Stephanie Sorrell

To err is human. But still, we’d prefer not to.

And when you first <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting">start Matched Betting</a>, you’ll probably be particularly worried about screwing up. One of the biggest advantages of Matched Betting is that it’s risk free, so long as you follow the instructions correctly. So what if you make a mistake?

In most cases, there are ways to correct an error, so there’s probably no need to panic! But the best option is simply not to make an error in the first place, and the best way to achieve that is to be aware of the potential pitfalls in advance.

We’ve compiled some of the most common Matched Betting mistakes and explained what they are, why they’re a problem, and how to make sure you avoid them.

The 14 Most Common Matched Betting Mistakes

1. Placing your lay bet before your back bet

New matched bettors often wonder why exactly this matters. You’re placing two bets designed to cancel each other out - aren’t they roughly equivalent?

Not really. As a general rule, you’re placing a fixed amount (say, £5 for a qualifying bet, or a £5 free bet) as your back bet, and your lay bet is calculated based on the odds to match it.

Odds can sometimes change quite quickly, however, and inevitably at some point you’ll find that the odds have changed between the placing of your first bet and your second.

If you’ve placed your back bet first, you can simply adjust the lay odds in the calculator and place your lay bet with the updated odds without any difficulties. If you’d placed your lay bet first, however, it would be far more difficult to adjust the back bet to avoid excess losses.

Solution: Don’t forget always to place your back bet first.

2. Forgetting to check the terms of an offer

Bookies will often place restrictions on the terms of an offer, and you need to know what they are before you go ahead and start placing bets.

The most common things to miss are the minimum odds and the number of selections for a bet builder or accumulator bet. You may also need to have made a deposit with a particular payment method (usually a debit card).

It sounds straightforward enough to check the terms and stick to them, but we’re all human, and capable of doing incredibly silly things from time to time. I once opted in to a snooker-based offer and, with great confidence, went on to place a qualifying bet on darts, then wondered why my free bet hadn’t been credited.

There can also be quite narrow restrictions for the promotion dates, or a requirement to place your qualifying (or free) bet on a particular event - but so long as you’ve paid attention, you’ll know exactly what you need to do.

Solution: Always double check the terms of an offer before you place your qualifying bet.

3. Mixing up the names of events/competitors (especially horses)

This may sound like too basic a mistake to make, but you should always double check both the event and the competitor you’re betting on, particularly with horse racing.

There are a number of races at each racecourse on race days, and it isn’t difficult to mix up a 15:45 and 17:45 race, or even to mix up similar courses like Newbury and Newmarket (that’s one I’m definitely guilty of on occasion).

And with the sheer number of race horses competing in races, sometimes their names will be similar enough to cause confusion.

Always check that both the name of the horse and the odds match up with what you’re expecting, and you shouldn’t ever end up placing a bet on the wrong one.

Solution: Double check the details of your bets before you place them.

4. Forgetting to change the calculator settings between Normal and Free Bet mode, or using the wrong calculator

Hopefully, you’d notice before actually placing your bets if the calculator was in the wrong mode - the qualifying loss/profit figures would look quite odd - but nonetheless, it’s best to double check.

When moving on to using the advanced calculators, you should always make sure you understand exactly what they’re designed to do before using them. Newer matched bettors should work through the easier offers to build their confidence before moving on to more challenging ones that require advanced calculators.

For example, the <a href="https://outplayed.com/calculators/racing-refund-calculator">Racing Refund</a>, <a href="https://outplayed.com/calculators/bonus-lockin-calculator">Bonus Lock-in</a> and <a href="https://outplayed.com/calculators/refund-if-calculator">Refund If</a> calculators all cover fairly similar situations, so it’s important you understand the differences between them. Each calculator has its own guide, which we strongly recommend reading in full before you begin.

Solution: Make a habit of selecting the calculator mode every time you use the calculator - even if the default ‘Normal’ mode is the right one - so you can’t forget to change it when you need to.

5. Forgetting to check the available liquidity in the exchange

When you find a really close match at great odds, it can be all too easy to get carried away and place your back bet before you’ve checked the availability in the exchange.

It’s such a disappointing moment when you attempt to place your lay bet only to discover that there’s a total of £2 available at those perfect odds, meaning you have to settle for worse odds and less profit, especially when it was so easily avoidable.

