A Guide to Football Arbitrage Betting

Quick answer: finding arbitrage opportunities is the most difficult aspect of arbitrage betting on football, but you should also take care to avoid attracting the attention of the bookies. Outplayed’s tools and software can help to streamline a football arbitrage strategy.

Football is enormously popular in the UK, and betting on football is similarly popular. 5.8% of Brits place bets on football, but most of them will lose money on average, because that’s simply how bookmakers make their profits.

Generally speaking, turning to betting on football as a way to actually make money is a terrible idea, especially if you base your betting decisions on hunches, or who your favourite team might be.

However, it is possible to secure a profit no matter how a football match goes, and the way to achieve that is arbitrage betting.

By covering two or more opposing outcomes on a match, you can lock in a profit no matter the match result, if the available odds are good enough.

In this article, we’ll talk you through exactly how you can begin an arbitrage betting strategy on football, the best markets and matches to go for, the tools that can help to maximise your profits, and the risks you should know about before you begin.

Arbitrage Betting In A Nutshell

For now, we’ll just give you a quick rundown of how arbitrage betting works. For a more detailed explanation, take a look at our full guide to arbitrage betting.

Arbitrage betting relies on finding favourable odds that cover opposing outcomes on a single match. By betting on all possible outcomes across a single market within an event, you can lock in a profit regardless of the result, so long as the odds are good enough.

The easiest way to do this is with a back bet at a bookmaker and a lay bet at a betting exchange, ensuring that your bets are directly opposed. If the back odds are higher than the lay odds, you stand to make a profit.

As an example, let’s take a look at this arbitrage opportunity on the Swedish Allsvenskan (the Swedish equivalent of the Premier League) between Vasteras and Djurgardens.

With Grosvenor, you could find back odds of 5 on Vasteras, while Betfair Exchange is offering lay odds of 4.4.

By using a Matched Betting or arbitrage calculator to work out your optimal stakes, you can lock in a profit of £2.28 on a £25 back bet, even taking into account Betfair Exchange’s 5% commission rate.

This is quite a small profit for the size of bet, of course, but because the risk of losing money is minimal (and should only occur if you make a mistake) this technique can be repeated over and over to build your profits in the long term.

What’s The Best Way To Arbitrage Bet On Football?

Because football is the most popular sport worldwide, it presents a massive range of opportunities for sports betting, and a lot of profit potential for arbitrage bettors.

With so many options available to the arber, it can be difficult to settle on the best approach. But fear not! We’re here to break down the most important considerations when working out your football arbitrage betting strategy.

The best arbitrage model for football betting

In the UK, it’s generally easiest to arbitrage bet using the bookmaker-exchange model, where you place your back bet with a bookmaker, and a lay bet, against the same outcome, at a betting exchange.

So long as your back odds are higher than the lay odds (and factoring in any commission charged by the exchange), you should come out in profit regardless of the outcome of the match.

Data Insight

A study of over 16,000 English football matches and odds from 51 online bookmakers found that bookmakers do not fully incorporate information contained in their competitors' odds, helping explain why occasional pricing differences can exist.

- Elsevier / University of Stirling

However, you can also consider the bookmaker-bookmaker model, where each of your bets is placed with a different bookmaker. If you’re betting on the winner of the match, this can be tricky, though, as you have three outcomes to cover, rather than just two, and you’ll need to spend some time looking for suitable odds.

However, you can also consider betting on two way markets, such as Over/Under, where it’s possible to place just two opposing bets to cover all outcomes (e.g. bet that there will be Over 2.5 goals with one bookmaker, and Under 2.5 goals with another).

Expert Insight

Many bettors judge an arbitrage solely by the percentage return, but execution speed often has a bigger impact on long-term results. A slightly smaller margin that can be placed confidently and consistently is usually more valuable than chasing larger opportunities that disappear before both bets are matched.

Which brings us on to…

The best markets for football arbitrage

If you’re using the bookmaker-exchange model of arbitrage, it makes little difference whether you’re betting on a market that has two possible outcomes or more, as your lay bet will oppose your back bet regardless. If you’re betting between two bookmakers, though, you’ll likely have an easier time with markets that directly oppose each other, like the Over/Under market mentioned in the section above.

There are also a couple of other considerations when looking at suitable markets for football arbitrage bets, though.

Firstly, and most obviously, the prevalence of arbitrage opportunities. Obscure markets (e.g. Asian handicap markets) are often more likely to see arbing opportunities, which may hold greater profit, because bookies may be slower to update their odds as probabilities shift.

