Top Tennis Betting Strategies: Boost Your Winnings

It’s not easy to be a successful sports bettor. The odds are against you - quite literally - and, unless you get very lucky, the majority of punters will end up losing money overall.

However, there are people who manage to consistently profit from sports betting and, specifically, from betting on tennis. Tennis is a sport where the odds often shift rapidly, especially when live betting, because momentum can swing from one player to another frequently and dramatically.

With two evenly matched players, each can seem unstoppable for a time, before the other takes control of the match. And with up to five sets in men’s grand slam tennis, matches can have a lot of live betting time to work with.

So what is the best way to take advantage of this sport when betting? What type of bet offers you your best chance of a profit? And is there any way to actually guarantee a win? In this article, we’ll dive deep into all these questions to uncover the best strategies for profiting through tennis betting in 2025.

Betting On Tennis

Tennis is a sport with an unusual scoring system, which offers an interesting range of opportunities for betting markets. If you’re not already familiar with how tennis scoring works, we’d recommend you check out our dedicated guide to start off with, as it’s very unwise to start betting on a sport if you don’t fully understand the rules.

We’ll run through the main tennis betting markets below.

Match winner

This one’s about as self-explanatory as markets get - you’re betting on a player to come out the winner of a match. It’s wise to double check on the retirement rules for the betting site in question, though, so you know what’ll happen if your player has to retire from the match.

Set betting (correct score)

You have two options when it comes to betting on the correct score. Bettors can bet on what the match score will be in terms of sets - for example, in a five set match, you would have the following options for the correct score of the match:

Player A: 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2

Player B: 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2

In three set matches, your options would only be 2-0 or 2-1.

You can also place bets on the correct score for an individual set. There are far more possibilities here, as each set has a minimum of 6 games, so the possible outcomes would be:

6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5, 7-6 (tie-break)

Set winner

This is a straightforward bet on which player will win a particular set.

Game betting

Getting into the finer detail of a match, you can bet on how many games there will be in a match or set, and also whether the number of games in a match will be odd or even.

Handicap betting

As with other forms of handicap betting, in tennis this involves giving one player an imaginary ‘handicap’ to even up the betting. For example, if the favourite in a match is given a handicap of -1.5, they would have to win by two sets for the bet to win.

Tournament winner

As it sounds, this market involves betting on the outright winner of a tournament (e.g. the Wimbledon winner, or the winner of the US Open). You can often also bet on the players you think will make it through to the semi-finals or finals of the tournament.

Next to win

In-play betting is especially popular with tennis, and dedicated markets are available for in-play betting. For example, you can bet on the next player to win a set, game or even point, or the next player to serve an ace.

Do Your Research

If you’re planning to get into betting on tennis, the first thing you have to do is a lot of research. Without specialist knowledge, you’re essentially relying on luck - which is likely to result in losing money the vast majority of the time. Experienced tennis bettors know the game and its players inside out, and you’re more likely to do well if you put yourself in the same position.

Some key aspects of tennis you should acquaint yourself with are as follows.

Player performance

This isn’t just a case of checking a player’s ranking or seeding - although that’s certainly a good place to start. Take a look at their career history, including their tournament wins, their style of play, and how they’ve fared against top ranked players in the past.

You should also take a look at their current form. A player can have major tournament wins in their past but be struggling in the present - recent form can therefore be a much better indicator of their likely performance in the immediate future.

Environment

Tennis is unusual in having several different surface types, the main three being clay, grass, and hard.

The majority of players will have a surface that suits their game best; grass courts tend to be the preferred surface of players with a powerful serve and fast shots, while clay, as a slower surface, rewards more defensive play, and usually features a lot of spin. You should find out which players perform best on which surface as this can have a significant impact on the outcome of a match.

And it’s not just the surface that can affect play. Outdoor tennis tournaments are massively affected by weather, and so are the players. Some players will cope with adverse weather conditions like excessive heat better than others - and some players will find it an advantage if, say, the roof on Wimbledon’s Centre Court is closed, while others much prefer to be in the open air.

Finally, you shouldn’t neglect to consider the home court advantage. Competitors playing in their home country are often boosted by several factors: the crowd is usually on their side, they probably won’t be dealing with jet lag, and they will probably have extra motivation to win in ‘their’ tournament.

Stats

Alongside more general performance data, you can also analyse a player’s performance when it comes to specific statistics. A detailed knowledge of a player’s particular strengths and playing patterns can be invaluable when it comes to identifying types of bet that will put you ahead of the game. Some stats you might think about include:

• Winners. The number of points won by a player when their opponent couldn’t get to the ball.

• Unforced errors. The number of points lost by a player due to a mistake, while not under pressure from their opponent.

• First serve %. The percentage of successful first serves.

• First serve points won %. The percentage of points won by a player on their first serve.

• % of return games won. The percentage of games a player wins when returning serve.

History

While a player’s career, performance and current form tell you a lot about their chances, the player they’re facing is the most important factor. You might expect the players’ rankings to give you a good idea of their chances in the match, but in reality their historical match-up statistics will tell you far more.

Depending on their respective styles, a player who’s a theoretical underdog may have a far better chance against their opponent than their ranking might lead you to believe, perhaps because they’re a strong returner against a player with a weak serve.

Playing a leftie can often be a challenge for a right-handed player, and sometimes it’s as simple as one player having an extremely good knowledge of another’s game, perhaps because they’ve played each so many times before.

Whatever the case, checking on the match-up stats for the players in an upcoming match is crucial when performing research in advance of a match you plan to bet on.

The Best Strategies For Popular Tennis Markets

It’s important to be clear that, with a couple of rare exceptions, no betting strategy can guarantee that you’ll make money overall. Sports betting carries inherent risk and, no matter how promising a particular market might look, unless you can actually see the future it won’t guarantee you a profit.