To avoid similar small tragedies, use the ‘Availability’ filter in the Oddsmatching tool, and set it to something comfortably higher than the rough amount you want to lay. There’s always a chance that the availability will decrease just as you’re trying to bet, especially on very popular events, but this is much less likely to happen with a healthy amount of liquidity in the market.

Solution: Use the ‘Availability’ filter whenever you use the Oddsmatcher, so that only matches with enough liquidity are shown.

6. Trying to bet with insufficient funds in your account

This one almost seems too obvious to mention, but nonetheless it does happen. Experienced matched bettors tend to keep significant sums in their exchange accounts, so it can be easy to forget that you might run out if you place several bets with large liabilities.

Given the speed at which odds can change on some events, you really don’t want to have to top up your exchange account having already placed your back bet, causing a potentially unprofitable delay. So, always do a quick check that you’ve got plenty of cash available in your exchange account - handily confirmed for you on the Outplayed Oddsmatcher if your accounts are linked - before you start placing your bets.

Solution: Keep track of your cash, and top up your exchange accounts if they get too low.

7. Placing an unmatched or partially matched bet

Placing an <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-are-unmatched-bets">unmatched or partially matched bet</a> can be a consequence of number 5 - there being insufficient liquidity in the exchange. An unmatched or partially matched bet occurs when you go ahead and place your lay bet at those odds regardless.

Your bet is unmatched because there isn’t currently anyone who’s placed a back bet at those odds to match your lay bet to. It’s possible that your bet will be matched as the event draws nearer, but it’s safer to cancel the unmatched portion of your bet and try again, placing the remainder at whatever odds have enough availability. Otherwise, you risk your bet remaining unmatched, which could result in an overall loss from the bet.

Solution: Ideally, use the ‘Availability’ filter to avoid placing an unmatched bet - but if you do end up with your bet not fully matched, our <a href="https://outplayed.com/calculators/fixabet-calculator">Fixabet</a> tool can help rectify the error.

Matched bettors aren’t too popular with bookies, funnily enough, and they use every tool at their disposal to detect behaviour indicative of Matched Betting.

So don’t make it easy for them! Focus on popular events that you’d expect genuine punters to be betting on. You may have found an incredibly close match on Swedish second division football, but the small amount of extra profit you might make on that particular game isn’t worth potentially losing your account.

For more tips on how to blend in, take a look at our guide to <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/top-tips-to-avoid-being-gubbed">avoiding being gubbed</a>.

Solution: Stick to major events as far as possible. If you don’t already support a particular football team, it’s not a bad idea to start supporting one - and placing bets on them every so often.

It may not sound very exciting, but it’s important to keep a record of all the bets you make, whether you use Outplayed’s handy <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/matched-betting-spreadsheet">Profit Tracker</a> or a spreadsheet of your own.

It’s easy to become confused if you’re betting frequently, and having detailed records ensures you never miss any free bets you’ve earned, or forget to check on the outcome of an event. Especially with horse racing, it’s important to have a record of your bet, so you can go back to the bookie and check the results.

If your horse ended up not running, for example, your bet would have been voided both at the bookie and the exchange - for a free bet, you’d usually need to place it again. Meanwhile, in the event of a <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/rule-4-deductions-explained">Rule 4 deduction</a>, your profits may have been a little lower than expected - or in the case of <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/best-odds-guaranteed-in-matched-betting">Best Odds Guaranteed</a> being invoked, they could also be significantly higher.

Solution: Use either a Profit Tracker tool or your own spreadsheet to keep track of your betting activity.

Similarly, you need to know where your money is. Although it can be a pleasant surprise to find an unexpected tenner lurking in one of your little-used bookie accounts, it’s far more sensible to ensure you have a record of all your deposits.

As you become more experienced, you’ll probably end up maintaining a reasonable sum in all your most-used bookie accounts, to save yourself having to make constant deposits and withdrawals, but you’d be wise to keep a note of how much you have with each of them nonetheless. To make this easier, Outplayed include a balance sheet in your account to keep track of exactly where all your money is.

Solution: Use a spreadsheet or our handy <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/matched-betting-spreadsheet">balance sheet</a> to keep your records up to date

Winning too much can be a trigger for gubbing, so some matched bettors reason that the easiest way to avoid this is never to win your back bets. After all, if your matched bets always win on the exchange side, the bookie will only see that they’re making money from you, and consider you a good customer.

The problem with this is that it means you end up placing all your bets at very high odds, in order to reduce the likelihood of the back bet winning. But that doesn’t mean that the back bet never wins, and when it does win at high odds, a large chunk of your money has gone straight back to the bookie, leaving you at square one.

