see exactly how much money your Value Betting has made you.

Matched Betting vs Value Betting Processes Summary

Advantages And Disadvantages Of Matched Betting And Value Betting

One of the biggest mistakes people make is judging Value Betting by the outcome of a handful of bets. A strategy with genuine positive expected value can still lose repeatedly in the short term, whereas Matched Betting is designed to remove that uncertainty. Understanding that difference in variance is often what determines whether someone succeeds with either approach.

Value Betting And Matched Betting At Outplayed

While it’s certainly possible to make money from Matched Betting or Value Betting on your own, it’s orders of magnitude easier with <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/our-membership-levels-explained">Outplayed membership</a>. We’ve got a range of tools to help you get the most out of your betting, whichever technique you decide to use.

By using our tools, and following our guides, Outplayed allows you to:

Outplayed Platinum membership gains you access to the following Matched Betting tools and guides:

For experienced matched bettors looking to move on to Value Betting, Outplayed’s Pro and Elite&nbsp;membership levels are the perfect assistant. As well as everything included in the lower membership levels, you gain access to the following Value Betting tools:

Stephanie Sorrell

The Difference Between Value Betting and Matched Betting

Quick answer: while arbitrage betting does increase your risk of being restricted by bookmakers, it can still form a useful part of a Matched Betting strategy. By making use of price boosts, and restricting arbs to accounts that have already been gubbed, you can get the most out of arbitrage alongside Matched Betting while minimising the risk of bookie restrictions.

There comes a point in the journey of most matched bettors when they go to place a <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/qualifying-bet-guide">qualifying bet</a> and realise that they’ve found a matched bet that could actually make them a profit, due to the back odds being higher than the lay odds.

This is known as an arbitrage bet, and it really does allow the bettor to lock in a profit with a single matched bet, without having to make use of an offer or price boost.

However, arbitrage bets are also well known for attracting the attention of bookies, and most <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting">Matched Betting</a> guides advise bettors to steer clear of arbitrage bets, aka ‘arbs’, in order to preserve the health of your bookie accounts.

Still, the prospect of locking in a profit with a single bet, without relying on offers, is bound to be highly attractive to any matched bettor. Many will find themselves wondering if there’s any way they could safely include a level of arbitrage in their Matched Betting strategy.

In this article, we’ll explore to what extent it’s possible, and how you can add arbing into your Matched Betting while minimising the risks it poses.

If you’re reading this article, you probably already have a good idea of how arbing works, so we won’t go into too much detail here. If you want a full rundown of the mechanics of arbitrage betting, though, check out our dedicated <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-arbing-or-arbitrage">guide to arbing</a>.

For now, we’ll just give you a brief sketch of the basics of arbitrage, and how it can generate profits.

The key principle of arbitrage is that it relies on finding favourable odds that cover two or more opposing bets on a single market within one event, so that no matter what happens one of your bets will win, making enough money to generate a profit in spite of the losses from your other bet(s).

Research published in the International Journal of Sport Finance found that one in every three trades analysed in a Super Rugby betting market provided an arbitrage opportunity, with differing bookmaker odds contributing to the observed market inefficiency.

- <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/155862351801300305">International Journal of Sport Finance</a>

The most popular form of arbitrage betting in the UK is bookmaker-exchange arbitrage, where your bet works just like a standard qualifying bet when you’re Matched Betting.

You place a back bet (for a certain outcome) with a bookmaker, and a <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-lay-betting">lay bet</a> (against the same outcome) with a <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-a-betting-exchange">betting exchange</a>. But rather than making a small qualifying loss, so long as the back odds are higher than the lay odds, you’ll emerge with a profit.

You spot particularly good odds for a horse race with the bookmaker BestOdds: odds of 2.3 on Asia Force with BestOdds on the 16:45 Carlisle, and wonder if you might have found a potential arb.

Sure enough, when you compare with the betting exchange Smarkets, you see that the odds there are quite a bit lower, at 2.1, meaning that you’ve found an arbitrage opportunity.