In the short term, you may therefore be tempted to go for niche markets for the sake of quicker, more significant profits.

However, bookies are always on the lookout for suspicious betting patterns, and a habit of betting on highly obscure markets is one of the most obvious signs of an arbitrage bettor (or a matched bettor). To maintain your account health in the long run, it’s therefore best to stick to more popular markets, where your betting will blend in with the crowd, even if your profits aren’t quite so high in the short term.

The best matches for football arbitrage

The same considerations apply to matches as to markets when arbitrage betting on football.

More obscure matches, e.g. international matches from lower divisions, may offer more and better arbitrage opportunities due to bookies being slower to update their odds.

But betting, say, on the Swedish 3rd Division, closely followed by the Bolivian 2nd Division, is far from the behaviour of a regular punter, whose football betting is normally confined to British clubs, international competitions, and a perhaps a few of the best international teams, such as Real Madrid or Bayern Munich.

As with markets, it’s therefore wisest to stick to the most popular matches as far as possible, to help make your betting activity look more like that of a normal football fan.

Summary

Are There Any Tools That Can Help Me With Football Arbitrage Bets?

There are quite a few tools out there that can make a huge difference to the success and efficiency of your football arbitrage betting.

Most basic are sites like Oddschecker, which compares odds from the most popular bookies and a handful of betting exchanges, to show you which are the most generous. It won’t track down arbitrage opportunities on your behalf, but it will give you an idea of where you might find them.

Below, you’ll see a screenshot of Oddschecker’s results for an upcoming EFL match, with the best available odds for each win market selection highlighted in green.

Even with Oddschecker, though, you’ll spend a lot of time searching for good arbing opportunities, which limits the profitability of your strategy.

Far better would be a tool that locates good arbitrage opportunities on your behalf, so all you have to do is place your bets.

And that’s where Outplayed’s Oddsmatcher comes in. Available with all membership tiers, the Oddsmatcher constantly scans British bookies and betting exchanges for close matches between back and lay odds. Although it’s primarily designed for Matched Betting, it can equally be used for arbitrage betting.

Each match it displays is given a percentage rating, indicating how close a match it is. Anything over 100% is an arbitrage opportunity, with the potential to make you a profit.

For Diamond members, the Price Boost Tracker is another fantastic tool that makes it a breeze to locate good price boosts that allow you to lock in an arbitrage bet.

The benefit of using price boosts for arbitrage opportunities is that price boosts are specifically designed to attract bettors, so choosing to bet on one is unlikely to be considered suspicious activity by a bookie. That said, betting on nothing but price boosts isn’t a great look, so try to mix in a few mug bets as well to disguise your arbing.

What Are The Risks Of Arbitrage Betting On Football?

Arbitrage betting is in general a very low risk strategy, and when done correctly the likelihood of losing money is minimal.

However, there are still a few risks to bear in mind when arbitrage betting on football.

• Human error. This is the most significant cause of mishaps when arbitrage betting. Because arbitrage opportunities don’t tend to last all that long, bettors can end up rushing their decision-making and their betting, resulting in errors with markets or stakes.
  
  To reduce this risk, take advantage of tools like Outplayed’s Oddsmatcher and Arbitrage Calculator, to help you find arbing opportunities as soon as they arise and make certain you get your maths right before you place your bets.

• Palpable errors. Palpable errors (aka ‘palps’) refer to odds that are so obviously wrong that they’re clearly due to an error in the bookie’s algorithm. When this is the case, bookies’ terms and conditions generally allow them to cancel your bet, because the odds shouldn’t have been offered in the first place.
  
  To avoid falling foul of palps, assume that any ridiculously generous odds are probably too good to be true, and steer clear of betting on them. As a rough guide, we’d say that any arbitrage opportunity with a rating of 110% or more on the Oddsmatcher has a significant chance of being a palp, so is best avoided.

• Limited liquidity. If you’re using a betting exchange, always check how much available liquidity there is for your lay odds. If liquidity is low, you’ll be limited as to the amount you can stake with the bookmaker, and it’s also more likely that someone else will nab the favourable lay odds before you can finish placing your bets.
  
  To minimise the likelihood of running into problems caused by low liquidity, try to bet somewhat in advance of a football match, rather than in-play, when odds and liquidity will be changing all the time. We’d also recommend double checking that there’s enough liquidity immediately before placing your back bet, which will keep the chances of it disappearing while you’re mid-bet to a minimum.