That said, there are some strategies you can employ to maximise your chances of a win.

Match winner

There are a few popular strategies for tennis bettors in the know, which are generally considered to boost one’s chances of a win.

• Back surface specialists. Tennis players will often be well known for playing best on a particular surface - e.g. Rafael Nadal was particularly unstoppable on clay, winning the French Open an incredible 14 times. Backing a player who’s at home on the surface in question is often a good way to go.

• Back motivated underdogs. Especially in smaller championships, an underdog, especially a rising star, may well pull off a major surprise. Top players often attend smaller championships to keep their hand in (or even for a fee), without caring too much whether or not they win. A highly motivated underdog, for whom a win would mean much more, could well be a good pick in a smaller championship.

• Build Grand Slam accas. Favourites in Grand Slam tournaments (men’s especially) are often given such low odds that they’re not worth betting on. However, if you combine several to get through the early stages of a Grand Slam, your odds become more favourable without the risk of losing becoming excessively high.

Set betting (correct score)

This is a somewhat less popular market, and isn’t available with every betting site. Many experts recommend betting on a couple of different options in this market - for example, betting on both 3-1 and 3-2, if the match has a clear favourite, but with the underdog expected to put up a reasonable fight.

Of course, in women’s tennis there are only ever three sets, meaning the range of possible outcomes is smaller. It may well not be worth betting on more than one score in that case, if the potential returns don’t end up covering the cost of your original stakes.

Totals betting

• Set totals. Most expert tennis bettors keep a sharp eye out for underrated underdogs for this market, who might give a favourite more of a run for their money than the bookies expect. This might be because they’re young and haven’t yet proved themselves, because the favourite is recovering from injury, or perhaps because the underdog is playing in their home country and gets a boost from the crowd.
  
  If you spot a match where the underdog seems underrated by the bookie, it may be worth betting that the match will be over 2.5 sets, with the underdog forcing the favourite to work harder than expected for a win.

• Game totals. Similar principles apply for the total number of games within a match, as an unexpectedly strong performance from an underdog will extend the length of a match. A match between two strong servers is also an excellent choice when betting on a high number of total games, as this tends to result in a larger number of games per set.

Tennis Futures

The majority of tennis betting is on individual matches, but betting on the outright winner of a tournament, or on a player to make the finals or semi-finals, can also be an effective strategy.

If you’ve done your research, you may be able to track down an underrated underdog with a good shot of making it to the late stages (if not of winning) at great odds if you’re betting well in advance of the tournament.

If you’re right, you may find yourself in a position to hedge your bet as your underdog reaches the late stages, which could even allow you to guarantee yourself a profit.

In women’s tennis especially, it can be a good strategy to back rising youngsters. Unlike the men’s game, which tends to be dominated by the top players, relative newcomers to the women’s senior game frequently knock the best players off the top spot.

Bear in mind, though, that this strategy will by no means guarantee you a profit, and that there is still a good chance of failing to make anything back from your bet.

Live Tennis Betting

Tennis is particularly well-suited to live betting, given how frequently momentum can shift from one player to another, especially in close matches. This presents plentiful opportunities for the canny bettor to make a profit, but it also involves increased risk and requires you to act fast, as the odds change so quickly, which increases the chances of making a mistake.

To help avoid errors, it’s wise to have a well thought out strategy for live tennis betting.

• Prepare in advance. Do your research, and consider the kinds of bets you want to make. For example, you could decide in advance that if something happens in the match (e.g. if one player has multiple break points), you will place a certain bet (e.g. you’ll bet on the player to win the set).
  
  You should also closely evaluate both players, so that you’re well-equipped to spot patterns once play is underway.

• Pay attention to stats. Stats are updated constantly as the game progresses, and can tell you a lot about what’s likely to happen in the immediate future. For example, if a player is clearly struggling with their serve, betting that they will be broken in the current set is probably a wise move.

• Pay attention to the players. You can glean a lot of information about how a player is feeling from their demeanour. Whether they’ve got a small, niggling injury, or just feeling discouraged and defeated, watching the players closely can give you an edge when it comes to deciding how to bet.

• Consider the weather. For outdoor tournaments, the weather can have a huge impact on proceedings. It’s not at all uncommon for a player to seem unable to find a way back into a match, only for a conveniently timed rain break to give them the time out they need. 
  
  Check on the weather forecast, especially for tournaments like Wimbledon that have frequent rain interruptions, to see if rain is likely to change the course of an ongoing match.

Eliminate Risk With Matched Betting

No matter the strategy you follow (except, in some cases, hedge betting), regular tennis betting always involves an element of risk. While you may, with knowledge and experience, be able to beat the odds, the chances are still high that you’ll end up losing money in the long run.

One alternative, which can make you guaranteed profits with zero risk, is Matched Betting - so long as you follow the instructions correctly. And you don’t even need to know anything about the sport!

This is a technique that involves placing bets both for and against a certain outcome to earn free bets, which allow you to make a profit regardless of the result.

Most offers run along the lines of ‘Bet £10 and get a £10 free bet’. By matching the first bet, you break even - and you’re then able to make a profit on the free bet.

To find out more about how Matched Betting works, check out our complete guide for beginners - or if you’re keen to get stuck in, sign up for our free trial to get going straight away.

Summary

When it comes to tennis betting, there are a number of strategies you can adopt - but what they all have in common is that you should do as much research as possible to put you in the best possible position.

However, sports betting is an inherently risky activity - and the best way to guarantee profitable betting activity is to eliminate the element of risk altogether. To do that, we recommend having a go at Matched Betting, one of the best side hustles you can take up in the UK.