You use a <a href="https://outplayed.com/calculator">Matched Betting</a> or arbitrage calculator to work out your optimal stakes to lock in the greatest possible profit regardless of whether Asia Force does or doesn’t win.

As you can see from the screenshot above, if you place a back stake of £20 on Asia Force with BestOdds, your optimal lay stake is £21.90 with Smarkets, which will result in <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-liability-in-matched-betting">liability</a> of £24.09.

Whether your selection wins or loses, you stand to make a profit of £1.90 when your bets settle.

This isn’t a huge profit, of course, but an arbitrage betting strategy involves building profits over time, with lots of small profits adding up in the long term.

Bookmaker-exchange arbitrage is the easiest model of arbitrage to complete, especially for matched bettors who are used to placing matched bets of this nature.

But it is also possible to arb between two bookmakers, known as bookmaker-bookmaker arbitrage. This is a form of <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-dutching">Dutching</a>, and if you’re able to locate sufficiently favourable odds, it can be just as profitable as bookmaker-exchange arbitrage.

The problem can be locating those odds, as standard odds matching software isn’t designed for dutching - but if you do spot a good bookmaker-bookmaker arbitrage opportunity, you can use a <a href="https://outplayed.com/calculators/dutching-advanced-calculator">Dutching Calculator</a> to work out the optimal odds for your bets.

It’s also possible to arb between two exchanges, in exchange-exchange arbitrage. However, we strongly advise against this, as betting exchanges, which are very happy to accommodate matched bettors and standard arbers, do not appreciate exchange-exchange arbing and may take action by limiting your account or removing your 0% commission rate.

What’s The Difference Between Matched Betting And Arbitrage Betting?

Matched Betting and arbitrage betting have a lot in common, but there are some crucial differences to be aware of.

1. Reliance on offers. As you’ll be aware as a matched bettor, you need offers to complete if you’re Matched Betting, whether you’re doing a standard bet &amp; get or a more complicated <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/horse-racing-refunds">racing refund</a>. Arbitrage betting, however, doesn’t require any offers at all, just favourable odds, which can crop up at any time. Matched Betting is inherently limited by the number of offers available, whereas there aren’t any real limits to the number of arbitrage bets you can complete.

2. Size of profit. Typically, each offer you complete when Matched Betting will hold more significant profit than you’re likely to achieve with a single arbitrage bet.

3. Speed of completion. Because Matched Betting mostly involves placing first a qualifying bet and then a free bet, it’s usually quicker to complete an arbitrage bet, which locks in its profit with a single matched bet.

4. Risk of bookie restrictions. Both strategies do carry a risk of bookies imposing restrictions on your account, but the risk is somewhat lower with Matched Betting, as bookies make their offers available with the specific intention of encouraging bettors to take advantage of them. You should be careful to blend in with regular punters to preserve your account health with both strategies, however.

5. Necessity of favourable odds. Ideally, both matched bettors and arbitrage bettors will want to find favourable odds for their betting. However, it’s possible for matched bettors to make profits even with relatively poor matches, if the free bet they receive as a reward is generous enough - the profits just won’t be quite so high. Arbers, however, cannot make a profit at all if the odds they find aren’t good enough.

The biggest practical difference between the two strategies is often consistency rather than the size of any single profit. Matched betting gives you a defined opportunity through an offer, whereas an arb can disappear before you act. That makes disciplined opportunity selection more valuable than simply chasing volume.

What Are The Risks Of Arbitrage Betting? 

Having established how arbitrage differs from Matched Betting, we can now take a look at why arbitrage might be considered a less ‘safe’ strategy than Matched Betting.

Although arbitrage betting carries very little risk of actually losing money with each bet, an arbitrage betting strategy does hold some risks, of which you should be aware before you start placing arb bets.

A 2025 Princeton University study of live NBA betting found that arbitrage opportunities typically lasted around 13 seconds under favourable conditions and were present for just 4.52% of total observed game time.

