What Is Goal Line Betting?

Gone are the days where football fans could only bet on whether a team is going to win or not.  The football betting markets have never had so much variety to choose from.  One such variety is Goal Line betting or Over/Under betting as it’s also known.

This type of bet involves predicting the number of goals that are scored during the match irrelevant of which team wins the game.  If you think there are likely to be a few goals in a match but aren’t sure who might win, a Goal Line bet might be right up your street.

During this article you'll learn what a Goal Line bet is, how it works, the different types of Goal Line bets and the pros and cons of Goal Line bets.

How Does Goal Line Betting Work?

Goal Line bets allow punters to bet on the number of goals that will be scored in a football match.  However, you aren’t restricted to betting on the exact number of goals. Bookies set a Goal Line which is set at 2.5 goals as standard and you have to decide if the total number of goals will be more or less than 2.5.

Obviously, scoring half a goal is impossible but the bookies use these goal lines so you can only win or lose.  So, if you thought there would be three or more goals scored between the two teams, you would bet on over 2.5.  Alternatively, if you think it will be two or less goals, you would bet on under 2.5 goals.  

Let’s break it down as an example where the bookie has a Goal Line market of 2.5 goals:

• Over 2.5 Goals: To win, the match needs to end with at least 3 goals (2-1, 3-0, 3-1 etc).
• Under 2.5 Goals: To win, the match needs to end with two or less goals (0-0, 1-0 & 1-1).
  

Why Is The Goal Line Betting Line Set At 2.5?

The number crunchers at the bookies have determined that not only is this the most popular goal betting option, but it’s approximately the average based on historical data.

Number crunching doesn’t need to be limited to the bookies though, customers can do their own data analysis to assess the probability of over or under 2.5 goals in a given match. If you really wanted to get down and dirty with the stats, you could consider the following when placing a Goal Line bet:

• Average goals scored each game in the competition you’re betting on
• Average goals scored each game for a specific team
  
• Average goals for and against for both teams
  
• Average goals scored in team head to heads
  
• Average goals scored per game for specific players
  
• Average goals scored by a player against a specific team
  

Knowing this level of information can only enhance your chances of making the right predictions on your Goal Line bet.

Fact: In the 2023/24 Premier League season, there were 1,246 goals scored.  This amounts to 3.28 goals per game.  Of the 380 games played that season, 244 had more than +2.5 goals scored in them.  That’s a whopping 64% of the games played, had over 2.5 goals scored in them.

Looking at these figures, you would rightly think that always betting on over 2.5 goals is the way forward. Again, this is where a bit of research helps because individual team’s stats might suggest otherwise.

Whilst 79% of Tottenham’s league games (30 matches) in the 2023/24 season had three or more goals scored, Everton only managed to score three or more goals in 42% of their games on just 16 occasions.

Different Types Of Goal Line Bets

You now know how the basic type of Goal Line bet works but your options aren’t just limited to one market.  There are other types of Goal Line bets that you can add to your betting strategy so let’s have a look at what all of the Goal Line markets are:

Goal Line Bets

This is the industry standard bet which we have already explained where a bettor predicts if there will be either under or over 2.5 goals scored in a football match.  Some bookies will refer to this as the Goal Line market whilst others call it the Over/Under Goals Market and it’s usually in the goals section of a match. 

Let’s look at real example of this market for a UEFA Champions League match between Arsenal and PSG.  Navigate to the game and then click on the Goals tab as highlighted.  The Goals Over/Under is the first market you can see and shows the industry standard Over/Under 2.5 goals market.

Alternative Goal Line Bets

This is identical to the +/- 2.5 goals market in terms of how the bet works but it provides bettors with more goal scoring options.  Again, you don’t need to predict who will win a match, just how many goals you think there might be.

