Matched Betting the 2up Early-payout Offer: 2021/2022 Football Season Bet & Profit Log - Week 1
13 Aug 2021
Updated: 19 Nov 2023
This will (hopefully) be a weekly article tracking the journey (and profits) of one of the Profit Accumulator team members who regularly does the 2up early-payout offer.
We say hopefully weekly as firstly they wanted to mention they know they could get gubbed at any time (no one is immune to this no matter how careful they are to avoid it) and secondly, they might be on holiday or having a busy week every now and again and won’t have the chance to update their tracking on time but will endeavour to do so!
These articles are not designed to be a guide on how to do the 2up early-payout offer and are only meant to provide an insight into one of our team members journeys, how they prefer to do the offer and how much it’s possible to make when doing the offer.
The 2up offer is widely felt to be an advanced Matched Betting reload offer and is not usually recommended for complete beginners to Matched Betting. Although widely considered in our community to be one of the most profitable reload offers available, it is still a potential profit offer meaning it tends to be profitable over the long-term only when a strict positive expected value strategy is followed.
For guides, tips and absolutely essential reading on how to approach and profit from the 2up early-payout offer please refer to the following:
Bet365 Early-payout Offer Video Guide
Strategy outline - Want more profits from Matched Betting? 2ups are key!
Strategy outline - Multiple cash-out strategy walk-through
Tips and advice from the members and team - Bet365 2up forum thread
A bit of background
This Profit Accumulator team member has been Matched Betting for a few years but decided during the 2020/2021 football season to really start focusing more on the 2up early-payout offer - having previously only dabbled in it here and there. Unsurprisingly it turned into an excellent choice and really paid off.
The team member took some time to test which strategy worked best for them and settled on what is commonly referred to in our Matched Betting community as ‘The Full Turn Around (FTA)’ strategy.
Why this strategy?
1. They have a larger Matched Betting Bankroll of well over £8,000 currently available and have developed a mindset to deal with high variance or pro-longed profit downswings. (The worst downswing they experienced last season was around 115 bets without an FTA - but strict control of qualifying losses meant even this downswing had little impact on their final profits from the season).
2. They couldn’t always find the opportunity to keep an eye on the games, especially on weekends, so found they were not able to easily stick to any of the cash-out (or lock-in profit) strategies that many Profit Accumulator members prefer to use (due to the lower variance involved). They note their choice meant that in a couple of instances last year they missed some in-play FTA cash-out opportunities and consequently missed out on some big profits when the games subsequently didn’t finish as FTAs. (Although tough to swallow they didn’t care much as the profits they were still making were still so substantial).
The 2021/2022 Football Season - Week 1
Friday 6th August to Thursday 12th August 2021
This week was a crazy week for 2ups as there were five, yes FIVE, available full turn arounds (FTAs) plus one in-play only FTA as well. Quite an incredible start to the season.The FTAs
Montpellier (vs Marseille, France Ligue 1, Sunday 8th August)
Metz (vs Lille, France Ligue 1, Sunday 8th August)
Salford (vs Derby, EFL Cup, Tuesday 10th August)
Lincoln (vs Shrewsbury, EFL Cup, Tuesday 10th August)
Tranmere (vs Oldham, EFL Cup, Tuesday 10th August)
The in-play only FTAs
Harrogate (vs Rochdale, English League 2, Saturday 7th August)
This game was a prime example of when an FTA happens in-play midway or earlier in a game (here it was at 49 minutes) - why you should immediately do at least a 50% cash-out to lock-in profit. (That’s as long as you see the FTA in-play of course - sometimes it’s not possible to and you have to be able to accept that if using the FTA approach).
Many of our members and team would even probably argue to do a 75%-100% cash-out in such instances and not take the risk of missing the rest of the profits.
The 91-minute goal in this game by Burrell would have crushed any profits for any member who was waiting for the end of game FTA in this instance.
All these FTAs this week meant there was a lot of chat and a substantial number of profit ‘booms!’ going on in the main 2up thread in the forum. A few members reported to have hit 2 and even 3 of the FTAs that we saw and made profits of over £1000. One member reported making over £3000 - but we believe they have a significant bankroll and use very large stakes (£400-£500).
How did our Profit Accumulator team member get on?
PA Team Members 2up Bet & Profit Log
Total profit this week: £207.25 (I'm very happy with that!)
Bets placed this week: 19
Total qualifying losses (before any profits): -£40.75 (average QL = -£2.14)
Profit graph this week:
Average back stake amount: £117
Average back odds: 4.06 (minimum 2.0, maximum 9.0)
Average % odds match between bookie and exchange: 97.65% (minimum was around 94% due to a lay odds drift, max was 100% match)
Number of end-game FTAs hit: 1 (missed all the others! But at least hit 1!)
Number of in-play FTAs hit: 0 (was on the wrong team for this game! It happens!)
Number of in-play FTAs missed due to not seeing them: 0
An insight from the PA Team Member on their 2up strategy
"Personally I always only go for teams with odds over 2.0. I’m aware this is a popular strategy in the Profit Accumulator community but also there are members who will take lower odds teams but compensate with larger stakes and 98%+ matches between the odds.
As a side note - really hope this crazy week with 5 FTAs is a sign of lots more to come! The Premier League is about to start alongside other major European Leagues and I can’t wait!"
Go to next article in this series: Week 2 'Welcome to a downswing'
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