Quick answer: sharbing, also known as shop arbitrage, is a form of arbitrage that allows you to profit from differences in odds between betting shops and online betting exchanges.

While similar to <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-arbing-or-arbitrage">online arbitrage betting</a> (also called "arbing"), sharbing is done exclusively in physical betting shops, which sometimes update their odds more slowly than online platforms.

This delay in updating odds gives sharbers the opportunity to lock in a profit regardless of the bet outcome.

In this article, you’ll learn how sharbing works and how to do it successfully, and covers key tips, strategies, and risks to be aware of.

Sharbing is the practice of finding suitable bets and placing them at a physical bookmaker shop (like Ladbrokes, William Hill, or Coral) and then laying off the same bet on a <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-a-betting-exchange">betting exchange</a> such as Matchbook at lower odds to lock in a profit.

By placing a back bet at the bookmaker and laying the same bet at the exchange, you’re able to lock in a profit regardless of the outcome.

The key to sharbing is finding profitable arbitrage opportunities before the bookmaker updates their odds. Physical betting shops tend to update their odds more slowly than online bookmakers, making them ideal targets for this strategy.

You can follow this 5-step process to place a shop arb:

1. Identify Betting Shops: To begin with you’ll need to locate nearby betting shops. Major high street chains like Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, and Betfred are the most popular options for sharbers. These shops tend to have slower odds updates compared to online platforms, making them prime targets​.

2. Track Odds: You’ll need to compare the odds offered in the shop with those available on betting exchanges. Many sharbers use odds comparison tools or manually check the odds on betting exchanges using their phone while in a betting shop​.

3. Place Your Back Bet: Once you've found a discrepancy where the bookmaker's odds are higher than the exchange's lay odds, you can place your back bet in the shop. Be sure to double-check the odds with the shop's betting slip before finalising your bet as there is a chance the bookmaker might have already cut the odds​.

4. Lay Your Bet on the Exchange: After placing your back bet, immediately lay the same selection on a betting exchange such as Matchbook. Use a Matched Betting calculator to determine the optimal stake for your <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-lay-betting">lay bet</a>, ensuring that you lock in a profit regardless of the outcome​. If the lay odds have changed in the time since placing your back bet, you’ll need to adjust the calculator to work out your required new lay stake to either take a different profit amount or small loss if the lay odds are higher than the back odds you placed.

5. Collect Your Winnings: If your bet wins at the bookmaker, you collect your winnings there. If your lay bet wins on the exchange, the profit will already be in your betting exchange account online. Either way, you’ve made yourself a profit by covering all outcomes of the event.

A genuine shop arb is only as good as the settlement terms behind it. Two bets can appear to cover the same outcome while using different rules for abandoned matches, non-runners or void selections. Always compare the bookmaker’s rules with the exchange market before treating an apparent price gap as a guaranteed profit.

If you haven’t done so before, placing a bet in a bookmaker shop can seem a bit intimidating, but it's actually pretty straightforward once you get the hang of it.

Once you've identified a bet you wish to place you can use a plain betting slip, which is basically a blank piece of paper which you can write your bet on with the available odds. Then, take it to the counter where a member of staff will check for you then take the money for the bet to be placed.

Alternatively, you can use a betting shop coupon which has a list of bets with available odds which you can use to tick your selected bet and write your stake amount before taking to the counter to place your bet.

You’ll be given a receipt for your bet and it’s important to keep this safe as you’ll use this to claim your winnings if your bet wins. A good tip is to take a picture of your slip just in case you lose it.

If your bet wins, you can return to the cashier with your bet receipt. They’ll check this and you’ll be paid your winnings in cash. If you don't win, your betting slip becomes invalid so you can get rid of it.

If you’re ever in doubt then the shop staff can always help guide you as they are used to helping our people who are new to their betting shop.

A Betting Shop Bet Example:

Let’s say you want to bet on Manchester United to beat Liverpool in an upcoming match:

You find the match on a football betting coupon (Manchester United at 2/1 (3.0) to win) and want to place a £5 bet on this match.

You fill out a betting slip by writing: "Manchester United to win vs Liverpool - 2/1” and then write £5.

You hand the slip and £5 to the cashier, who’ll then give you a receipt.

If Manchester United win, you’ll return to the shop, hand in your receipt, and collect your returns of £15 (your £5 bet × 2/1 odds = £10 in profit, plus you get your original £5 stake back).