- <a href="https://theses-dissertations.princeton.edu/entities/publication/437f7731-67ad-4af7-a1e6-648c1d003d46">Princeton University</a>

However, you shouldn’t let the need for speed take precedence over accuracy. Use tools like an arbitrage calculator to make sure you get your stakes right, enter the details of your bet correctly, and double check your stakes as you enter them. It’s far better to miss out on an arbing opportunity than to risk losing money due to a silly mistake.

The headline arb percentage can be misleading if you ignore how much capital the opportunity actually requires. A smaller percentage return that can be repeated efficiently may be more useful than a larger-looking edge that ties up substantial bookmaker balances or exchange liability for little additional profit.

What Can You Do To Make Arbitrage As Safe As Possible?

It’s wise to be wary about including arbitrage betting in your Matched Betting strategy. As we’ve seen in the previous section, arbitrage betting carries a particularly high risk of incurring bookie restrictions, and it would be a disaster for your Matched Betting strategy if you were to lose access to a profitable account due to a couple of ill-advised arbs.

However, that doesn’t mean it’s impossible to include arbitrage in your Matched Betting; you should simply ensure you go about it sensibly, taking reasonable precautions to limit the risk you expose yourself to.

The very safest way to incorporate arbitrage into a Matched Betting strategy is with price boosts. Bookies regularly offer <a href="https://outplayed.com/price-boosts">price boosts</a> on a range of sports and events, and these are often generous enough to create an arbitrage opportunity.

If you can find lower lay odds at the exchange than the boosted back odds at the bookmaker, you can make a single matched bet and lock in an immediate profit - sometimes quite a significant one.

Because bookies feature price boosts specifically in order to entice bettors, it’s far less suspicious to place a bet with a price boost than it is to place a standard arbitrage bet, so your accounts are much less likely to be limited as a result.

That said, bookies will still notice if you bet on nothing but price boosts, so you should mix in a few mug bets to preserve the health of your accounts.

Another good way to arb in relative safety is by making use of gubbed accounts.

If a bookie has already gubbed you - i.e. removed your ability to take part in offers - then that account can be the perfect way to add in some arbitrage to your betting.

As you’ve already lost access to offers, there’s no real risk to arbing on a gubbed account, as its profitability will already be very limited.

It is possible that the bookie might heavily stake restrict you if they detect your arbing, but if your account would otherwise have lain dormant then this isn’t any great loss.

If you live in the middle of a town or city, sharbing can be a great way to arb safely.

<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-sharbing">Sharbing, or shop arbing</a>, involves placing your back bet in person at a betting shop, then laying your bet with an exchange online.

Because you can bet in reasonable anonymity at a shop, your betting patterns are much harder to track, and you’re much less likely to be spotted by the bookie.

Shops can also be slower to update their odds, which means it may be easier to find arbitrage opportunities.

Obviously, this involves rather more effort than simply betting online from your sofa, but if you have several shops close to your home, it can be a profitable and safe way to include arbitrage in your Matched Betting strategy.

Are There Any Tools That Can Help Make Arbitrage Safe And Profitable?

There are quite a few tools out there that can make a huge difference to the success, security and efficiency of your arbitrage betting.

Most basic are sites like <a href="https://www.oddschecker.com/">Oddschecker</a>, which compares odds from the most popular bookies and a handful of betting exchanges, to show you which are the most generous. It won’t track down arbitrage opportunities on your behalf, but it will give you an idea of where you might find them.

Below, you’ll see a screenshot of Oddschecker’s results for an upcoming EFL match, with the best available odds for each win market selection highlighted in green.

Even with Oddschecker, though, you’ll spend a lot of time searching for good arbing opportunities, which limits the profitability of your strategy.

Far better would be a tool that locates good arbitrage opportunities on your behalf, so all you have to do is place your bets.

