How To Calculate Football Betting Odds And Payouts

Football is the most popular sport in the United Kingdom and when it comes to sports betting, it takes the top spot too.  Therefore, it’s no shock that the bookies roll out the red carpet to their customers with the football betting offerings.

The football betting markets are flooded with different types of bets to accommodate every betting desire and entice punters.  But, are the football punters getting value?

Calculating odds is an incredibly complex practice and involves a lot of specialist people and software.  If we’re honest, the bookies aren’t going to tell us how they do it and the margins they add on to football odds.

During this article we’ll walk through the factors and considerations that bookies take into account when setting odds for football bets, the different types of odds and provide some examples of calculating football bet winnings.

How Do The Bookies Calculate Football Odds?

The bookies don’t just pick a number out of the air when allocating odds to football betting markets.  They use a combination of specialist software, specialist analysts and mathematicians.  

If we’re truthful, there’s a huge amount of effort undertaken and the complexities are probably something that would be enough to cause our heads to explode.

For that reason, we’ll discuss things at a much higher level.

Data Analysis

This is top of the list and by far the most important factor when calculating odds. Gone are the old days of bookmakers recording bets in a physical book at the side of a race track or football pitch and adjusting their odds according to the bets received.

As things moved on, so did the technology and the bookies approach to setting odds.  These days, they employ odds compilers, traders, and analysts to help do the number crunching and create the betting markets.

Combine these experts with the very latest tools, software and algorithms and they produce near perfect odds from millions of lines of database information.

One thing to mention is that a lot of odds compiling is outsourced to specialist companies.  This can mean near identical odds across multiple bookmakers as some will use the same odds compiling companies and some bookies will follow what other bookies are doing. 

Cash Forecasts

After the data analysis, the bookies need to include the cash forecast.  We did tell you calculating odds wasn’t straight forward.

Bookies are like elephants, they forget nothing.  When looking at cash forecasts, they will refer to databases of past projections to help refine the figures.  They then combine this with incredibly intelligent algorithms to project what cashflow they are expecting to be bet on individual markets.

The question is, what’s the importance of cash forecasts? By projecting the cash flow expected on every single market, they can monitor balances easier and avoid losing too much money.  

If the cash projection was low on a particular event, it’s possible that the bookies might incentivise the odds for customers to try and encourage more money into that market.  This can work to the customers advantage sometimes.

The Vig

Also known as the ‘margin’ or ‘juice’, this is the adjustment to odds that bookies make in order to give them an edge and make their profits.  

It might seem a bit unfair but hey, they are a business at the end of the day.  This is also a reason that a lot of bettors use betting exchanges to place their bets.

So what sort of margin or vig do the bookies take?  An average online bookmaker margin ranges between 3% and 5% whilst retail bookies are slightly higher due to overheads.

Now we’ve established that the odds rarely reflect the actual implied probability (likelihood) of an event happening.   So what might that look like?

Example:

If both results have the same percent probability, you’d expect the odds to be even (1/1 fractional or 2.0 decimal).  However, once the bookies have applied their margin, you could be looking at odds of anything between 1.5 (1/2) and 1.91 (10/11).

Understanding Football Betting Odds

Okay, so we’ve looked at the methodology that the bookies use to calculate the football betting odds but what do they actually mean?

In simple terms, odds indicate what chance there is of something happening.  Irrespective of what format odds appear in, they give you key information as to who the favourites and outsiders are in any competition.

In the betting industry, odds come in three formats:

• Fractional

• Decimal

• Moneyline

Fractional

Fractional odds are the odds that most casual bettors are used to seeing and are dominant in the UK and Irish betting markets. They come in formats such as 5/1 or 8/1 for example.

• Numerator: This is the first number in the fraction and indicates the profit on a bet

• Denominator: This is the second number and indicates the amount of stake required. This is always based on a £1 stake.

Using the example of 8/1 and a £1 stake, it would be like this:

• £1 x 8 = £8 profit

• Total returns = £8 (profit) + £1 (stake) = £9

Obviously, people don’t only stake £1 so an example when using a £5 stake would be:

• £5 x 8 = £40 profit

• Total returns = £40 (profit) + £5 (stake) = £45

Decimal

Decimal odds are the most straight-forward of all odds formats and are used in Europe, Canada and Australia.  They are also the favoured odds format for matched bettors.

Decimal odds stipulate what you would get back for each £1 you stake (this includes your original stake). 