Sharbing appeals to people mainly due to the anonymity that comes with it, which you don’t get with online betting.

Online betting involves sharing your personal details and can include KYC checks. This means when bookies detect you as a profitable bettor your account can easily be <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/top-tips-to-avoid-being-gubbed">flagged or restricted</a>, which means you won’t be able to continue taking profitable opportunities.

Betting shops, on the other hand, don’t store your betting history. This makes it easier to keep under the radar​ for longer.

You’ll also typically be able to use bigger betting stakes as, in general, betting shops are more willing to accept larger stakes compared to online accounts, especially if you blend in as a regular recreational punter that typically places bets in store. This means you can potentially make more money per bet than you could online​ when arbitrage betting.

While sharbing can be profitable, it’s not without its risks and does take practice to master. Here are some of the key challenges you’ll need to be aware of:

One of the most frustrating parts of sharbing is when you’ve taken time to identify a good arbitrage opportunity, but by the time you get to the shop counter, you're told the odds have been cut, meaning the arbitrage opportunity no longer exists. If this happens, you’ll need to refuse the bet and walk away until you find another suitable bet.

The biggest operational mistake with shop arbing is treating a displayed price as a confirmed price. Retail odds can change between spotting an opportunity, filling out the slip and having the bet accepted. The only number that matters for your calculation is the price actually printed on the accepted receipt.

Sharbing is admittedly a lot less convenient than <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-arbing-or-arbitrage">online arbing</a> or betting. It requires much more effort to physically go to betting stores and visit multiple shops. This can be time-consuming and eats into your profits if you’re spending money on travel or spending too much time commuting between shops​. You’ll need to factor in these costs when calculating your profits. Individual circumstances will vary too - if you live in the centre of a city with lots of different bookies, then sharbing will be much more valuable to you compared to someone who lives in a more rural area, miles away from a betting shop.

Physical betting remains a substantial part of Britain’s gambling infrastructure. The Gambling Commission recorded 5,669 betting shops across Great Britain between October and December 2025, although the number of shops has continued to decline, making local availability an important consideration for anyone considering sharbing.

- <a href="https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/publication/industry-statistics-quarterly-report-financial-year-april-2025-to-march-2026-quarter-3-official-statistics">Gambling Commission</a>

Although it’s less common than with online betting, betting shops can still ban you if they suspect you of sharbing. If you're banned from one shop, they may communicate this with other nearby shops which can limit your options​.

Some betting shop staff may become suspicious if you consistently place large bets on obscure markets so it’s important to blend in with other punters and avoid drawing attention to your betting habits​. You could try mixing it up with some regular <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-mug-betting">mug bets</a> or <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-an-accumulator-bet">accumulator bets</a>.

Despite the challenges, sharbing can be a profitable strategy for you and there are a few key tips you can follow to maximise your profits while minimising the risks explained above:

One of the biggest advantages of sharbing as discussed earlier is the anonymity that betting shops provide. Always place your bets using cash to avoid leaving a paper trail. Also, avoid using loyalty cards unless they’re required for a specific promotion​ as these cards require your personal details to set up, which allows your betting activity to be tracked, making it easier for shops to flag you as a sharber.

Cash remains particularly prominent in land-based betting: 71% of respondents to Gambling Commission research said they typically used cash when placing bets on sports games or races. That helps explain why cash remains a practical feature of the retail betting environment.

- <a href="https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/publication/consumer-views-on-cashless-payments-in-land-based-gambling">Gambling Commission</a>

Betting large amounts right away is a surefire way to raise suspicion among betting shop staff. Start with small bets of under £100 to begin with and gradually increase your stakes as you become more comfortable with the process. In addition to this, avoid using strange bet amounts like £47.53, as that can make it seem as if you’re <a href="https://outplayed.com/dutching-calculator-guide">dutching</a> and will make you stand out. Stick to rounded stake amounts like £25, £50, £75 etc.

Try to avoid visiting the same shop day after day. If possible, rotate between multiple shops to avoid raising suspicion to the staff​. It's also a good idea to vary the time of day you visit, as this can help make your betting patterns less predictable.

To avoid wasting time travelling between shops, use an <a href="https://outplayed.com/products/oddsmatcher">odds comparison tool</a> to check odds before you head to the next bookie. This ensures that the arbitrage opportunity exists before you invest the time and effort to get to the shop. Some bookies might have different shop prices to their online price so you'll need to check that too.