Although you should be careful about behaviours that might identify you as a matched bettor, you should bear in mind that real gamblers will win at least some of their bets, so you don’t always need to lose to blend in. You’re better off placing a few <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-mug-betting">mug bets</a>&nbsp;to divert bookie suspicion.

Solution: Place a mug bet, that isn’t tied to an offer, from time to time, to look more like a regular punter.

When you start seeing profits from your Matched Betting, it’s very tempting to spend them right away. However, it’s a much better strategy to build up your bankroll first. With a larger bankroll, you’re able to make the most of whatever offers come your way, which will add up to significantly higher profits in the long term.

It’s up to you to decide the point at which you feel you’ve got enough money built up to be worth withdrawing it and spending it on whatever you’ve been working towards - a holiday or a car perhaps, or just extra funds to tuck away for a rainy day - but whatever you decide, make sure you leave enough in your bankroll to make more profits in the meantime.

Solution: Set yourself a minimum threshold for your balances (for example, £300 in an exchange) and only withdraw when you’re over that balance. This will allow you to enjoy your profits without harming your ability to make more of them.

If you’re new to Matched Betting, the idea of becoming complacent is probably quite hard to imagine. When they first get started, most people double, triple, quadruple and quintuple check everything before they bet, just in case they missed something on the first four passes.

But as with anything, the more Matched Betting you do, the easier it gets. The vast majority of mistakes, including most of those listed in this article, stem from rushing, paying insufficient attention, or becoming complacent. No matter how experienced you become, it’s important to remain careful, and not to place bets when you’re distracted or in a hurry.

Solution: No matter how experienced you come, remind yourself regularly to be careful! And don’t carry out your Matched Betting when you don’t really have time for it.

This is perhaps the biggest potential danger, and the most important thing to avoid. Matched Betting is not gambling, but it does put you in touch with the gambling world, and for some people that can be a strong temptation.

If you’ve placed a back bet at high odds and it ends up winning, it’s easy to look at the comparatively small profit you’ve made from the matched bet and reflect that if you hadn’t matched it you’d have ended up much, much better off. But you’d be forgetting about all the high odds back bets that didn’t win, which is exactly the trap the bookies are hoping you’ll fall into.

Bookies make money because real gamblers pretty much always lose. If that weren’t the case, they wouldn’t be in business. As a matched bettor, you have to be disciplined to avoid becoming just another punter yourself.

If you’ve struggled with a gambling addiction in the past, we strongly advise against taking up Matched Betting. It may not be a form of gambling itself, but it’s close enough to be unsafe for anybody at risk of falling prey to a gambling addiction.

Solution: If you find that your Matched Betting is tipping into gambling for real, get help. <a href="https://www.gamstop.co.uk">GamStop</a> are a great place to start if you feel as though you’re losing control and need to get back on track.

2. If you’re a member of a Matched Betting site such as <a href="https://outplayed.com/">Outplayed</a>, follow the step-by-step instructions for an offer closely. They check all the terms such as minimum odds on your behalf, so if you follow along you won’t go wrong.

3. Don’t bet when you’re pushed for time

4. Double check the odds before placing a bet

5. Make use of the filters on the Oddsmatcher (especially Availability and Minimum Odds)

6. Keep track of your available funds

It does occasionally turn out that an error will work in your favour. For example, you might find that you’ve made an unlayable back bet that ends up winning, resulting in pure profit.

However, the likelihood is that a mistake will be to your detriment, not to your benefit. Even if you discover a mistake that’s resulted in a greater profit than expected, you should never rely on getting lucky. Just be glad that you escaped without losing any money, and take extra care not to let it happen again!

If you realise that you’ve made a mistake, don’t panic. A lot of mistakes are fixable, especially if you’ve followed our general guidelines.

Our <a href="https://outplayed.com/calculators/fixabet-calculator">Fixabet</a>&nbsp;calculator allows you to fix any mistakes with overlaid or partially matched lay bets, so in the majority of cases you’ll be able to salvage the situation. And if you find it tricky to work out what you need to do to fix your mistake, our expert <a href="https://outplayed.com/contact">customer support</a> agents are available every day to lend you a hand.

Now that you’re aware of the most common pitfalls when Matched Betting, you’ve got all the information you need to avoid them.