The good news is the conversion from fractional odds to decimal odds is very logical.  You’re basically adding one decimal point to the fractional odds.  As an example of fractional odds of 7/1:

• Numerator / Denominator + 1

• 7 / 1 = 7 + 1 = 8.0 decimal odds

Let’s say you placed a £10 bet on Watford to beat Man City in a cup game at odds of 8.0 and the unexpected happened. What would the calculations be:

• £10 (stake) x 8.0 (odds) = £80 returns (£70 profit aft the stake is deducted)

Of course, the odds aren’t always this straight-forward so let’s look at a more obscure example of fractional odds at 11/5:

• Numerator / Denominator + 1

• 11 / 5 = 2.2 + 1 = 3.2 decimal odds

Moneyline (American) Odds

Thankfully, you’re unlikely to deal with moneyline odds when betting in the UK on football matches.  We say this as they are a little more complex than the other two formats but it’s not a bad thing to be aware of and understand them.

There are no fractions or decimals as such.  Moneyline odds are displayed as either positive or negative figures and are based on a $100 stake.  We know, the Americans have to go big on everything.

In layman's terms, positive odds are odds against a result and negative odds are the same as odds on in fractions. 

Here’s an example:

• A team with +400 to win a match = $100 (stake) + 400 = $500 returns / $400 profit

• A team with -400 to win a match = $400 (stake) - 400 = $500 returns / $100 profit

We get it, all these different numbers can get quite confusing and converting between three different formats is a nightmare.

Rest easy, there’s help at hand.  You can use the Odds Converter Calculator to do all the work for you.

Finding The Best Odds

It’s all about the odds but I suppose that’s the idea of this article.

Let’s move forward and see if we can give you an advantage when it comes to finding the best odds for your football bets.

The first thing you should look out for is offers and promotions.  The bookies often offer deals such as Bet £10 and Get £10 if your bet loses.  This offer is quite frequent at Bet365 on high profile football matches.

Another regular (almost daily) offer is boosted odds on selected markets such as first goalscorer, player shots on target and pre-made bet builders.

Other useful tools are odds comparison websites such as OddsPortal.com and oddschecker.  If you’re looking to bet on a particular football match or considering a football acca, these sites provide you with the odds on offer from multiple bookmakers so you can pick the highest odds available.

A firm favourite at Outplayed is oddschecker as they have great coverage of football odds and all the other major sports too and they don’t just stop there.

Once you enter the football section, you’ll be shown the upcoming football matches and a snapshot of the highest odds available for home wins, draws and away wins for each game. If you divert the gaze about the matches, they provide the best odds on all matches for different over/under markets, draw no bet (DNB), both teams to score (BBTS) etc.

Another thing to mention is oddschecker trawl the bookies to find the best sign up offers and they list some of these down the right hand side of the page.

Once you click into a specific match, you’re then given a load of information relating to that particular game.  You can see the odds on offer for win and draw at over 25 bookies with the top odds available highlighted above the individual odds.

In addition to this, they have a whole range of betting markets for that match at the top of the page.  These include player bets, score bets, price boosts etc. 

So, we’ve looked at how the odds are determined, the formats they come in and where to find the best odds.

There’s such a variety of football bets that you can bet on, what you can expect to get back from winning bets isn’t always straight-forward.  

During the next few sections, we’ll look at some different types of football bets and guide you through how to calculate your potential returns.

In addition to this, if you’re not keen on number crunching or are short of time, we’ll provide tools to help you calculate the returns.

Calculating Football Bet Payouts

So, we’ve looked at how the odds are determined, the formats they come in and where to find the best odds.

There’s such a variety of football bets that you can bet on, what you can expect to get back from winning bets isn’t always straight-forward.  

During the next few sections, we’ll look at some different types of football bets and guide you through how to calculate your potential returns.

In addition to this, if you’re not keen on number crunching or are short of time, we’ll provide tools to help you calculate the returns.

Calculating Football Single Bets

The majority of football single bets are win only bets where you are picking one team to win a match.  However, betting on a draw also falls into this category along with any other football bet where you are betting on one outcome. 

Looking at an example of a match between Man City and Newcastle United, these can include:

Single bets are the easiest bets to calculate as you are simply multiplying the stake by the odds.

Let’s look at the potential returns from the under 7 corners bet at odds of 9.0 (8/1) with a stake of £10

• 9.0 (odds) x £10 (stake) = £90 returns

• £90 returns less your £10 stake = £80 profit

Calculating Football Double Bets

One step up from the single bet, you’re adding 2 selections to create a double bet. 