The Outplayed Oddsmatcher, available with all <a href="https://outplayed.com/pricing">Outplayed membership tiers</a>, helps you to locate suitable odds for arbing opportunities. You can also use the Price Boost Tracker (available with Diamond membership and higher) to locate potentially profitable price boosts, including some exclusive to shops, to take your sharbing profits to the next level.

5. Don’t Lay Until You’ve Placed Your Bet

Always make sure that your back bet has been successfully placed at the bookmaker before laying it off on the exchange. This ensures that the odds haven’t changed at the shop which can help you avoid a potential loss. When at the counter you may also find out you’re only allowed a limited stake on the bet so laying beforehand can lead to unnecessary losses if you need to trade out.

Be as friendly, polite, and confident as possible. Sometimes bookmaker staff are required to get authorisation from a manager for certain bets; if it’s at their discretion and they know you as a friendly and polite customer, they’re more likely to help you get your bets on faster, meaning much less inconvenience.

The profitability of sharbing depends hugely on how many shops you can visit, your bankroll, how quickly you can spot arbitrage opportunities and how much you’re willing to stake.

Estimating an exact figure is difficult but experienced sharbers report making hundreds of pounds per month, especially when they’re able to use larger stakes when betting on high-profile events like horse races or major football matches.

With that said, sharbing requires patience and attention to detail. You won’t be locking in big profits every time, but the small, consistent profits will add up over time.

Sharbing remains a profitable betting strategy in 2026, especially if you’re willing to put in the time, effort and patience to visit multiple betting shops when you spot arbitrage opportunities.

While it’s more labour intensive than online arbing, the anonymity and reduced risk of account restrictions make it an attractive option for many punters who live near multiple betting shops.

By following the tips and strategies we’ve discussed in this article, you can increase your chances of success and keep sharbing for the long term.

1. What's the advantage of sharbing over regular arbitrage betting?

Sharbing allows for greater anonymity, as your betting activity isn't linked to your personal details. It therefore makes it easier to profit from arbitrage betting, without the risk of bookie restrictions.

2. Can sharbing get my account limited?

No; your in-shop betting isn't linked to any bookie accounts you hold, so your sharbing shouldn't have any impact on your online account.

What Is Sharbing? Full Guide 2026

Quick answer: &nbsp;Horse racing <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-value-betting">Value Betting</a> &nbsp;is a long-term betting strategy that focuses on finding horses priced at higher odds than their true chance of winning. Rather than trying to predict every winner, successful value bettors aim to repeatedly place positive expected value (+EV) bets where the bookmaker has underestimated a horse's probability. Although individual bets regularly lose, consistently identifying value opportunities can produce profitable results over hundreds or thousands of bets.

Horse Racing&nbsp;Value Betting Background

<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/horse-racing-history">Horse racing</a> is one of the world’s oldest sports, going back thousands of years - and <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/how-to-bet-on-horses">betting on horse racing</a> has been going on, in one form or another, for almost as long.

Nowadays, there are horse races year round in the UK, with some festivals in particular, such as <a href="https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham-festival/">Cheltenham</a>, attracting huge attention, both from bookies and the public.

"The UK Gambling Commission's latest Gambling Survey found that betting participation rose to 12.4% during a period covering major sporting events, while betting on horses or dogs increased from 3.9% to 6.6%. This highlights how major horse racing festivals drive significant betting activity, making efficient pricing even more important for value bettors."&nbsp;

- <a href="https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/blog/post/gambling-survey-for-great-britain-year-2-2024-wave-2-results-published?utm_source=chatgpt.com">UK Gambling Commission</a>

Naturally, the chief object of anyone placing bets on horse racing is to turn a profit, but that’s not nearly as simple as it sounds. <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/how-are-betting-odds-determined">Bookies set their odds</a> in such a way as to always make a profitable margin on the bets they take - meaning that punters will always end up losing money overall.

However, there is a statistically sound way to make money from horse racing, which is known as Value Betting. This technique, employed by both professional sports bettors and experienced recreational bettors, involves finding and placing bets at higher odds than the likelihood of a win would imply - meaning that, in the long run, you can expect to end up in profit.

In this article, we’ll explain what Value Betting is, how it works in horse racing, and the strategies and tools you can use to make a profit through Value Betting on horse racing yourself.