And that’s where Outplayed’s <a href="https://outplayed.com/products/oddsmatcher">Oddsmatcher</a> comes in. Available with all membership tiers, the Oddsmatcher constantly scans British bookies and betting exchanges for close matches between back and lay odds. Although it’s primarily designed for Matched Betting, it can equally be used for arbitrage betting.

Each match it displays is given a percentage rating, indicating how close a match it is. Anything over 100% is an arbitrage opportunity, with the potential to make you a profit. You should be wary of matches over 110%, though, as there’s a good chance they’ll turn out to be due to a palpable error.

For <a href="https://outplayed.com/pricing">Diamond</a> members, the Price Boost Tracker is another fantastic tool that makes it a breeze to locate good price boosts that allow you to lock in an arbitrage bet - and one that’s far less likely to attract bookie attention than a standard arbitrage bet.

It’s updated all the time as price boosts are added by bookies, and it shows the current lay odds available with the main British exchanges, so you can see how much profit you stand to make (the profit shown is for a £10 bet, as price boost stakes are often limited to £10).

There’s no denying that arbitrage betting does carry some risks, and matched bettors should think carefully about how best to incorporate arbitrage betting into their strategy.

However, arbitrage betting has the potential to significantly improve your profits, especially if you’ve got gubbed accounts that aren’t currently making you any money.

And if you’re new to both arbitrage betting and Matched Betting, and you’re wondering how you can find out more, take a look at the <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting">Outplayed Beginner’s Guide to Matched Betting</a> for all the information you need to get started.

Alternatively, if you’re raring to go and ready to get started, take out the Outplayed free trial to gain access to £850+ profit from over 40 sign up offers, completely free of charge.

Is It Safe To Arb As Part Of Your Matched Betting Strategy?

Paul Trevor

Quick answer: &nbsp;Horse racing <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-value-betting">Value Betting</a> &nbsp;is a long-term betting strategy that focuses on finding horses priced at higher odds than their true chance of winning. Rather than trying to predict every winner, successful value bettors aim to repeatedly place positive expected value (+EV) bets where the bookmaker has underestimated a horse's probability. Although individual bets regularly lose, consistently identifying value opportunities can produce profitable results over hundreds or thousands of bets.

Horse Racing&nbsp;Value Betting Background

<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/horse-racing-history">Horse racing</a> is one of the world’s oldest sports, going back thousands of years - and <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/how-to-bet-on-horses">betting on horse racing</a> has been going on, in one form or another, for almost as long.

Nowadays, there are horse races year round in the UK, with some festivals in particular, such as <a href="https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham-festival/">Cheltenham</a>, attracting huge attention, both from bookies and the public.

"The UK Gambling Commission's latest Gambling Survey found that betting participation rose to 12.4% during a period covering major sporting events, while betting on horses or dogs increased from 3.9% to 6.6%. This highlights how major horse racing festivals drive significant betting activity, making efficient pricing even more important for value bettors."&nbsp;

- <a href="https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/blog/post/gambling-survey-for-great-britain-year-2-2024-wave-2-results-published?utm_source=chatgpt.com">UK Gambling Commission</a>

Naturally, the chief object of anyone placing bets on horse racing is to turn a profit, but that’s not nearly as simple as it sounds. <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/how-are-betting-odds-determined">Bookies set their odds</a> in such a way as to always make a profitable margin on the bets they take - meaning that punters will always end up losing money overall.

However, there is a statistically sound way to make money from horse racing, which is known as Value Betting. This technique, employed by both professional sports bettors and experienced recreational bettors, involves finding and placing bets at higher odds than the likelihood of a win would imply - meaning that, in the long run, you can expect to end up in profit.

In this article, we’ll explain what Value Betting is, how it works in horse racing, and the strategies and tools you can use to make a profit through Value Betting on horse racing yourself.

We know that Value Betting involves betting at higher odds than the real likelihood of a win would imply - but how exactly does that work?

Well, a bet with higher odds than the true probability of a win would imply results in positive expected value. While that bet isn’t guaranteed to win, you would expect to end up with a profit if you placed a large number of similar bets long term.