Double bet calculations are slightly different in that the odds for each selection are multiplied by each other and then the stake to determine the returns.

Sticking with the Man City v Newcastle United game, we have kept the Under 7 Corners and added Both Teams to Score - Yes.

Individually, these two selections had odds of 9.0 for under 7 corners and 1.44 for both teams to score.

Assuming both of these selections were correct, this is how the returns calculation of your double bet would look:

• Under 7 Corners 9.0 x Both Teams to Score 1.44 = 12.96 total odds (which the bookie rounds up to 13.00)

• 13.00 (odds) x £10 stake = £130 returns

• £130 returns less your £10 stake = £120 profit

Calculating double bet returns isn’t too taxing on the brain but you can make things a little easier by using the Double Bet Calculator.

Calculating Football Accumulator Bets

More often called ‘Accas’, accumulator bets are extremely popular in football betting as they offer very rewarding returns for very little outlay.  This is mainly because they’re difficult to predict.

A football acca requires you to pick a minimum of four outcomes from four different matches.  Anything below four selections reverts the bet to a single, double or treble bet.  

This will create a four-fold accumulator, but you can increase this to a five-fold acca, six-fold acca etc.

As with most bet multiples, the odds of your choices are multiplied to give the total odds.  This is then multiplied by your stake to determine the potential returns.

Let’s look at a real-life example of a football accumulator involving an upcoming set of matches in the Premier League.

So, using the above selections, what do the returns look like:

Given that the four above selections would have returned £138 if they were placed as singles and won, it’s easy to understand why punters like to have a dabble with football accumulators.  The very same selections in a four-fold acca make over £1000 more profit.

Also, don’t forget, those selections as single bets would cost you £40 in stakes as opposed to just £10 for the acca.

Rather than having to work all these figures out yourself, let the Accumulator Calculator do the work for you.

Calculating Lucky 15 Football Bets

Lucky 15 bets are most renowned in horse racing but they are widely used in football betting too. Be warned, the Lucky 15 bet takes calculations to another level due to the bet combinations involved.

Speaking of bet combinations, let’s have a look at what structure the Lucky 15 bet has:

• 4 Single Bets

• 6 Double Bets

• 4 Treble Bets

• 1 Four-fold Bet

Let’s look at a real life example of a football Lucky 15 bet and try to keep it as simple as possible:

So, our four selections are as follows:

1. Newcastle to win at odds of 3.30 (1/3)
2. Tottenham to win at odds of 2.45 (6/4)
3. Everton to win at odds of 5.00 (4/1)
4. Southampton to win at odds of 6.00 (5/1)

Okay, we’ve now got the information we need to calculate the possible returns on this bet.

As with our previous bets, we have to multiply the odds of each selection for each combination within the Lucky 15.

All of the following calculations are based on a £1 stake.

Single Bets Calculations

Double Bet Calculations

Multiply the odds of each team and multiply by the stake.

Treble Bet Calculations

Multiply the odds of each team and multiply by the stake.

Four-fold Bet Calculations

Multiply the odds of each team and multiply by the stake.

Now we have the combinations boxed off separately, we just need to add each of the four totals together for the Lucky 15 bet returns if all four win their matches.

• £16.75 (Singles) + £101.33 (Doubles) + £261.44 (Trebles) + £242.55 (Four-fold) = £622.07. Once you have deducted your £15 stake from the returns, your profit is £607.07.

Okay, that took a bit of time to work through didn’t it.  Save the sweat, blood and tears and let technology do its thing.  It takes seconds to enter the odds into the Lucky 15 Calculator and provide the figures for you.

Just to prove it to you, here’s a screenshot of the calculator to back up our manual calculations.  Enter 4 sets of odds and your stake and job’s a good un.

Another useful feature of the Lucky 15 Calculator is the ability to amend the outcomes of individual selections in case all of your choices don’t win.

Other Calculators

The examples of bets we have looked at only covers the tip of the iceberg.  Here’s some extremely useful calculators for many other types of football bets

Summary

It’s unlikely we will ever know every single detail that the bookies use to generate the odds that we see.  There’s far too many databases of information combined with super computers and maths nerds for us mortal humans to understand.

Having an understanding of how they do it is a good start though!

Make no mistake though, understanding the odds and how to calculate them empowers us to make important and informed betting decisions when it comes to placing the right football bets.

Combine your football knowledge with the excitement of football itself and the ability to strategically place bets and you’re heading in a very good direction.