We know that Value Betting involves betting at higher odds than the real likelihood of a win would imply - but how exactly does that work?

Well, a bet with higher odds than the true probability of a win would imply results in positive expected value. While that bet isn’t guaranteed to win, you would expect to end up with a profit if you placed a large number of similar bets long term.

This is a very different technique from <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting">Matched Betting</a>, where you know in advance what your profit will be from each bet, meaning that you aren’t facing any real risk in your betting activity, except that of making an error.

Value Betting does involve risk. Although you would expect to end up in profit in the long term, in the short term you will see upswings and downswings, which you need to be able to weather.

We therefore don’t recommend Value Betting as a strategy unless you’re an experienced matched bettor or sports bettor and you have a good starting bankroll, of around £1000 or more.

When it comes to Value Betting on horse racing specifically, there are a number of strategies you can use to extract profit from the bookies. The most basic involves simply identifying bets whose true probability is higher than the odds would imply, perhaps because of conditions the bookie hasn’t accounted for, or a last minute change to the competitors in a race.

The main problem with this method, other than the difficulty of identifying those bets in the first place, is that bookies tend to be aware of when their odds have been higher than they should be, and consistently betting at those inflated odds is a surefire way to attract a bookie’s attention, risking a swift <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/top-tips-to-avoid-being-gubbed">gubbing</a>.

But there are other, subtler horse racing Value Betting methods out there, which we’ll delve into later on.

How To Identify Horse Racing&nbsp;Value Bets

Value Betting hinges on the concept of ‘<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-implied-probability">implied probability</a>’, which refers to the fact that any set of odds can be used to indicate the probability of an outcome occurring. For example, odds of 2 (1/1 or evens in fractional odds) indicate a 50% chance of that outcome occurring, whereas odds of 4 (3/1 in fractional odds) indicate a 25% chance of that outcome occurring.

Of course, the fact that a bet is listed at odds of 4 with a bookie doesn’t mean that its true chance of winning is actually 25%, because probability isn’t the only factor used by bookies to determine their odds.

Normally, a bookie’s odds will be lower than the true probability of a win, allowing for their <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/how-betting-sites-make-money">profit margin</a>. Sometimes, though, a bookie might not have adjusted their odds to account for changes to the true probability of an outcome, or they might not be aware of a factor affecting it.

"One of the biggest mistakes bettors make is assuming every price bigger than their own estimate represents value. The edge comes from having a probability model that consistently outperforms the market, not from disagreeing with the bookmaker for the sake of it. Small but repeatable pricing advantages are far more valuable than chasing spectacular-looking odds."

- Stephanie Sorrel, Outplayed value betting expert

For example, you might have good reason to believe that a horse’s true chance of winning a race&nbsp;is 20%, which equates to odds of 5 (4/1 in fractional odds), sometimes known as 'true odds'. If, therefore, you managed to find a bookie offering odds of 6, you would have a bet that holds positive expected value.

Of course, you’d still expect your bet to lose 4 times out of 5, so you wouldn’t expect to make a profit from any individual bet. However, in the long run, betting at those odds and with this true probability of a win would statistically result in a profit.

If you placed 100 such bets with stakes of £10 each, you’d expect 20 of them to win and 80 to lose. On your losing bets, you’d therefore lose £800, but your winning bets would win you £1000 - meaning you’d have made an overall profit of £200.

On this basis, each individual bet’s expected value would be £2 (even though it wouldn’t be possible actually to make £2 in profit from any single bet at these odds).

This illustrates exactly why Value Betting works in the long term - but it does rely on your placing a large volume of bets over time. You’ll see ups and downs, but the more bets you place, the more closely your total profit will reflect the expected value of all the bets you’ve placed.

Successful Value Betting in horse racing requires extensive research. You need to know everything there is to know about the horses, courses, trainers and jockeys&nbsp;involved in any given race.

This probably means compiling your own statistical database and using this information to calculate the ‘true’ probability of a win for all competitors in a race, and then converting those probabilities into the true odds for each horse.

Having done so - and assuming your results are accurate - you can then compare these true odds to those available at the bookies.

"British racecourses attracted 4,799,730 spectators during 2024, according to the British Horseracing Authority. Large, competitive racing markets generate vast amounts of betting activity, making accurate pricing and probability assessment increasingly important for bettors searching for value."