The Goal Line markets outside of the 2.5 goals market can range from 0.5 up to 8.5.  However, it is rare to see odds being offered on Goal Lines over 6.5 and even if they do, the odds will be extremely low.  This is mainly down to the fact that the majority of football matches don’t have that many goals scored so most of the time it would be a sure bet and the bookies don’t enjoy giving money away.

There are times when using the Alternative Goal Line market might appeal to bettors.  For example, if a Premier League team is playing a team from League Two in the FA Cup and the Premier team put out a strong side, it might be worth looking at the odds from the higher Goal Line market such as over 5.5.  Alternatively, if there was a local derby between two evenly matched teams, you could look at what odds are on offer for under 1.5 goals.

It really is a case of studying the markets to make an informed choice as to which Goal Lines you think will be more likely to succeed.

Using the same match, here’s how the Alternative Goal Lines market looks.  Using the same navigation as before, head to the Goals section and the Alternative Goal Lines available are displayed underneath the standard Over/Under 2.5 market. As you can see, Bet365 are offering a market for up to 7.5 goals but the odds for the upper end of goals scored for the under market are very low. This is due to the fact that a high score is unlikely.  Always look at the odds as they usually paint a picture of what to expect, but not always.

Please note that some bookies will provide an Alternative Goal Line market separate from the 2.5 goals market but others will put all the markets together in one place.

To emphasise this point, let’s have a look at the same match between Arsenal and PSG but with Paddy Power this time.

Unlike Bet365, Paddy Power has all the Goal Line betting markets in one place, including the over/under 2.5 goals market. One thing you might have noticed is that Paddy Power have padlocks on some of the above markets.  Unlike Bet365 who offer very low odds on under markets of 5.5 and above, Paddy Power doesn't want to risk allowing people to bet on these markets as it’s extremely likely that there won’t be six goals scored.

Asian Goal Line Bets

This is where the Goal Line bets get a little more complex compared to the standard over/under market.  Please don’t confuse this type of bet with Asian Handicap betting as this is a different market.  Sometimes you will see Asian Goal Line bet markets and Asian Alternative Goal Line bet markets, similar to the standard Goal Line bet markets.

You are still betting on how many goals will be scored using the over/under technique.  However, instead of the bet winning or losing, Asian Goal Line betting usually provides a third outcome of refunding your stake.

Not only will you see similar options to the normal Goal Line bet offering, but you will see other variations that offer full goal options such as over and under 2 goals.  In this instance, an Asian Goal Line bet of over 2 goals would work like this:

• The match ends 2-1: You win the bet (over 2 goals)
• The match ends 1-0: You lose the bet (under 2 goals)
  
• The match ends 1-1 or 2-0: The bookie refunds your stake (exactly 2 goals)
  

To place this type of bet you head over to the Arsenal v PSG match on the bookies website, but this time you need to click on the Asian Lines section instead of the Goals tab. Here you will see the Asian Alternative Goal Line options and the bet of over 2.5 goals. Once selected, just place your bet as normal.

It doesn’t stop there as there’s another twist to the Asian Goal Line betting market. At some of the bigger bookies and on the more popular leagues and competitions, you will often see two sets of figures separated by a comma such as 2.0, 2.5 or 2.5, 3.0.

This is where Asian Goal Line betting takes another step up and you are now splitting your bet up into two parts.

Using the same example as before, let’s have a look at what the bet will look like when we choose 2.5, 3.0 in the Asian Goal Line market:

By choosing this bet, you are splitting the bet up so that half of the stake is being put on over 2.5 goals and the other half on over 3 goals. But what are the possible outcomes from this bet?

• Anything with a result involving two or less goals results in the whole bet losing as the outcome is under the lower part of the bet which is 2.5 goals.
• If the result ends with four or more goals scored, both parts of the bet win as the outcome is over 2.5 goals and over 3 goals.
  
• Should there be exactly three goals scored with a result such as 2-1 or 3-0 then the over 2.5 goals will win and the over 3.0 goals half of your stake gets refunded
  

PLEASE NOTE – The stake amount you enter is the total stake so if you were to place a stake of £10, £5 will be wagered on the over 2.5 goals part and £5 on the over 3.0 goals part.