This is a very different technique from <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting">Matched Betting</a>, where you know in advance what your profit will be from each bet, meaning that you aren’t facing any real risk in your betting activity, except that of making an error.

Value Betting does involve risk. Although you would expect to end up in profit in the long term, in the short term you will see upswings and downswings, which you need to be able to weather.

We therefore don’t recommend Value Betting as a strategy unless you’re an experienced matched bettor or sports bettor and you have a good starting bankroll, of around £1000 or more.

When it comes to Value Betting on horse racing specifically, there are a number of strategies you can use to extract profit from the bookies. The most basic involves simply identifying bets whose true probability is higher than the odds would imply, perhaps because of conditions the bookie hasn’t accounted for, or a last minute change to the competitors in a race.

The main problem with this method, other than the difficulty of identifying those bets in the first place, is that bookies tend to be aware of when their odds have been higher than they should be, and consistently betting at those inflated odds is a surefire way to attract a bookie’s attention, risking a swift <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/top-tips-to-avoid-being-gubbed">gubbing</a>.

But there are other, subtler horse racing Value Betting methods out there, which we’ll delve into later on.

How To Identify Horse Racing&nbsp;Value Bets

Value Betting hinges on the concept of ‘<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-implied-probability">implied probability</a>’, which refers to the fact that any set of odds can be used to indicate the probability of an outcome occurring. For example, odds of 2 (1/1 or evens in fractional odds) indicate a 50% chance of that outcome occurring, whereas odds of 4 (3/1 in fractional odds) indicate a 25% chance of that outcome occurring.

Of course, the fact that a bet is listed at odds of 4 with a bookie doesn’t mean that its true chance of winning is actually 25%, because probability isn’t the only factor used by bookies to determine their odds.

Normally, a bookie’s odds will be lower than the true probability of a win, allowing for their <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/how-betting-sites-make-money">profit margin</a>. Sometimes, though, a bookie might not have adjusted their odds to account for changes to the true probability of an outcome, or they might not be aware of a factor affecting it.

One of the biggest mistakes bettors make is assuming every price bigger than their own estimate represents value. The edge comes from having a probability model that consistently outperforms the market, not from disagreeing with the bookmaker for the sake of it. Small but repeatable pricing advantages are far more valuable than chasing spectacular-looking odds.

For example, you might have good reason to believe that a horse’s true chance of winning a race&nbsp;is 20%, which equates to odds of 5 (4/1 in fractional odds), sometimes known as 'true odds'. If, therefore, you managed to find a bookie offering odds of 6, you would have a bet that holds positive expected value.

Of course, you’d still expect your bet to lose 4 times out of 5, so you wouldn’t expect to make a profit from any individual bet. However, in the long run, betting at those odds and with this true probability of a win would statistically result in a profit.

If you placed 100 such bets with stakes of £10 each, you’d expect 20 of them to win and 80 to lose. On your losing bets, you’d therefore lose £800, but your winning bets would win you £1000 - meaning you’d have made an overall profit of £200.

On this basis, each individual bet’s expected value would be £2 (even though it wouldn’t be possible actually to make £2 in profit from any single bet at these odds).

This illustrates exactly why Value Betting works in the long term - but it does rely on your placing a large volume of bets over time. You’ll see ups and downs, but the more bets you place, the more closely your total profit will reflect the expected value of all the bets you’ve placed.

Successful Value Betting in horse racing requires extensive research. You need to know everything there is to know about the horses, courses, trainers and jockeys&nbsp;involved in any given race.

This probably means compiling your own statistical database and using this information to calculate the ‘true’ probability of a win for all competitors in a race, and then converting those probabilities into the true odds for each horse.

Having done so - and assuming your results are accurate - you can then compare these true odds to those available at the bookies.

"British racecourses attracted 4,799,730 spectators during 2024, according to the British Horseracing Authority. Large, competitive racing markets generate vast amounts of betting activity, making accurate pricing and probability assessment increasingly important for bettors searching for value."