- <a href="https://www.britishhorseracing.com/racing-report-full-year-2024/">British Horse Racing Authority</a>

You’ll end up with something along the lines of the following:

As we can see, for most of the runners the odds available from the bookie are lower than the true odds, which is what we’d expect, as the bookies make their money by adding a margin onto their odds .

However, Ruler Legend is available at significantly higher odds than we’ve calculated as the true odds, making for a Value Betting opportunity.

As the true odds are high, we certainly won’t be expecting to win this particular bet - but it still makes a valuable part of a long term Value Betting strategy. 3% of the time we would expect it to win, with those winnings being high enough to make up for the 97% of the time when it loses.

We can calculate the expected value of this bet by multiplying each possible outcome of the event by its probability of occurring, then adding up all those results.

For a £10 stake at odds of 41, you would win £400 on a successful bet, and lose your £10 stake if it lost. The EV can therefore be calculated as follows:

EV = (0.03 x £400) + (0.97 x -£10) = £12 - £9.70 = £2.30

Different Horse Racing&nbsp;Value Betting Strategies

Although the basic principles of Value Betting are relatively straightforward, there are more complex strategies you can employ, beyond simply looking for singles bets at inflated odds.

These have the benefits of making your Value Betting activity less obvious to a bookie, which will help your accounts stay healthier for longer.

"The strongest long-term value betting strategies rarely rely on a single market or bet type. Spreading your activity across win, each-way and other racing markets not only creates more opportunities, but also produces betting patterns that more closely resemble those of recreational punters, helping maintain account longevity."

- Taylor Ludlow, Outplayed betting&nbsp;expert

Bookies will offer a certain number of paid places on horse racing bets, depending on the number of runners involved. When you place an each way bet, you’re placing two separate bets in one, both on a horse to win and to hit one of the paid places.

This type of bet can be particularly profitable for Value Betting, because bookies set the odds for places at a certain fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5), rather than separately assessing a horse’s chances of hitting a paid place.

It’s therefore often possible to make <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/how-does-an-each-way-bet-work">each way bets</a> that hold fantastic expected value in the place part of the bet, without inflated win odds that attract the bookie’s attention.

While it’s certainly possible, through extensive research and statistical analysis, to locate each way value bets for yourself, Outplayed’s powerful <a href="https://outplayed.com/products/extra-place-master">Extra Place Master</a> is a total game-changer.

Using our proprietary algorithms, it analyses all runners to produce reliable true odds for each race and compares these to the odds available at the bookies. Whenever a bet holds positive expected value, it will appear on your results, making it a matter of seconds to click through to the bookie and place your bet.

The Extra Place Master is responsible for tens of thousands of profits in horse racing Value Betting for <a href="https://outplayed.com/pro">Outplayed Pro</a> members.

Here's a real example of our members results from using the Extra Place Master.

Accumulators (Lucky15s)

Another particularly valuable Value Betting horse racing strategy is to take advantage of each way <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/types-of-accumulator-bets">accumulator bets</a>, such as <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-a-lucky-15-bet">Lucky 15s</a>. This is a bet made up of 15 individual bets across 4 selections, as follows:

When placed each way, you get a total of 30 individual bets all rolled into one.

Because this type of accumulator bet often involves additional bonuses from the bookies, this strategy takes the benefits of simple each way bets and multiplies them, resulting in betslips that hold incredibly high value.

Again, it is possible to do all the research required to identify accumulator horse racing bets with value manually, but Outplayed’s tools make this process a matter of seconds rather than hours.

The <a href="https://outplayed.com/products/lucky-finder">Lucky Finder</a>, available with an Outplayed Pro subscription, puts together each way Lucky 15 bets with positive expected value on your behalf - all you have to do is add the selections to your betslip with the bookie and then place your bet.

Once again, this tool is responsible for tens of thousands of pounds of profit for Outplayed members. Although there will be ups and downs in your profit from day to day, and even month to month, over time it’s highly likely that your total profit will match your total EV pretty closely, as you can see in our member profit graph below.

Here's a real example of our members results from using the Lucky Finder.

Horse Racing Value Betting Vs Other Value Bets

Horse racing Value Betting is one of the most popular types of Value Betting because, with the help of Outplayed’s tools, it’s particularly easy to place enough bets to start seeing profits relatively quickly.

But there are other forms of Value Betting out there, on other sports such as golf and football, and using other strategies.

If you’re a matched bettor considering taking up Value Betting, horse racing Value Betting is one of the best places to start, especially if you’re an Outplayed Pro member.