Of course, everybody makes a mistake from time to time, and even the most experienced Matched Bettors aren’t immune. The most important thing is always to pay attention to what you’re doing - and don’t forget that in most cases a small error isn’t the end of the world.

14 Biggest Beginner Matched Betting Mistakes To Avoid

Ben Adams

During 2024, Outplayed’s Pro and Pro Plus tools became more powerful than ever, and one member, Ellis11, has been making the most of it.

A long-time user of Outplayed and early tester of our new <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/golf-master">Golf Master tool</a>, Ellis11 has quietly built up over £52,000 in profit using a combination of Pro and Pro Plus tools.

Ellis has been kind enough to share their journey, from getting started as a student to now operating with a five-figure bankroll and betting around 30 hours per week.

Whether you’re new to <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-value-betting">value betting</a> or already using the <a href="https://outplayed.com/pro">Outplayed Pro</a> and Pro Plus tools yourself, there’s a lot to learn from Ellis’s approach.

From Student Side Hustle To Serious Profit

Ellis first discovered Matched Betting in early 2021 while studying at university and built up a bankroll from their profits before starting value betting with the Outplayed Pro tools last year.

“I started Matched betting through a friend of mine. I’ve now finished uni and work part-time, but I’ve been value betting since late 2024.”

Ellis has been an Outplayed member for over four and a half years now, steadily progressing from Matched Betting into more advanced strategies.

As of today, Ellis’s profit using the Pro Tools sits at over £52,000.

While Ellis uses most of the tools available through the Outplayed Pro membership, the main focus has been on:

Each plays a different role in the strategy, but the Steam Chaser is where most of the weekly turnover happens.

“I’ve made over £52,000 from the Pro Tools overall. The Steam Chaser is the one I use the most during the week.”

Ellis tracks everything carefully using both the in built profit tracker and spreadsheets to manage results. Check out some of Ellis’s results so far:

Steam Chaser: 1762 bets placed using the Steam Chaser making a total profit of £20841.61

Extra Place Master: 6675 bets placed using the Extra Place Master making a total profit of £26724.15

2UP Master: 538 bets placed using the 2UP Master making a total profit of £3335.48

When it comes to Steam Chaser, Ellis sticks to a focused setup and avoids cluttered markets.

“I mainly bet on Football and Basketball, but mostly football. I turn off half-time results and avoid corners/bookings. I focus on Match Result, Handicaps, and Match Totals.I have found a lot of success with Asian handicaps, especially 0.0 (also known as Draw No Bet)."

Ellis also configures these Steam Chaser filters to the following:

Markets: Winner, Handicaps, Match Totals

As one of the early testers of the <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/golf-master">Golf Master</a>, Ellis has already seen encouraging results, despite some near misses.

“The Golf Master is a great way to get value on weekly golf tournaments, especially majors. So far, I’ve made £289 profit with an expected value (EV) of £679.I’ve been unlucky recently - finished 2nd in four straight tournaments - but the EV is there.”

A Week In The Life: Time, Setup, And Routine

Ellis treats this like a serious side hustle - putting in around 30 hours per week.

“I usually bet between 9am–12pm, especially on Saturdays.&nbsp;That’s where most of the value is. I also target big events like Cheltenham, Royal Ascot, and the start of the football season.”

It’s also good to hear Ellis’s set-up is refreshingly simple:

“I just have a laptop and phone. That’s all I’ve used since I started.”

Ellis now manages the following separate bankrolls across different value betting strategies:

Ellis uses quarter Kelly staking to stay consistent and to manage variance during the inevitable downswings.

“My biggest downswings were around £4,600 on horses and £4,800 on Steam Chaser. It’s tough, but I stay focused on getting EV. Long-term, it evens out.”

Avoiding Gubbings And Protecting Accounts

When it comes to <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/top-tips-to-avoid-being-gubbed">avoiding being gubbed</a> and account longevity, Ellis takes a cautious but deliberate approach:

“On new accounts, I start slowly - I take lower-value bets and mix in some mug bets. Over time, I’ll gradually increase my stake size and go after more valuable bets.I also avoid huge EV bets, like 130%+, as I think those get flagged more easily.”

With over four years of experience and more than £50k in profits, Ellis’s advice is clear and grounded:

“Pick a strategy and stick to it. Focus on grabbing as much expected value (EV) as possible and don’t give up when you hit a bad run.&nbsp;Preparation is everything. Make sure you have accounts opened and money ready. You need to be quick to get the best prices.”