- <a href="https://www.britishhorseracing.com/racing-report-full-year-2024/">British Horse Racing Authority</a>

You’ll end up with something along the lines of the following:

As we can see, for most of the runners the odds available from the bookie are lower than the true odds, which is what we’d expect, as the bookies make their money by adding a margin onto their odds .

However, Ruler Legend is available at significantly higher odds than we’ve calculated as the true odds, making for a Value Betting opportunity.

As the true odds are high, we certainly won’t be expecting to win this particular bet - but it still makes a valuable part of a long term Value Betting strategy. 3% of the time we would expect it to win, with those winnings being high enough to make up for the 97% of the time when it loses.

We can calculate the expected value of this bet by multiplying each possible outcome of the event by its probability of occurring, then adding up all those results.

For a £10 stake at odds of 41, you would win £400 on a successful bet, and lose your £10 stake if it lost. The EV can therefore be calculated as follows:

EV = (0.03 x £400) + (0.97 x -£10) = £12 - £9.70 = £2.30

Different Horse Racing&nbsp;Value Betting Strategies

Although the basic principles of Value Betting are relatively straightforward, there are more complex strategies you can employ, beyond simply looking for singles bets at inflated odds.

These have the benefits of making your Value Betting activity less obvious to a bookie, which will help your accounts stay healthier for longer.

The strongest long-term value betting strategies rarely rely on a single market or bet type. Spreading your activity across win, each-way and other racing markets not only creates more opportunities, but also produces betting patterns that more closely resemble those of recreational punters, helping maintain account longevity.

Bookies will offer a certain number of paid places on horse racing bets, depending on the number of runners involved. When you place an each way bet, you’re placing two separate bets in one, both on a horse to win and to hit one of the paid places.

This type of bet can be particularly profitable for Value Betting, because bookies set the odds for places at a certain fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5), rather than separately assessing a horse’s chances of hitting a paid place.

It’s therefore often possible to make <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/how-does-an-each-way-bet-work">each way bets</a> that hold fantastic expected value in the place part of the bet, without inflated win odds that attract the bookie’s attention.

While it’s certainly possible, through extensive research and statistical analysis, to locate each way value bets for yourself, Outplayed’s powerful <a href="https://outplayed.com/products/extra-place-master">Extra Place Master</a> is a total game-changer.

Using our proprietary algorithms, it analyses all runners to produce reliable true odds for each race and compares these to the odds available at the bookies. Whenever a bet holds positive expected value, it will appear on your results, making it a matter of seconds to click through to the bookie and place your bet.

The Extra Place Master is responsible for tens of thousands of profits in horse racing Value Betting for <a href="https://outplayed.com/pro">Outplayed Pro</a> members.

Here's a real example of our members results from using the Extra Place Master.

Accumulators (Lucky15s)

Another particularly valuable Value Betting horse racing strategy is to take advantage of each way <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/types-of-accumulator-bets">accumulator bets</a>, such as <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-a-lucky-15-bet">Lucky 15s</a>. This is a bet made up of 15 individual bets across 4 selections, as follows:

When placed each way, you get a total of 30 individual bets all rolled into one.

Because this type of accumulator bet often involves additional bonuses from the bookies, this strategy takes the benefits of simple each way bets and multiplies them, resulting in betslips that hold incredibly high value.

Again, it is possible to do all the research required to identify accumulator horse racing bets with value manually, but Outplayed’s tools make this process a matter of seconds rather than hours.

The <a href="https://outplayed.com/products/lucky-finder">Lucky Finder</a>, available with an Outplayed Pro subscription, puts together each way Lucky 15 bets with positive expected value on your behalf - all you have to do is add the selections to your betslip with the bookie and then place your bet.

Once again, this tool is responsible for tens of thousands of pounds of profit for Outplayed members. Although there will be ups and downs in your profit from day to day, and even month to month, over time it’s highly likely that your total profit will match your total EV pretty closely, as you can see in our member profit graph below.