The process of placing and tracking your bets is incredibly straightforward, both with the Extra Place Master and the Lucky Finder, and both types of bets can actually benefit your account health, helping to balance out your Matched Betting activity and <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/top-tips-to-avoid-being-gubbed">avoid being gubbed</a> for longer.

In short, Value Betting on horse racing is one of the best ways to start as a new value bettor, so long as you’re already an experienced matched bettor with a good bankroll to get you going.

To find out more about our Value Betting tools, take a look at our guide to <a href="https://outplayed.com/pro">Outplayed Pro</a>, which takes you through our advanced Matched Betting and Value Betting tools that can help you maximise your sports betting profits, month after month after month.

Common Mistakes New Horse Racing Value Bettors Make

New value bettors often focus too heavily on finding winners rather than identifying value. Other common mistakes include overestimating their own probability assessments, failing to manage their bankroll, chasing losses after inevitable losing streaks, and placing too few bets for expected value to work over the long term. Successful value betting depends on consistency, discipline and accurate probability modelling rather than short-term results.&nbsp;

Ready To Find Horse Racing Value Bets Faster?&nbsp;

Estimating probabilities manually can take hours of research for every race. Outplayed&nbsp;helps simplify the process with expected value calculators, implied probability tools, betting trackers and educational resources designed to help UK bettors identify potential value betting opportunities more efficiently.&nbsp;

<a href="https://outplayed.com/user/register#1">Sign up for a free trial</a>, or alternatively dive right in with an <a href="https://outplayed.com/pro">Outplayed Pro</a> membership if you're keen to get going with Value Betting right away.

Paul Trevor

Value Betting In Horse Racing

Quick answer: Matched Betting involves betting on both (or all) outcomes of an event, and using sportsbook rewards to lock in a profit, no matter what happens. Value Betting involves finding and betting on selections whose odds are higher than the true probability of a win would imply, generating profits in the long term.

At some point in your <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting">Matched Betting</a> journey, you’ll probably come across the term ‘<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-value-betting">Value Betting</a>’ and wonder what exactly it means, and how it’s different from Matched Betting.

While they’re both techniques people use to make money through <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/sports-betting-guide">sports betting</a>,&nbsp;there are some pretty significant differences between them. Value Betting is generally considered a more advanced strategy, involving more risk than Matched Betting - but also the potential for greater reward.

In this article, we’ll take you through the following:

Comparing Value Betting And Matched Betting

In many ways, Matched Betting and Value Betting are very similar. Both rely on sports betting (a large and growing market)&nbsp;as part of a strategy to make consistent profits - in neither case are you just placing a bet because you’ve got a good feeling about a horse, or because you’re a lifelong supporter of Wigan Athletic.

Remote betting generated £2.6 billion in gross gambling yield in Great Britain during April 2024–March 2025, with football alone accounting for £1.3 billion.

- <a href="https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/publication/industry-statistics-annual-report-financial-year-april-2024-to-march-2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com">Gambling Commission</a>

There are, however, some very significant differences between the two techniques.

Matched Betting is the strategy of betting both for and against the same outcome. So for example, you might bet that Manchester United win a match, and also that they don’t win a match.

These two types of bet are called a ‘back bet’ and a ‘<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-lay-betting">lay bet</a>’ respectively. Your back bet is your bet that something will happen (i.e. Manchester United winning) and your lay bet is a bet that something won’t happen (that Manchester United won’t win). Your lay bet is placed with a <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-a-betting-exchange">betting exchange</a>, which allows you to bet against other punters, rather than with a bookie.

Between the two bets, you cover all outcomes.

The trick to turning this technique into profit lies in taking advantage of bookie promotions.

Bookies give out free bets like candy in order to attract new customers, and Matched Betting allows you to transform those free bets into predictable profits.

The UK Gambling Commission found that 73% of gamblers who received gambling incentives in the previous 12 months had received them for online betting, showing how central free bets and promotional offers are to the modern sportsbook market.

- <a href="https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/about-us/guide/consumer-experiences-and-attitudes-to-free-bets-and-bonuses?utm_source=chatgpt.com">Gambling Commission</a>

For example, you might see an offer where you have to place a £10 bet (known as a <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/qualifying-bet-guide">qualifying bet</a>) to receive a £10 free bet.

If you match both bets, you can roughly break even on the first bet, and then use your free bet to make a profit.