From a student just starting out to a serious bettor with tens of thousands in profit, Ellis’s journey is a brilliant example of what’s possible with the right tools and consistent effort.

The value betting tools, like Steam Chaser, Extra Place Master and Golf Master, are powerful - but they work best in the hands of someone who treats value betting with discipline and patience.

If you’ve got your own success story to share, we’d love to hear it. Just reach out to the <a href="https://outplayed.com/contact">Outplayed team</a> or post in the forum.

How This Long-Time Member Made £52,000 From Value Betting Alone Last Year

Simon Thatcher

The Martingale Strategy is one of the most famous betting systems ever created, promising an almost irresistible allure: if you just keep doubling your stake, you’re bound to come out ahead eventually, right?

Imagine sitting at the roulette table, on the brink of victory or disaster, each spin seemingly bringing you closer to triumph—or deeper into the red.

The idea sounds simple, and in theory, it even seems foolproof. But why, then, do casinos not only allow it but welcome it?

You can certainly give yourself a long-term edge at online casinos by taking advantage of their numerous <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/why-you-need-to-do-casino-offers" target="_blank" title="">casino offers</a>. In this article, though, we’ll dive deep into the Martingale Strategy’s history, its appeal, and, most importantly, the harsh reality behind why it’s not the golden ticket it may appear to be.

Before you place your next bet, read on to learn why this system could lead to more losses than you might expect.

The Martingale Strategy is a betting strategy where you double your wager if you lose, and return to your original stake if you win.

It’s usually used for bets that pay twice your stake if you win, for example betting on red or black in <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/how-to-play-roulette" target="_blank" title="">roulette</a>, or <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/types-of-bets" target="_blank" title="">sports bets</a> at evens (2.0 odds). We’ll concentrate on red/black roulette bets here.

Let’s imagine you’re playing roulette at the casino, with a £10 chip on black for your first wager.

The croupier declares ‘no more bets’ and spins the wheel. After jumping around chaotically, the ball looks to have settled in the black 26 pocket, but bounces out at the last minute and ends up in red 19, leaving you £10 down.&nbsp;

Normally you’d just about to put another £10 chip on black, but you remember an intriguing system you’ve read about that seems to give you a surefire way of ending the night in profit. Even if you win wager another £10 and win, you’ll only cover your existing loss and break even over the two wagers. But what if you double your stake to £20?

Then, if you win the next wager, you’ll be £20 up for the round, covering the loss from the previous round and giving you £10 profit on top.&nbsp;

With this in mind, you double up, sliding two £10 chips onto black this time. Again, the wheel spins. Again, it lands on red. Another £20 loss, and you’re now £30 down overall. 

No problem though - if you double your stake to £40, a winning bet will give you £40 profit. This will cover your losses of £30 and leave you £10 up overall.&nbsp;

This time, you’re in luck - the ball comes to rest in the black 29 pocket, and you win £40.

Not wanting to push your luck any more, you cash in your chips and leave the casino £10 richer, pleased with yourself for turning a losing position into a profit.&nbsp;

The system you’ve used is called the Martingale Strategy, or Martingale System, and it’s been around for well over 200 years. It’s easy to describe in a few words:

If you lose, double your stake. If you win, bet your original stake.&nbsp;

The idea is that, as long as you eventually have a winning bet, you’ll always cover your previous losses plus a profit equal to your original stake.&nbsp;

Below are a few possible winning runs using the Martingale Strategy, betting on black at the roulette table and starting with a £10 stake.

Example 2 - First two bets lose and 3rd Bet Wins

Example 3 - First three bets lose and 4th Bet Wins

In each case, you’ve come away with a £10 overall profit by doubling down until you get a winner. After each winning run, you’d return to your original £10 stake for the next wager.

The table below shows that no matter which spin you win with, your overall profit will be equal to your original stake. That’s assuming you have a winning spin, of course. This example uses a more modest £1 starting stake:

For example, if you lost the first 7 spins, your total loss so far would be the sum of the previous losses:

Loss on First 7 Spins = £1 + £2 + £4 + £8 + £16 + £32 + £64 = £127

Your stake on the 8th spin would be doubled from £64 to £128. If this won, you’d make £128 profit on this spin, covering your previous losses of £127 and giving an additional £1 profit on top.&nbsp;

Whilst it might seem exciting to have a £2048 win on your 12th spin, it’s important to realise that your actual overall profit for this ‘Martingale round’ (a run of results between one win and the next) is only £1. That’s despite having been £2047 down from the previous rounds and risking a further £2048 loss on that 12th spin.