Advantages & Disadvantages Of Goal Line Betting

Advantages

• You Don’t Need A Team To Win: A nice feature of Goal Line bets is that you don’t need to fret over which team will win. When teams are closely matched and the game should be competitive, this can be advantageous.
• Reduced Risk: When you bet on whole goal lines, there is the safety net of getting money back. This can be a good way to reduce any losses in competitive matches.
  
• Adaptable To Match Types: If you think there will be plenty of goals but aren’t sure which team will win, Goal Line betting can be a useful strategy.
  
• Potential Returns: Having a good knowledge of the teams involved and doing some research can go a long way to getting value from a bookie. The average punter doesn’t have an in-depth knowledge of particular teams or historical data and it’s bets from your average bettor that drive the market odds. This can lead to an experienced and knowledgeable bettor finding some good value bets and increasing potential returns.
  

Disadvantages

• Hard To Predict: Predicting the correct amount of goals is difficult. You can’t predict if a team is going to have a bad day or somebody might get sent off. There is potential for a few things to have an impact that can’t be legislated for no matter how much research you might do.
• Excitement: Whilst you still have a vested interest in how many goals you want teams to score, you don’t get the buzz of cheering a team to victory with Goal Line betting.
  

Goal Line Betting Strategies

Goal Line betting can be a great addition to your betting strategy and has the potential to be profitable.  Here are some things you should consider when placing Goal Line bets:

• Research: As with any type of bet, research is the key to improving your chances of success. Take a bit of time to look at the stats for both teams involved. How do their goals for and against stack up. You can gain a lot of information from websites such as FootyStats.org (https://footystats.org/england/premier-league/xg) who provide a whole host of information including xG (expected goals), clean sheets, recent form and much more.
• Team Circumstances: Have the teams involved got anything of importance at stake? Are they trying to get a spot in the Champions League or are the fighting against relegation? The importance of a match result can change the way a team plays.
  
• Team Announcements: make sure you watch out for any team news leading up to the match. Missing key defenders or strikers can have a big impact on a game and the amount of goals scored or conceded.
  
•  In-Play Betting: Placing bets whilst the match is being played isn’t easy as the odds can move very quickly. Therefore, this is something for the more experienced bettor to try. That said, Goal Line bets are suited to this type of strategy as you can see what’s unfolding during the game and can put a bet on if you think it looks like an attacking game where goals are going to be scored.
  
• The Referee: Some referees are more lenient than others. If you think a game might be fiery but the ref usually hands out cards like sweets, this could result in more goals being scored or a team parking the bus to protect their goal.
  

Mistakes To Avoid With Goal Line Betting

Pretty much all types of bets come with potential mistakes to avoid.  Let’s have a look at things to be wary of when placing Goal Line bets:

• Ignoring Current Form: No matter how good a team is meant to be, if they’re going through a rough patch and not scoring as many goals as they used to, you need to take this into consideration.
• Ignoring Conditions: A bout of snow, heavy wind or heavy rain can impact a game and make it harder for teams to score.
  
• Don’t Ignore The Bigger Picture: We have already mentioned current form but this isn’t the only part of the statistics you should check on. It pays to look beyond recent form alone as most teams have good or bad runs at some time. It’s important your expectations aren’t clouded by a couple of recent performances.
  

Summary

Goal Line bets are a flexible and fun way for football lovers who fancy a bet without having to predict the correct score or the match winner.  The standard Goal Line betting markets are a great way for novice sports bettors to learn about this type of bet before considering more advanced Goal Line bets.

For those with a good knowledge of the game, this can be a great option to leverage your expertise to your advantage. 

Remember: Do your research, avoid the common mistakes and don’t run before you can walk. Goal Line bets can be fun if approached in the right way.