Value Betting, meanwhile, involves tracking down bets at odds that are higher than they should be. Your profits aren’t guaranteed but, over time, if you consistently bet at inflated odds, you are highly likely to end up in profit.

If a bet is offered at higher odds than its real likelihood of winning would suggest, it’s considered to hold <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-expected-value">positive expected value</a> (+EV).

The difficulty with Value Betting is working out what the true likelihood is of a certain outcome, so that you can compare this with the odds on offer from a bookie and track down bets with +EV.

Professional gamblers will perform exhaustive research and compile huge quantities of information and statistics in order to make these calculations, which is what allows them to make a living from gambling.

'Many people assume Value Betting is about predicting more winners than everyone else, but that's rarely the case. Long-term profitability comes from consistently taking prices that are better than the true probability, even when many of those individual bets still lose.'

For those of us who aren’t pros, though, there are tools available to help us locate +EV bets and to profit from them. Outplayed’s Pro and Elite membership levels include a range of Value Betting tools, which take all the work out of Value Betting - more on this later on!

Although both Matched Betting and Value Betting involve making money online through sports betting, the processes are quite different.

For each technique, the exact method will vary depending on the offer you’re completing (for Matched Betting) or the type of bet you’re placing (for Value Betting). However, the approximate series of steps for each is as follows:

1. First of all, you’ll need to find an offer to complete. If you’re an Outplayed member, you have access to a vast library of guides to bookie offers, making this first step a doddle. Otherwise, you can manually search bookies’ websites for offers, which are especially likely to be available around major sporting events.

2. Place your qualifying bet. Depending on the terms of the offer, you’ll usually have to place a bet with the bookie to qualify for your reward. Having done so, you need to lay it with a betting exchange - i.e. place a bet on the opposite outcome. This ensures that no matter what happens, you come out with only a small loss, usually of a few pence.

Outplayed members can use our <a href="https://outplayed.com/products/oddsmatcher">Oddsmatcher</a> to help here, which identifies the best matches available resulting in the smallest possible qualifying loss.

3. Receive and use your reward. Most commonly, you’ll receive a free bet once you’ve placed your qualifying bet, or once it’s settled. You follow the same process of finding a good match, ideally using Outplayed’s oddsmatching software: place your free bet, and then lay it on a betting exchange.

4. Profit! Once your bets have settled, you’ll end up with a profit. The exact amount is the profit from your free bet (usually around 80% of the free bet’s value) minus your qualifying loss.

1. Identify a selection with positive expected value. This is definitely the hardest bit about Value Betting! If you’re an Outplayed Pro member, though, you can use our powerful tools to track down bets with positive EV. Otherwise, you’ll need to come up with a system to identify the real likelihood of selections winning and compare it to the odds available from bookies to track down bets with potential profit in them.

2. Place your bet. This part’s dead easy - all you have to do is place a bet with the bookie as usual. You can use Outplayed Pro’s tools to help you decide how much to stake, to maximise your potential profits while minimising risk.

3. Check the results. Once the bet’s settled, make sure to check whether it won and make a note of your profit or loss. It’s important to keep track of your bets when Value Betting, so that you know how much money you’ve made and how successful your selections have been. Happily, Outplayed’s profit tracker allows you to save each bet and tallies your profits, so you can see exactly how much money your Value Betting has made you.

Matched Betting vs Value Betting Processes Summary

Advantages And Disadvantages Of Matched Betting And Value Betting

'One of the biggest mistakes people make is judging Value Betting by the outcome of a handful of bets. A strategy with genuine positive expected value can still lose repeatedly in the short term, whereas Matched Betting is designed to remove that uncertainty. Understanding that difference in variance is often what determines whether someone succeeds with either approach.'

Value Betting And Matched Betting At Outplayed

While it’s certainly possible to make money from Matched Betting or Value Betting on your own, it’s orders of magnitude easier with <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/our-membership-levels-explained">Outplayed membership</a>. We’ve got a range of tools to help you get the most out of your betting, whichever technique you decide to use.

By using our tools, and following our guides, Outplayed allows you to:

Outplayed Platinum membership gains you access to the following Matched Betting tools and guides:

For experienced matched bettors looking to move on to Value Betting, Outplayed’s Pro and Elite&nbsp;membership levels are the perfect assistant. As well as everything included in the lower membership levels, you gain access to the following Value Betting tools:

Stephanie Sorrell

The Difference Between Value Betting and Matched Betting

Quick answer: <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-value-betting">Value Betting</a> involves placing bets at higher odds than the true probability of a win, resulting in a statistically profitable strategy in the long-term. In football, a Value Betting strategy would involve finding bets with positive expected value on football markets.

