Is The Paroli Betting System Right For You? Pros and Cons

The Paroli strategy is a well-known progressive betting system that is adopted by many as their go-to when it comes to playing certain casino games.

Almost all regular gamblers will have some sort of system when it comes to placing bets.

For some, this is a loose, casual system such as choosing their ‘lucky numbers’ in roulette or spinning slots on the same bet level and denomination every time. For others, though, choosing a formal pre-determined strategy such as Paroli can be a better way to gamble.

But does the Paroli strategy actually work? Here, we’ll take a look at the Paroli gambling system in more detail, what it is, how it works and the pros and cons of playing it.

What Is The Paroli Betting System?

The Paroli strategy is a positive progressive betting system that is centred around increasing and decreasing your betting stake depending on outcomes.

If you have ever heard of the Martingale Betting Strategy, then the Paroli Betting System is basically the opposite of that with a few tweaks.

The general principle of the Paroli strategy is that you double your bet size when you land a win, and drop down to your original stake when you lose. You also revert to your original stake when you land three consecutive wins in a row.

The point of a progressive betting system such as Paroli, is that by increasing and decreasing your bet sizes, you can limit your losses while also maximising any potential winning streaks.

Where Did The Paroli Strategy Originate?

It is generally believed that Blaise Pascal, the inventor of roulette, came up with the idea of the Paroli gambling system. The name ‘paroli’ is derived from the Latin term ‘par’ which translates to ‘one that is equal’. If you're a golf player or fan, you’ll be very familiar with par.

However, some believe that the Paroli strategy was used as far back as the 16th century and that Pascal simply made it famous.

Where Can The Paroli Gambling System Be Used?

The Paroli system should only be used on bets with even odds or as close to even as you can get. In order words, bets that offer close to a 50/50 chance of winning and payout 1:1.

Roulette bets such as red/black, odd/even and high/low are ideal, as are certain bets on craps (pass/do not pass), baccarat (player/banker) or even blackjack which has a low house edge.

Because of the house edge that is inherent in every casino game, it’s never going to be exactly 50/50, but you can get close to it. For example, in single zero roulette betting on red or black gives a 48.65% chance of winning due to the green 0 that it could also land on.

The Paroli betting system can also be used in sports betting as long as it is used correctly.

Bets should be placed on markets that have as close to a 50/50 chance of winning. Examples of this could be an under/over market on corners in a football match or a tennis match between two closely matched competitors.

The main issue when it comes to using the Paroli strategy on sports betting is that odds can change, unlike casino games, so it does make it more difficult to apply.

How To Use The Paroli System

So now we’ve looked at the theory, let’s take a look at the Paroli gambling system in action. For this example we’ll use the red or black option in roulette with an initial stake of £10.

To be clear, the Paroli System does not require you to bet on the same outcome every time. You do not have to pick one colour and stick with it, you can alternate between red or black on each bet.

Here are four different scenarios of winning and losing using the Paroli strategy to show the different outcomes that can occur.

Scenario 1 – You win three bets in a row

A winning streak of three means you can achieve 7x your initial stake using the Paroli system. If you’re following the strategy exactly you would then drop back down to the original £10 stake for your fourth bet.

The aim is to try to repeat the three-win streak as often as possible, doubling your stake when you win and dropping to the original stake after a loss or after your third win. This is a highly controlled approach that can limit losses but it can also limit profits too.

Scenario 2 – You win two bets and lose the third

In scenario two, if you win your first two bets but lose the third, you would only have lost your initial £10 stake. You would then place the fourth bet at the £10 stake and continue to do so until you get a win, at which point you will double your stake.

However, if you were to then hit a losing streak at this point of say four or five spins in a row, you could rapidly end up £50 or £60 down which would take a while to recoup.

Scenario 3 – You win one bet, lose the second, and win the third

In this scenario, with a win-lose-win string of results you would be back to even after the third bet. This is very typical of a roulette game, where it is more probable to go between wins and losses rather than to hit a long streak of either.

When using the Paroli system, it can be a case of ‘two steps forward and two steps back’ endlessly going between profits and losses every few spins which can feel a little tedious and stagnant.

Scenario 4 – You place ten bets with a mix of wins and losses

As you can see from this scenario, the Paroli gambling system doesn’t require you to chase losses. The biggest bet you will place is 4x your original stake, so you’ll never find yourself having to place large bets in order to chase losses.

This is an advantage that Paroli gambling system has over other strategies such as the Martingale system.

However, it can be very stop-start, and it relies entirely on winning streaks in order to make any profit. Unfortunately, you are more likely to hit a losing streak than a winning streak due to the overall house edge. So, although you may not have to place large stake bets, you could still lose money by having to place a long series of initial stake bets which can add up.

Paroli Strategy And The Gambling Fallacy

The gambling fallacy is something that all gamblers are aware of, but might not know it.

Think of a coin toss, which is 50/50, that has landed on tails four times in a row.

Although statistically, the fifth toss could land on either heads or tails in equal measure, our minds convince us that the next toss is more likely to result in heads because the previous four have landed on tails.

This is gambler's fallacy and refers to the belief that in a 50/50 situation, if one outcome has consistently landed, there is more chance of the alternative outcome landing next.

People tend to look for patterns when using the Paroli strategy. They believe that in roulette, if a series of consecutive red numbers have landed, then there is more chance of the next number being black.

