How To Find Value Bets

Quick answer:  You find value bets by comparing a bookmaker's odds with your own estimate of an outcome's true probability. If the bookmaker offers higher odds than the true probability suggests, the bet has positive expected value (+EV). Many bettors estimate probabilities manually using statistics and form, while others use specialist value betting software to identify opportunities more quickly. 

Value Betting is one of the best techniques out there for profiting through sports betting, and for a lot of matched bettors it’s a natural next step. It involves locating bets with higher odds than the real likelihood of a win would imply - which, over a large enough number of bets, can result in very reliable profits.

Finding those bets is both the most important, and the hardest, part of Value Betting. In order to establish that the odds you’re seeing are high enough to offer positive expected value, you need to know what the true likelihood of a win really is - something that is far from easy to work out.

The easiest way of tracking down value bets is of course with Outplayed’s fantastic Value Betting tools, which identify value bets on your behalf - but can you make it on your own?

In this article, we’ll explain how Value Betting works, the methods people use to manually locate Value Betting opportunities, and exactly what each of Outplayed’s Value Betting tools do, so you have all the information you need to decide how to begin your own Value Betting journey.

What Are Value Bets?

Value Betting involves consistently placing bets at higher odds than the true likelihood of a selection winning would imply.

For example, a horse might have a 25% chance of actually winning its next race. This can be converted to odds of 4 or 3/1 in fractional odds (1 / 0.25 = 4), and you might expect to see bookies offering odds of 3 or 3.5, allowing for their profit margin.

If, however, you found a bookie offering odds of 4.5 or 5 on that horse, you would have found a Value Betting opportunity. We refer to these bets as having positive expected value (often shortened to +EV).

Naturally, your bet isn’t guaranteed to win - we’ve just established it has a 25% chance of winning - but if you consistently bet at higher odds than the true probability would imply, you are very likely to make profits in the long run.

💬 Expert Insight

"One of the biggest mistakes new value bettors make is judging the quality of a bet by whether it wins. A losing bet can still be an excellent decision if the odds represented genuine value, while a winning bet at poor odds may be a losing strategy over hundreds of bets."

- Ben Adams, Outplayed betting expert

Value Betting also has the advantage of being possible across all sports - if there are betting markets on a sport, there’s Value Betting potential.{{ 

📊 What the Data Says

"The average favourite wins just 34.6% of horse races in Britain, illustrating why accurately assessing true probabilities is far more complex than simply backing the market leader—and why finding mis-priced odds requires careful analysis."

- British Horseracing Authority

It also isn’t reliant on promotions from bookies, as Matched Betting is, meaning that there’s no theoretical limit to the number of bets you can place. This is why the profits from Value Betting have the potential to be so significant.

How To Find Value Betting Opportunities

The key to successful manual Value Betting is research. You’ll need to gain extensive knowledge and experience of any sport you intend to value bet on, and to gather as much information as possible.

Successful value bettors will typically collate statistics on everything relating to their sport, including the following:

• Individual teams
• individual players
• individual horses
• Venues
• Weather
• Past Performance
• Previous match-ups
• Current form

This process is very similar to that employed by bookmakers themselves to determine their odds.

Value bettors use the information they collect to assess each competitor’s true chances of winning in an event. They will also evaluate their predictions once an event has taken place, to see how successful their technique has been, and whether it could be refined.

💬 Expert Insight

"Keeping detailed records of your estimated probabilities alongside the closing bookmaker odds can reveal whether your assessments consistently beat the market. That feedback loop is often far more valuable than simply tracking profit, because it highlights whether your process is genuinely improving."

- Taylor Ludlow, Outplayed value betting expert

The more information and experience they gain, the better their chances of accurately assessing the likely outcomes of any event.

📊 What the Data Says

"A Cambridge University Press study assessed potential pricing inefficiencies in UK fixed-odds horse racing using two datasets covering 549 races and 700 races, examining whether differences between average and outlier odds could identify potentially profitable betting opportunities."

- Cambridge University Press

Good value bets can often be found where specific factors might affect a particular competitor’s chances of winning, potentially outweighing other factors that would usually be more significant.

For example, certain tennis players are known for playing best on certain surfaces, such as Rafael Nadal, who famously performed best on clay, winning the French Open 14 times. A value bettor might, therefore, consider a clay specialist more likely to win a French Open match even against a somewhat better ranked player.

Similarly, there’s a home advantage across the vast majority of sports, both due to the lack of travel and the boost a home crowd can offer. This is another factor that could potentially go into a value bettor’s decision-making process.

There are plenty of tipsters out there who will offer advice as to the best bets out there - but their guidance should always be taken with a grain of salt. Tipsters usually earn commission from bookies, meaning that you simply cannot trust a tip to be impartial.

Good Value Betting involves performing your own research and trusting your own judgement - and that means putting in a lot of time and effort if you’re hoping for success.

A typical process for finding value bets would include:

• Estimate probability
• Convert probability into odds
• Compare bookmaker odds
• Calculate expected value
• Place only +EV bets
• Track results

Well, unless you take advantage of Outplayed’s handy Value Betting tools, that is.