Ball games bearing some resemblance to modern football have been in existence for centuries, but the game (roughly) as we know it was standardised in the mid-19th century with the founding of the Football Association.

Since then, football has grown to become the most popular sport worldwide, with an estimated 250 million players active in over 200 countries and territories.

<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/how-to-bet-on-football">Betting on football</a> has been popular for just as long - although for a long time it was dominated by bookies of dubious legitimacy. Nowadays, it’s perfectly legal, and a huge betting market in the UK and overseas.

The chief beneficiary of all that betting, though, is the bookies, who make vast fortunes from hopeful punters.

However, there is a statistically sound way to make money from football, which is known as Value Betting. This technique, employed by both professional sports bettors and experienced recreational bettors, involves finding and placing bets at higher odds than the likelihood of a win would imply - meaning that, in the long run, you can expect to end up in profit.

In this article, we’ll explain what Value Betting is, how it works in football, and the strategies and tools you can use to make a profit through Value Betting on football yourself.

We know that Value Betting involves betting at higher odds than the real likelihood of a win would imply - but how exactly does that work?

Well, a bet with higher odds than the true probability of a win would imply results in positive expected value. While that bet isn’t guaranteed to win, you would expect to end up with a profit if you placed a large number of similar bets long term.

This is a very different technique from <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting">Matched Betting</a>, where you know in advance what your profit will be from each bet, meaning that you aren’t facing any real risk in your betting activity, except that of making an error.

Value Betting does involve risk. Although you would expect to end up in profit in the long term, in the short term you will see upswings and downswings, which you need to be able to weather.

We therefore don’t recommend Value Betting as a strategy unless you’re an experienced matched bettor or sports bettor and you have a good starting bankroll, of around £1000 or more.

When it comes to Value Betting on football specifically, there are a number of strategies you can use to extract profit from the bookies. The most basic involves simply identifying bets whose true probability is higher than the odds would imply, perhaps because of conditions the bookie hasn’t accounted for, or a last minute change to the line-up for a match.

The main problem with this method, other than the difficulty of identifying those bets in the first place, is that bookies tend to be aware of when their odds have been higher than they should be, and consistently betting at those inflated odds is a surefire way to attract a bookie’s attention, risking a swift gubbing.

But there are other, subtler football Value Betting methods out there, which we’ll delve into later on.

Of course, the fact that a bet is listed at odds of 4 with a bookie doesn’t mean that its true chance of winning is actually 25%, because probability isn’t the only factor used by bookies to determine their odds.

Normally, a bookie’s odds will be lower than the true probability of a win, allowing for their <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/how-betting-sites-make-money">profit margin</a>. Sometimes, though, a bookie might not have adjusted their odds to account for changes to the true probability of an outcome, or they might not be aware of a factor affecting it.

Many bettors overestimate how much team reputation predicts match outcomes. Football is a low-scoring sport where small factors—tactical changes, player availability and schedule congestion—can shift probabilities more than public perception, creating opportunities before prices fully adjust.

For example, you might have good reason to believe that a team’s true chance of winning a match is 20%, which equates to odds of 5 (4/1 in fractional odds), sometimes known as 'true odds'. If, therefore, you managed to find a bookie offering odds of 6, you would have a bet that holds positive expected value.

On this basis, each individual bet’s expected value would be £2 (even though it wouldn’t be possible actually to make £2 in profit from any single bet at these odds).

This illustrates exactly why Value Betting works in the long term - but it does rely on your placing a large volume of bets over time. You’ll see ups and downs, but the more bets you place, the more closely your total profit will reflect the expected value of all the bets you’ve placed.

Successful Value Betting in football requires extensive research. You need to know everything there is to know about the players, grounds, coaches and performance history of both teams involved in any given match.

This probably means compiling your own statistical database and using this information to calculate the ‘true’ probability of any outcome in a match (ideally including as many markets as possible, such as total goals, <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-asian-handicap">handicap markets</a>, and individual player markets), and then converting those probabilities into the true odds for each outcome.

Outplayed Blog

Matched Betting

Page 1