This is something to be aware of when implementing the Paroli strategy as every spin is in complete isolation from the next so has a 50/50 chance of landing on red or black. The roulette wheel has no memory of its previous spin and one spin cannot logically affect the next one, so take this into consideration when placing your bets.

Pros And Cons Of The Paroli Betting System

There are both positives and negatives to using a strategy such as Paroli. The most important negative being that it provides no guarantees that you will actually make a profit when you use it. Here are a few others pros and cons of the Paroli system to look out for:

Pros

• Paroli is suitable for small stakes – your initial stake could be as little as £1 so it doesn’t require a large bankroll

• Easy to understand – simply double up after a win and drop to basic stake after a loss or the third consecutive win

• Limits losses - by not chasing losses, it means there’s a more controlled and measured system of managing betting stakes

• Conservative system – by reverting to the initial stake after three consecutive wins, it means that even in a winning streak, the profits are controlled leading to less emotional betting or concern about ‘getting carried away’

• Lower probability of going bust – because the system is so measured, it can generally keep you playing for a long time

Cons

• Making a decent profit from the Paroli system depends on winning streaks of three consecutive wins which can be hard to get

• There is an increased chance of going on a long losing streak than a long winning streak so you have to be prepared to cover a string of losses when needed

• If you lose a few in a row it can be a long hard process to recoup the money using such a conservative approach

• The increase/decrease strategy can be quite tedious to implement in practice, continually going back and forth between stakes and only betting on 50/50 options

• You can potentially lose out on lots of profit by limiting yourself to the three consecutive win rule. If you were to win five bets in a row, you would have missed out on some good profits by reverting to original stake instead of continuing to double

Tips On Using The Paroli Betting System

Start small – Work out your overall gambling spend and only use between 5 – 10% of that on your initial stake. For example, if you have a bankroll of £50, choose an initial stake of between £2.50 and £5. That means you should be able to cover a string of losses when they inevitably come.

Choose your bets wisely – the Paroli gambling system only works if you stick as close as you can to even money bets.

Set a time limit – one advantage of the Paroli strategy is that it can make your money last a while if you’re lucky enough to hit some wins. However, the longer you play, the more the house edge can impact your profits. Plus, it’s quite a boring system to play for extended periods!

Stick to the system – it can be tempting to alter the strategy as you play depending on your results. You may decide to continue doubling your stake after hitting three consecutive wins, for example. If this pays off, then happy days, but if it doesn’t you’ll lose the majority of profit you’ve earned. To follow the system authentically, then you’ll need discipline and consistency to implement it regardless of the outcomes.

Does The Paroli Betting System Work?

If you’re looking for a sure-fire way to guarantee profits then no, the Paroli system doesn’t work.

It’s quite telling that casinos are happy for players to use strategies such as Paroli and the Martingale system. If either of these strategies truly gave players the upper hand, then casinos certainly wouldn’t openly allow such systems to be used.

If you compare this to a strategy such as card counting in blackjack, which does give players an advantage, this is actively and fiercely prohibited in casinos if caught.

However, that doesn’t mean that there is no merit at all to the Paroli system. It does offer a measured approach to gambling with strict rules to follow, which can help some players from betting too emotionally or erratically.

The Paroli system specifically minimises your losses in an unlucky spell, and maximises your profits when you’re on a roll. But there is no protection against a losing streak and it can be a case of two steps forward and two steps back a lot of the time.

The only certain way to gain an edge over casinos is with strategies such as value betting or Matched Betting.

These strategies take into consideration the actual value and expected returns of each bet so that you can be sure you are taking value and not gambling with odds that are against your favour.

Other variations of profitable strategies include casino advantage play that uses a range of strategies and guidelines to get the most out of gambling and in some cases lock in guaranteed profits by using special offers and promotions.

Alternatives To The Paroli Betting System

Paroli is just one well-known betting strategy that is used by gamblers to regiment their bets. While the Paroli strategy is a positive progressive betting system, which means you increase your bet when you win, the majority of alternatives are negative progressive betting systems that require you to chase losses. Here’s a quick summary of some other commonly known betting strategies:

Martingale Strategy – basically the opposite of Paroli in that you double your stake after a loss (rather than a win) and revert to the original stake after a win. This requires a much bigger bankroll than the Paroli method as it requires losses to be chased. Depending on how big your stakes are, it can also lead to problems with table betting maximums. To find out more about the Martingale Strategy, read our guide here.

D’Alembert system - this is a very conservative strategy that requires you to increase your bet by one unit after a loss and decrease it by one unit after a win. It can be a very slow process aimed at grinding out small wins and limiting losses. It is low risk, but it does require patience and concentration.

Fibonacci system - you increase bets according to the Fibonacci sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8,13 etc.) after a loss and move two steps back in the sequence after a win. Your betting units should match the number in the sequence so it’s often used by players who place smaller bets of $1 and $2. It can get extremely complicated to implement in real time though.

Labouchere system - this adds an extra level of complication to betting systems in that it involves setting a sequence of numbers that represent betting units. You then bet the sum of the first and last numbers in the sequence. After a win, you cross out those numbers and move onto the next first and last numbers; after a loss, you add the value of the lost bet to the end of the sequence and start again. This is highly detailed and requires lots of practice.

Keep Gambling Fun

Whether you decide to implement a strategy or not when gambling, the important thing to remember is to always keep it fun.

Setting your own time limits or a profit/loss limit can help to keep your betting levels under control. If you feel you need some support, there are lots of resources available. You can contact GAMstop for further professional advice and information.