The staking pattern for the Martingale Strategy, where you double up every time you lose, is an example of a geometric progression. With this sort of progression, to get the next term in the sequence, you multiply the previous term by a certain number (in this case, this number is 2, as we’re doubling our stake). As you can see from the ‘Stake’ column in the table above, with this sort of progression, the numbers get very big, very quickly.

The Martingale Strategy is thought to have originated in France in the 18th Century, where it was a popular system with gamblers. How it got its name is uncertain, but it’s been suggested that the word martingale comes from the Provençal expression ‘jouga a la martegalo’, which means “to play in an absurd and incomprehensible way”. You’ll soon see that this is a pretty good description of the strategy.&nbsp;

It’s often suggested that the Martingale Strategy was either named after or popularised by an 18th century London casino owner, John H. Martindale. According to legend, he used to walk around the casino, encouraging his customers to double their bets if they lost. It’s a nice story, but may well not be true.&nbsp;

In the summer of 1891, English gambler and fraudster Charles De Ville Wells visited the Monte Carlo Casino, where it’s said he ‘broke the bank’ by winning more than the 100,000 francs cash reserve of the table, which led to the casino having to suspend play on the table whilst they brought more funds from the casino’s vaults. He claimed to be using an ‘infallible system’, which some people believe to have been the Martingale Strategy.

Why You Shouldn’t Use the Martingale Strategy

There are several reasons why the Martingale Strategy doesn’t work, but first, let’s look at one situation where it does work.&nbsp;

The Martingale Strategy is a perfect system if you have infinite money and play at casinos with no table limit.&nbsp;

With infinite money and no table limits, you’d always be able to keep doubling up until you won, since it’s almost 100% certain that you’ll eventually have a winning spin.

Dragging ourselves back to the real world, where casinos definitely have table limits and, sadly, none of us have infinite wealth, you’ll see there are several very good reasons why the Martingale Strategy doesn’t work.&nbsp;

<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/gamblers-fallacy" target="_blank" title="">Gambler’s Fallacy</a> is a commonly-held, but mistaken belief that if an independent and random event has happened less frequently than expected, it’s more likely to happen in the future (or vice versa).&nbsp;

To understand what this actually means, imagine you’re flipping a coin and have seen a run of 5 heads in a row. Instinctively, you might think that 6 heads in a row is very unlikely, so the next flip has a greater chance of landing on tails.

This isn’t the case, since neither the coin nor the Universe have any ‘memory’ of any of the previous results. As long as it’s a fair coin, it will always have the same 50% chance of landing on heads, no matter what’s happened with previous results.&nbsp;

If you have any doubts about this, try coming up with an explanation of how a coin flip could possibly be linked to the previous coin flip, or how the last spin on a roulette table could affect the next spin.&nbsp;

You’ll often see discussions about gambling on roulette where people suggest waiting for a run of one colour at the roulette table before starting the Martingale Strategy on the other colour.

Of course, since each spin is completely independent of all others, it makes no difference at all when you start the strategy - you’ll always have exactly an 18/37 chance of your colour coming up.

If you wait for 5 reds in a row, before starting to bet on black, not only does it make no difference at all to your chances of winning, you’ll also spend much more time waiting for these long runs of reds than you will actually placing any wagers!

For a random and independent event, previous results have no effect on future outcomes.

Examples of random and independent events are coin tosses, roulette spins and spins on online slot machines.&nbsp;

Going a little deeper into this, the misunderstanding arises because people know that there is only a relatively small chance of having a run of the same outcome (for example, flipping a coin 6 times and getting 6 heads). As you’ll see below, this is true:

Probability of getting 6 heads from 6 coin flips = ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ = 1/64

This doesn’t tell the full story though. This 1 in 64 chance only applies before flipping the coin the first time. If you’ve already flipped 5 heads, these previous results are irrelevant to any future results. After already flipping 5 heads, the chance of getting the 6th head in a row is 1 in 2, not 1 in 64.&nbsp;

Another name for Gambler’s Fallacy is the Monte Carlo Fallacy, so called because of a particular game of roulette played at the Monte Carlo Casino in 1913, where the ball landed on black an unusually large number of times in a row. The casino’s customers became increasingly convinced that after such a long run of blacks, it was almost certain to land on red soon, so started betting increasing amounts of money on red. Unfortunately for them, the run only ended after black had turned up an astonishing 26 times in a row! Needless to say, lots of people lost a lot of money that night, whilst the casino made a tidy profit.&nbsp;

If you’d been using the Martingale Strategy with a 10p starting stake on that run, betting on red each time, and with a bankroll to cover all the required wagers, you’d be over £6.7 million down after those 26 losses!&nbsp;

But just how likely is it that you’ll have a losing streak that wipes out your entire bankroll when using the Martingale Strategy? Probably more likely than you think!