Of course, people will always use different methods to find value bets.  Here's a summary of potential methods and what's involved:

Finding Value Bets At Outplayed

In contrast to the work involved in manually locating value bets, Value Betting with Outplayed is a breeze.

Not only do we offer a range of Value Betting tools, allowing you to locate and place your bets in seconds, we have full step-by-step guides for each one, and profit trackers to help you keep up with your progress.

With an Outplayed Pro or Pro Plus membership, you gain access to the following powerful Value Betting tools:

• Extra Place Master: Use this tool’s No Lay mode to identify the best value each-way bets on horse racing every single day.
• Lucky Finder: This software automatically builds you Lucky 15 bets with positive EV, offering you the opportunity to make incredible profits in the long run.
• Golf Master: Available with the Pro Plus membership package, this tool identifies high value each-way golf bets, with the potential to make hundreds of pounds a month all year round.
• Steam Chaser: Available with the Pro Plus membership package, this is an incredibly powerful tool designed to take advantage of delays in bookie odds software, which give you the opportunity to bet on overvalued selections.

While it’s certainly possible to find value bets manually, there’s no denying that it’ll involve a lot of time spent on research, and if you’re relatively new to Value Betting you’ll probably find it difficult to trust that your assessments are accurate.

But Outplayed’s Value Betting tools eliminate the grunt work of Value Betting, making it possible to make hundreds or even thousands of pounds a month in profit without spending hours compiling statistics.

It’s important to be aware that Value Betting does involve risk. If you aren’t already an experienced recreational sports bettor, we’d strongly advise that you start off with Matched Betting, especially if you don’t have a good bankroll to begin with.

However, if you do plan to embark on Value Betting, there’s no better way to do it than with an Outplayed Pro or Elite membership on your side.

Ready To Find Value Bets In Seconds?

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Frequently Asked Questions About Finding Value Bets

How do you identify a value bet?

A value bet exists when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the true probability of an outcome occurring. To find these opportunities, you need to compare your estimated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability or use specialist value betting software that does this automatically.

Can you find value bets without software?

Yes, but it takes significant time, knowledge and discipline. Successful manual value bettors analyse statistics, form, injuries, market movements and other factors before estimating the true probability of an event, although many bettors eventually use software to speed up the process.

What sports are best for finding value bets?

Value bets can be found in almost any sport with active betting markets. Horse racing, football, golf, tennis, basketball and American sports are all popular because they offer large numbers of events and frequent pricing differences between bookmakers.

How often do value bets actually win?

Not every value bet wins, and many will lose. The goal is to place enough positive expected value (+EV) bets over time so that your long-term returns outweigh the inevitable short-term losses.

Is value betting profitable in the long run?

It can be profitable if your probability assessments are consistently more accurate than the bookmaker's prices. Long-term success depends on placing a large number of genuine value bets, managing your bankroll responsibly and maintaining discipline through losing streaks.

Do bookmakers limit accounts for value betting?

Some bookmakers may restrict or limit customers who consistently place profitable bets, including value bets. Many experienced bettors spread their betting across multiple bookmakers and avoid behaviours that unnecessarily attract attention to help prolong account longevity.

What's the fastest way to find value bets?

The quickest method is using dedicated value betting software that scans bookmakers' odds and highlights positive EV opportunities automatically. This removes much of the manual research and allows you to focus on selecting and placing qualifying bets.

Is value betting suitable for beginners?

Value betting is generally better suited to bettors who understand probability, bankroll management and variance. If you're completely new to sports betting, many people choose to gain experience with lower-risk strategies before moving on to value betting.

How do professionals find value bets?

Professional value bettors combine statistical analysis, market knowledge and disciplined bankroll management to identify bets where the bookmaker's odds are higher than the true probability of an outcome. Many also use specialist value betting software to scan thousands of markets in real time, allowing them to find positive expected value (+EV) opportunities much faster than manual research alone.

How do you calculate expected value?

To calculate expected value (EV), compare your estimated probability of an outcome with the bookmaker's implied probability. If your estimated probability is higher than the implied probability, the bet has positive expected value (+EV). For example, if you believe a team has a 50% chance of winning (fair odds of 2.00) but a bookmaker offers odds of 2.20, the bet represents positive value because the available odds are greater than your estimated fair price.

Can you find value bets using odds comparison sites?

Yes, odds comparison sites such as Oddschecker can help you spot bookmakers offering the highest odds on a particular selection, which is an important part of finding value bets. However, the highest odds alone do not guarantee value. You still need to determine whether those odds are higher than the true probability of the outcome or use specialist value betting software that estimates expected value automatically.

Is value betting legal in the UK?

Yes, as with matched betting, value betting is completely legal in the UK. It involves placing bets with licensed bookmakers when you believe the available odds offer positive expected value. However, while the practice is legal, bookmakers may choose to restrict or limit accounts that consistently demonstrate profitable betting patterns, in line with their terms and conditions.