How Does Tennis Handicap Betting Work?

Tennis is one of the most popular sports to bet on around the world. The 12-month tournament calendar means there are almost always matches to bet on, and the tennis markets are vast too.

However, tennis is also a very unique sport when it comes to scoring. It has very specific terminology, for example – Love, Ace, Deuce, Set - so it can be a little confusing when it comes to deciphering betting markets.

One common tennis market offered by bookies is handicap betting.

This is a useful tool for sports bettors as it can open up more varied betting options and provide much more profitable tennis betting odds.

So, how does tennis handicap betting work? Let’s break it down.

Handicap Betting

For those unfamiliar with handicap betting, the basic practice is to give one player or team a virtual advantage or disadvantage against their opponent.

Handicap betting works best when you have mis-matched opponents, that is, one clear favourite and an outsider or underdog.

In this scenario, betting on the favourite in the regular Match Winner market would usually come with restrictive low odds that just aren’t worth betting on. Meanwhile, betting on the outsider is usually not advisable either.

However, with handicap betting, you can choose to give the favourite a disadvantage that they have to overcome or you can choose to give the underdog an advantage.

This levels-up the playing field between the two opponents from a betting point of view and produces much more attractive odds to bet on.

How Does Handicap Work In Tennis?

Before we go any further, if you need a refresher on how tennis scores work you can read our guide here.

As a basic summary, tennis is scored in points, points win games, and games win sets. The player who wins the most sets, wins the match.

Most tennis matches follow a ‘Best of Three’ model in both the men’s and women’s game. There are exceptions, however, most notably men’s Grand Slam tennis which follows a ‘Best of Five’ sets model.

Tennis handicap betting works by giving one opponent an advantage or disadvantage either in games or sets.

Consequently, with tennis handicap betting, the winner of the match isn’t really important, it’s the actual score in terms of games and sets that matters. That is what will determine whether you have won or lost your bet.

Understanding Positive And Negative Tennis Handicap Bets

Tennis handicap bets can be either positive or negative. This is shown by either a plus (+) or minus (–) before the odds on the bookmakers site.

A positive handicap is where you give one player in a tennis match a virtual advantage, say for example +2.5 games, +3.5 games or +1.5 sets.

A negative handicap is where you give one player in a tennis match a virtual disadvantage, for example -2.5 games, -3.5 games or -1.5 sets.

When the match is over, the handicap is then added or subtracted from the actual match score to determine whether your bet has won. So, let’s take a look at how tennis handicap betting works in practice.

Tennis Game Handicap Betting

The example below shows a tennis handicap betting market in a match against Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula.

Here you can see that Pegula has a +2.5 game handicap, while Gauff has a -2.5 game handicap. Gauff is the match favourite.

Let’s say, for example, Gauff wins the match in three sets with a score of 3 – 6, 6 – 4, 6 – 3.

In total, Gauff would have won 15 games (3+6+6) while Pegula would have won 13 games (6+4+3).

If you’d taken the +2.5 handicap bet on Pegula you would win.

This is because you add the +2.5 handicap games to the actual 13 games she won which gives a total of 15.5 games.

This is higher than Gauff’s 15 games, so therefore the +2.5 handicap bet on Pegula would win despite her losing the match.

Conversely, if you had taken the -2.5 handicap bet on Gauff, you would have lost the bet.

That’s because if you subtract -2.5 from Gauff’s total of 15 games, this would be 12.5 games. This is lower than Pegula’s 13 games that she won in the match, so the bet would lose.

For this bet to win, Gauff would have had to win three more games than Pegula over the course of the match to overcome the -2.5 game handicap.

Tennis Set Handicap Betting

When it comes to tennis handicap betting on sets, it follows the same principles as game handicaps, but has fewer options.

In a normal ‘Best of Three’ set match, the set handicap will always be +1.5 sets or -1.5 sets. That’s because the winner of the match only needs to win two sets.

The example below is for a match between Alex De Minaur and Jack Draper. In this case De Minaur has a +1.5 set handicap, and Draper has a -1.5 set handicap. In this match, Draper is the favourite to win.

Let’s say for example, Draper wins the match 2 – 1. So, Draper has won two sets and De Minaur has won one set.

If you had taken the +1.5 set handicap for De Minaur, then you would have won the bet.

That’s because when you add the 1.5 set handicap to the actual one set De Minaur won, it gives a total of 2.5 sets which is higher than Draper’s two sets. So, although De Minaur lost the match, the handicap bet would have won.

Conversely, if you’d bet on the -1.5 handicap on Draper, then it would have lost. That's because you would subtract the 1.5 handicap from the two sets he won, leaving 0.5 sets, which is lower than De Minaur’s one set.

Draper would have to win the match 2-0 in order for this bet to win.

Tennis 5-Set Handicap Betting

As previously mentioned, the majority of tennis matches follow the ‘Best of Three’ set model. However, how does tennis handicap betting work in a ‘Best of Five’ set format?