We’ve already seen that there’s only a 1 in 64 chance of flipping a coin six times in a row and getting six heads. Moving onto red or black roulette bets, the chance of winning any particular spin is slightly less than 50%, thanks to the green zero (or, if you’re playing American roulette, the zero and double zero).&nbsp;

With European roulette, which has only one zero, there are 18 reds, 18 blacks and 1 green, so 37 possible outcomes. Betting on black, 18 out of the 37 possible outcomes are winning spins.&nbsp;

Probability of winning = 18/37 = 48.64%

As you’ve already seen, if you have a winning spin, your overall profit each time you is just your original stake, so nothing dramatic happens with winning streaks. With losing streaks, your loss doubles each time you lose, so it’s much more important to look at the chance of a losing streak.&nbsp;

There are 19 outcomes that are not black, so betting on black, the probability of losing is:

Probability of losing 1 spin = 19/37 = 51.4%

Probability of losing 6 spins in a row = 19/37 x 19/37 x 19/37 x 19/37 x 19/37 x 19/37 = 1.83%

This is about a 1 in 54 chance, so it’s not particularly likely that you’ll have 6 losing spins out of 6 wagers. However, if you’re playing roulette, you probably won’t just do 6 spins and walk away. A more important question to ask is how likely is a losing streak of 6 when you’re doing a longer run of spins.&nbsp;

This is a bit more complicated to work out, but here’s a table showing the chance of having at least one losing streak of 6 or more at some point when doing different numbers of spins. The loss you’d have incurred from this losing streak, if you started with a £1 stake, is also included.

With a £1 starting stake, your loss from a losing streak of 6 would be £63.

As you can see, if you do 100 spins, there’s a greater than 50% chance that you’ll have a streak of at least 6 losing spins. If you do 1000 spins, it’s almost a dead cert.

But what about longer losing streaks?&nbsp;

With a £1 starting stake, your loss from a losing streak of 7 would be £127.

With a £1 starting stake, your loss from a losing streak of 8 would be £255.

The chance of longer losing streaks is obviously lower for a given number of total spins, but you only need to do a surprisingly small number of spins to be almost certain to hit at least one run of that length or more. 

As you can see, if you do 1000 spins, your chance of hitting 7 losing spins in a row is over 99%. If you do 2500 spins, you’ll almost certainly lose 8 or more wagers in a row at least once.

With a £1 starting stake, your loss from a losing streak of 9 would be £511.

With a £1 starting stake, your loss from a losing streak of 10 would be £1023.

5000 spins makes a losing streak of 9 or more almost certain, and 10000 spins means you’re almost certain to see a losing streak of at least 10.&nbsp;

It’s worth emphasising what’s at stake (no pun intended) if you try the Martingale Strategy. Starting with a £10 stake and doing 10,000 spins, there is a lower than 1 in 500 chance that you won’t end up losing £10,230 or more after hitting a losing streak of 10 in a row!&nbsp;

Martingale Strategy: Does It Work? Insights

Outplayed’s Golf Master is a powerful tool designed to help you take high-value each way bets on golf.

Available exclusively to Outplayed Pro Plus members, it’s built for advanced bettors who want to extract value from bookmaker odds each week.

If you’ve ever used the <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/extra-place-master">Extra Place Master</a> in No Lay mode, you’ll feel right at home.

The Golf Master works in a similar way, but specifically for golf, by analysing every player in a tournament and highlighting which bets have the highest <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-expected-value">expected value</a> (EV).

That means no more guesswork. Just clear, data-backed bets that show which golfers are worth backing.

In this post, we’ll break down how the Golf Master works, when to use it, and how it can help you consistently place smarter, more profitable bets each week.

The Golf Master scans upcoming golf tournaments to calculate the expected value (EV) of each golfer.

Once calculated, the bets are listed in order of EV, so the most profitable opportunities appear right at the top.

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