What Are Good Betting Odds?

Odds seem like a relatively simple concept in theory. If you want to place a bet, the odds tell you what you stand to make from it and give you a rough idea of the likelihood of it winning.

But, when you realise that probability isn’t the only factor that determines odds, things start to get more confusing. Bookies will adjust their odds to encourage betting on either side of an event, and of course, they add on a margin to all their odds to ensure they make a profit.

So with all those factors to consider, how do you work out whether a bookie’s odds are good value for money? Especially if you’re relatively new to sports betting, you might not have the expertise to decide for yourself what the likely outcome of a match or race might be.

In this article, we’ll take you through how odds work, what might make odds ‘good’ or ‘bad’, and how to decide for yourself whether the odds you see are worth taking. We’ll also explain what odds to look for when you’re making money through Matched Betting.

By the end, you’ll have all the information you need about odds, so that you can use available tools plus your own experience to assess the odds you see and make an informed decision as to whether they’re worth taking.

How Odds Work In Sports Betting

Odds in sports betting are based on the simple principle of telling the bettor how much they stand to win if their bet is successful. High odds mean they’ll win a large amount, while low odds mean a relatively small amount, when compared to their original stake.

Inevitably, odds also correspond (sometimes more loosely than others) to probability. A bookie is always going to be willing to pay out more if an outcome is considered unlikely to occur, and less for what is considered a highly likely outcome.

For this reason, odds can also be viewed as an indication of probability. Low odds indicate a high chance of something happening, whereas high odds indicate a low chance of something happening.

If you look at the odds for a certain event, you can therefore gain an idea of how likely each outcome is thought to be.

For example, let’s take a look at this upcoming football match between Chelsea and West Ham.

We can see that the odds offered for Chelsea are pretty low at 1.33, while the odds for West Ham are much higher at 8.5. A draw, meanwhile, also has fairly high odds, at 5.25.

This tells us that the bookie considers a Chelsea win to be by far the most likely outcome, with a draw relatively unlikely, and a West Ham win more improbable still.

They’re therefore willing to offer a pretty high payout for a West Ham win, and a much less significant one for a Chelsea win.

While odds can be used to give you an idea of the chance of something happening, though, it’s important to remember that probability isn’t the only thing that determines odds.

As well as adding on their margin, bookies will adjust their odds to encourage bettors to bet on certain outcomes. The aim is to ensure they have a balanced volume of betting on all sides of an event, so that they profit regardless of the outcome of the event.

Types Of Odds

In the UK, odds come in three main formats: fractional, decimal and moneyline. We’ll give you a quick rundown of how each format works here.

Fractional (British)

Fractional is the traditional odds format used in the UK, and means that odds are displayed in the form of a fraction. When you hear about someone talking about ‘odds of two to one’ or ‘odds of seven to two’ they’re using the fractional odds format.

​​Fractional odds indicate the amount you will win based on your original stake, with the first number showing your winnings, and the second your stake.

For example, 2/1 odds indicates that for every £1 staked you will win £2.

The problem with fractional odds is that they’re quite difficult to compare. Unless you’re already very familiar with how they work, you’ll have to do some maths to be certain of how much better or worse one set of odds is than another - and the majority of us would probably prefer not to have to do maths if we can help it.

Decimal (European)

Most people agree that decimal odds are the most straightforward. They’re presented as a number with decimal places, and you simply multiply your stake by that number to get your potential return.

For example, 3.0 odds means that if you bet £1, you receive a total of £3 if your bet wins.

You should be aware that your calculation for decimal odds gives you your total return (including your original stake), whereas fractional odds involve calculating your winnings (which don’t include your original stake).

Moneyline (American)

Moneyline odds are the most confusing of all. They come in two different formats, depending on the likelihood of an outcome, which is one good reason why they’ve never really caught on this side of the Atlantic.

For an outcome that is more likely than not to occur (i.e. a favourite), moneyline odds are expressed in the negative, while for an outcome that is less likely to occur (i.e. an underdog), the odds are expressed in the positive.

For a favourite, the odds indicate the amount you have to bet in order to win £100 (or, as they’re more commonly used in the US, $100). For an underdog, meanwhile, the odds indicate the amount of profit you’ll make if you bet £100.

+200 odds means that if you bet £100, you’ll make £200 in profit if your bet wins

-200 odds means that you need to bet £200 in order to make £100 in profit if your bet wins

Most British bookies allow you to choose between these three odds formats, though some only offer fractional and decimal, and a couple of others throw in a host of exotic Asian odds formats as well. You can usually find the option to change odds format either at the top of the sports betting screen, at the very bottom of your page, or in your account section.

You can use an odds converter to work out equivalents between sets of odds, but here are a few commonly offered odds and their equivalents in each format.

You can also infer the implied probability of each outcome from the odds given, so we’ve included the percentage chance for each set of odds as well, to give you an idea of how likely each is considered to be.

Factors That Affect Whether Odds Are ‘Good’

Now that you understand how odds work, the question is how to determine whether what you’re seeing offers you good value.

Odds compared to true probability

Naturally, there’s no single point at which odds can be said to be ‘good’, because it all depends on the real likelihood of an outcome occurring. This means that identical odds can be good or bad, depending on the context of the event in question.