Here's a real example of our members results from using the Lucky Finder.

Horse Racing Value Betting Vs Other Value Bets

Horse racing Value Betting is one of the most popular types of Value Betting because, with the help of Outplayed’s tools, it’s particularly easy to place enough bets to start seeing profits relatively quickly.

But there are other forms of Value Betting out there, on other sports such as golf and football, and using other strategies.

If you’re a matched bettor considering taking up Value Betting, horse racing Value Betting is one of the best places to start, especially if you’re an Outplayed Pro member.

The process of placing and tracking your bets is incredibly straightforward, both with the Extra Place Master and the Lucky Finder, and both types of bets can actually benefit your account health, helping to balance out your Matched Betting activity and <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/top-tips-to-avoid-being-gubbed">avoid being gubbed</a> for longer.

In short, Value Betting on horse racing is one of the best ways to start as a new value bettor, so long as you’re already an experienced matched bettor with a good bankroll to get you going.

To find out more about our Value Betting tools, take a look at our guide to <a href="https://outplayed.com/pro">Outplayed Pro</a>, which takes you through our advanced Matched Betting and Value Betting tools that can help you maximise your sports betting profits, month after month after month.

Common Mistakes New Horse Racing Value Bettors Make

New value bettors often focus too heavily on finding winners rather than identifying value. Other common mistakes include overestimating their own probability assessments, failing to manage their bankroll, chasing losses after inevitable losing streaks, and placing too few bets for expected value to work over the long term. Successful value betting depends on consistency, discipline and accurate probability modelling rather than short-term results.&nbsp;

Ready To Find Horse Racing Value Bets Faster?&nbsp;

Estimating probabilities manually can take hours of research for every race. Outplayed&nbsp;helps simplify the process with expected value calculators, implied probability tools, betting trackers and educational resources designed to help UK bettors identify potential value betting opportunities more efficiently.&nbsp;

<a href="https://outplayed.com/user/register#1">Sign up for a free trial</a>, or alternatively dive right in with an <a href="https://outplayed.com/pro">Outplayed Pro</a> membership if you're keen to get going with Value Betting right away.

Frequently Asked Questions About Horse Racing Value Betting

Is value betting in horse racing profitable?

Value Betting In Horse Racing

A betting exchange is a marketplace that allows people to exchange bets with each other.&nbsp; It’s the stock exchange of sports betting and is vital to <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting">betting strategies like Matched Betting</a>.

In this article, you’ll be guided through how a Betting Exchange works, how to profit from it and which Betting Exchanges are available.

A Betting Exchange allows customers to buy (known as a back bet) and sell (known as a lay bet) on the outcome of sporting events.

In simple terms, it’s a platform where bettors are able to place bets against each other.&nbsp;

We have mentioned sporting events but the exchange isn’t limited to just sporting events and can offer odds on things like who will win the next general election.

For the purposes of Matched Betting, having the option to lay against the outcome of an event makes it possible to lock in profits.&nbsp;

With standard bookmakers you’re limited to the odds the bookies offer and can only place back bets.&nbsp; This means that traditional bookmakers such as Paddy Power and Coral effectively accept any <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-liability-in-matched-betting">liability</a> and lay the bet themselves, betting exchanges are a different beast.

You’ll often find that the odds at a betting exchange are higher than a bookies.

This is in part due to bookies wanting to give themselves the upper hand and make larger profits.

The other element to this is the fact that betting exchange odds are determined by customers betting against each other in a free market with odds at 100% and no margin needed.&nbsp;

When you first use any exchange, it can seem very overwhelming with new terminology and a different layout to what a traditional bookmakers might look like.

However, it’s not as intimidating as you might think and will soon become second nature once you’re accustomed to Matched Betting.

One thing to keep in mind is that by default, the betting exchange will display odds in a decimal format rather than the usual fractional odds.

This won’t cause any problems though, as each bookmaker also provides an option to display <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/how-are-betting-odds-determined">odds</a> as decimals.

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