In terms of games, it is exactly the same. Game handicaps will be offered based on the overall difference between the amount of games each player has won at the end of the match.

It, therefore, doesn’t matter how many sets are played, only the number of games that have been won. You will, however, find more game handicap markets offering wider margins in points in the five set matches.

With set handicap betting, rather than just having the -1.5 and +1.5 markets, you will also find handicap markets for +2.5 and -2.5 in the ‘Best of Five’ matches. This is because a player has to win at least three sets to win the match.

If we take an example of Casper Ruud beating Ben Shelton three sets to one in a Grand Slam match.

If we took a +2.5 handicap bet on Shelton, then even though he lost the match 3-1, he would still win the bet. That’s because the additional 2.5 handicap added to the one set he has won would give him 3.5, therefore bettering the 3 sets won by Ruud.

Whereas, the -2.5 bet on Ruud would lose because his three sets minus the 2.5 handicap would result in 0.5 sets which is lower than Shelton’s one set.

However, if Rudd had won 3-0, then this bet would win as it would be enough to overcome the -2.5 handicap.

Tennis Handicap Betting Odds

The primary advantage of betting on handicap markets is the increase in tennis betting odds that it brings.

In the examples below, you can see the increase in tennis betting odds, when you use the handicap markets. This is a match between favourite Carlos Alcaraz and underdog Ugo Humbert.

In the normal match winner market, Alcaraz has odds of just 1.16 to win the match. A £20 bet on Alcaraz at these odds would return £23.33, a profit of £3.33.

If we, instead, look at betting on Alcaraz with a -1.5 set handicap, then the odds increase to 1.50. A £20 bet on this would return £30.00, a profit of £10.00.

Alternatively, if we decide to bet on Alcaraz with a -4.5 game handicap, then the odds increase again to 2.20. A £20 bet on this handicap market would return £44, a profit of £24.00.

With a difference of £3.33 profit from the basic Match Winner market to potential £10 and £24 profit from the handicap markets, you can see why many sports bettors take advantage of handicap betting.

This, of course, scales up, so the higher the stake, the more profit you’ll receive. However, in order for your bet to win, your chosen player must meet the handicap requirements that you have chosen, whether positive or negative.

Pros And Cons Of Handicap Betting In Tennis

There are both advantages and disadvantages in tennis handicap betting..

Pros

• Increased odds

• Find added value in low odds markets

• Every game and set counts in handicap betting so it can be more interesting

• Bet can win even if your chosen player doesn’t

Cons

• Can be a little confusing to some

• Needs an informed, strategic approach

• Unpredictable outcomes are common in tennis as are player retirements which can affect your handicap bets

Tips On Tennis Handicap Betting

Consider Tennis Playing Surface

Very rarely does a playing surface have so much influence in sport as it does in tennis. There are three main surfaces – clay, grass and hard court and how well a player performs is largely down to how well they can play on a specific surface.

Therefore, knowing which surface a tournament is being played on is vital when making your tennis bets. Although most of the top players can adapt and play well on all surfaces, there are some specialists too. This can sway a result, especially with handicap betting when every game counts.

Rafael Nadal was known as the King of Clay, for example, because 14 of his 22 Grand Slam titles were won on a clay surface at Roland Garros. Whereas Daniil Medvedev has a much more impressive record on hard court than any other surface.

Research Form, Rankings, Seeds and Stats

There are some quick and easy ways to check how well a tennis player is performing. One is the world rankings and the other is tournament seeding.

World rankings roll-over from the previous year so they don’t always give the most up-to-date information, however, they can give a guide on the calibre and quality of a player. Plus, they can tell us if a player is moving up the rankings or moving down them.

Also, most tennis tournaments have seeds, which are considered to be the top players playing in that event. If a player is seeded, then they are expected to do well.

Finally, there is a deluge of stats online and on both the ATP and WTA websites that show every statistic you could ever want on each player. Looking at current player form, not only in terms of wins, but also in terms of games and sets will help to keep you well-informed when placing your handicap bets.

Research Head-To-Head Results

Former head-to-head results are a great place to start when looking at tennis handicap betting. Even if a player is in good form, or has a higher ranking, they will still come up against certain players that they struggle to beat.

It could be a mis-match in style, a left-hander, someone who plays with a lot of spin, or a serving specialist. If the previous match-ups show that the scores are always quite close then avoid betting on a large handicap market.

Alternatively, if a player rarely wins games or sets against the same opponent, then a big handicap bet might be worth taking.

Tennis Handicap Betting Summary

Handicap betting can look daunting, but when you break it down, it’s just a little bit of maths. Plus, you can use both the negative and positive handicap markets to your advantage.

If you think the favourite is going to win by a large margin, then don’t waste your money on a low odds Match Winner market, bet on the favourite with a significant negative handicap.

Alternatively, If you think it’s going to be a close match, then consider betting on the underdog with a positive handicap bet.

Both options will increase your tennis betting odds immensely, give you more varied betting markets and make the individual game/set split a little more interesting too.