If you can determine that the actual probability of something happening is higher than the odds would imply - so for example, something has a 50% chance of occurring, but you’re seeing odds of 3 - those odds would certainly count as being ‘good’.

On the other hand, if you can tell that the actual probability of something happening is lower than the odds would imply - say, something with a 20% chance of occurring, and you’re seeing odds of 3 - then those odds would be pretty poor.

Risk vs reward

Another consideration is the age-old calculation of risk vs reward. Does the amount you’re risking, and the risk of losing, merit the potential reward you’re seeing?

Even without taking into account the actual likelihood of something happening, you may well consider extremely high odds or extremely low odds not to come out favourably when you consider risk vs reward.

For example, in the football match we looked at earlier between Chelsea and West Ham, you might feel that neither team is very appealing. It can be helpful to methodically lay out your options and potential results to help you decide, as shown below.

At odds of 1.33, although your bet is clearly pretty likely to win, you aren’t making that much profit. Even if you put £100 on Chelsea, you’d only make a profit of £33 if they win - and although they’re the favourites, it’s still perfectly possible for them to lose or draw. Many bettors would feel that, in cases like this, the reward isn’t large enough to justify even the fairly small risk.

At odds of 8.5, meanwhile, West Ham will certainly give you a hefty return if they win - that same £100 bet would get you £750 in profit. But that win really isn’t very likely to happen at all, meaning that many bettors will feel the risk is too high to justify the reward.

Bookies will offer handicap markets to help to even things out, though, so just because the match odds are heavily one-sided, that doesn’t mean you won’t find suitable odds on any market for that match.

When deciding whether you like the look of the odds available on an event, it’s always worth weighing up whether the risk of your bet is justified by the potential reward.

What Are Good Odds For Matched Betting?

When you’re Matched Betting, you have very different considerations to think about.

You don’t care about whether the bet wins or not, so risk vs reward isn’t a consideration - so long as you’re doing it correctly, there isn’t any risk at all.

But that doesn’t mean the odds don’t matter. Depending on the type of bet you’re placing (whether it’s a qualifying bet or a free bet), you’ll need to evaluate the odds you see based on a few criteria.

Qualifying bets

• Meeting the bookie’s qualification requirements. Usually, a bookie will require you to place your qualifying bet with minimum odds to earn your reward - these are usually somewhere between 1.25 and 2 for single bets, though for multiples and bet builders they can be much higher.

• Finding a close match with the betting exchange. The closer your match with the odds at the betting exchange, the lower your qualifying loss will be. The Outplayed Oddsmatcher can help here, tracking down the best available matches for all the major UK bookies and exchanges to help you maximise your profits.

• Minimising your qualifying loss. As a general rule, it’s best to keep the odds for your qualifying bet as low as possible while meeting the bookie’s requirements. The lower the odds, the smaller your qualifying loss will be.

Free bets

• Maximising your profits. With a free bet, it’s best to look for higher odds, as these increase your potential profit. We recommend aiming for odds of 5 or above for a free bet, as generally speaking this allows you to make a profit of 75% or more from your free bet.

• Finding a close match with the betting exchange. This will always be one of your prime considerations with Matched Betting, regardless of whether you’re placing a qualifying bet or a free bet.

• Limiting your liability at the betting exchange. When betting at higher odds, as you normally will for a free bet, the amount you stand to lose at the betting exchange can be quite high (although this money is quite safe, as a loss at the exchange end means a win at the bookie end). If you’re relatively new to Matched Betting, you might not have built up a large balance at the betting exchange yet, so you may need to avoid extremely high odds in order to keep your liability affordable.

How To Assess Odds For Yourself

There are a number of things you can do to help you form an accurate assessment of whether the odds you’re seeing are good value or not, and to take advantage of valuable odds you encounter.

• Gain knowledge and experience. The more familiar you are with a particular sport, the better your estimation of any competitor’s chances in an event. If you’re planning to bet on a particular sport, it’s wise to research that sport extensively before you start betting (unless you’re Matched Betting, which requires much less specialist knowledge).

• Review past performance. You can get a pretty good idea of how likely a competitor is to win any upcoming fixture based on their past performance, both in general and against their opponents.

• Compare bookies’ odds. You can compare odds across different bookies (and betting exchanges) at odds checking websites, such as Oddschecker. This can help you establish who the best value bookie might be, and whether a particular bookie’s odds are underpriced or overpriced.

• Use available tools. Outplayed members have access to our tools designed to make Matched Betting as easy as possible. In particular, our Oddsmatcher tracks down the best matches available, helping you maximise your profits.
  And if you want to branch out further, Outplayed Pro tools such as the Extra Place Master and Lucky Finder identify selections with great odds, doing all the hard work of finding competitive selections for you.

Summary

There are lots of things that can make odds ‘good’ - it all depends on the context of the event, and of what you’re trying to achieve.

But generally speaking, the best ways to identify good odds will remain the same: gain knowledge and experience of the sport in question, compare odds between bookies (and exchanges), and use any Oddsmatching and value betting tools available to you to locate the best value selections.

And if this article has piqued your interest in making profits with Matched Betting, why not give it a go with the Outplayed free trial? You’ll be making your first profits before you know it!