Data Insight

Researchers analysing more than 1.8 million bookmaker and betting exchange odds across 17,410 football matches found that bookmakers are particularly likely to offer better odds than betting exchanges when exchange liquidity is low.

- The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance

• Bookmaker restrictions. In the longer term, bookie restrictions are likely to be the greatest threat to your arbitrage profits. Bookmakers do their best to detect arbitrage bettors - not surprising, as you’re making a profit for yourself rather than handing it over to the bookie.
  
  Try to blend in with other punters by betting on the most popular events, and placing a few ‘mug’ matched bets that don’t turn a profit, and you’ll give yourself the best chance of maintaining healthy accounts for as long as possible.

Expert Insight

Successful football arbitrage is often limited by account longevity rather than finding opportunities. Treat bookmaker accounts as a finite resource: avoiding unnecessary stake changes, rushed betting patterns and unusually repetitive behaviour can preserve access for far longer than constantly chasing the highest theoretical returns.

Are There Any Other Strategies You Can Use When Betting On Football To Maximise Your Profits?

Arbitrage betting is a fantastic technique, but the profits it generates per bet are quite small, and you do risk attracting the attention of bookies. Combining this technique with other smart betting strategies is the best way to make the best possible profits while minimising your risk.

Matched Betting

We strongly recommend combining arbitrage betting with Matched Betting as the best way to maximise your profits. Matched Betting produces higher profits per bet, generally speaking, especially in its early stages when bettors are completing lots of sign up offers, and can allow you to build your bankroll more quickly.

However, there are only so many offers available at any one time, and dedicated matched bettors could find themselves running out. Throwing a spot of arbitrage into the mix will help tide you over when there are fewer Matched Betting offers to complete (e.g. during the football off-season).

Between the two of them, it’s certainly possible to generate more profits more consistently than with either strategy alone.

To find out more about how Matched Betting works and how you can get started, check out the Outplayed Beginner’s Guide.

Value Betting

Value Betting is a more advanced strategy than arbitrage betting or Matched Betting, so it’s best suited to experienced sports bettors or matched bettors, who have already built up a good bankroll. This is largely because Value Betting does involve risk; you aren’t locking in a profit with every bet.

Once you’ve gained a good amount of experience (and cash) through Matched Betting and arbitrage betting, though, Value Betting can provide a massive boost to your profits. It relies on a similar principle to arbitrage betting - that of locating favourable odds from bookies. Specifically, odds that are higher than the true probability of a win would imply.

Value bettors place their bets only on selections with disproportionately favourable odds, which are statistically likely to contribute to generate profits in the long term, even though you aren’t locking in a profit on any individual bet.

To find out more about how Value Betting works and how you can get started, check out the dedicated Outplayed guide.

Summary

Football arbitrage betting can be a fantastic way to secure profits from football bets. With the help of tools like Outplayed’s OddsMatcher and Price Boost Tracker, you can maximise your profits while minimising any risk of mishaps.

But to really take your profits to the next level, your best bet is to combine arbitrage betting with Matched Betting or Value Betting. Whichever you choose, an Outplayed membership is the perfect companion, providing tools, guides and expert support to help you get the very most out of whatever strategy you choose.

To find out more, check out the Outplayed Beginner’s Guide to Matched Betting for all the information you need to get started.

Or if you’re ready to dive straight in, sign up for the Outplayed free trial to get immediate access to the Oddsmatcher, plus 40+ bookmaker sign up offers with the potential to make £850 or more in profits, completely free of charge.

FAQs

1. Can I make money by arbitrage betting on football?

Absolutely! Football is a great sport for arbitrage betting as it’s hugely popular, meaning there are loads of markets and plenty of volume at the betting exchange. If you find an arbitrage opportunity between a bookie and a betting exchange, you’ll be able to secure a profit by betting on both sides of that market.

2. Do I have to sign up to a betting exchange to arb on football?

You could stick to bookmaker-bookmaker arbitrage if you prefer not to sign up to a betting exchange. However, in the UK you’ll find more arbing opportunities with bookmaker-exchange arbitrage, so we do recommend signing up to at least one betting exchange - and ideally more!

3. What are the best markets for arbitrage betting on football?

You need to balance the profitability of your arb with the risk of being detected as an arbitrage bettor when choosing a market. There may be more arbitrage opportunities on obscure markets, or more profitable arbs, but betting on those markets may mark you as an arber to the exchange. More popular markets might be somewhat less profitable, but will help you preserve your account health in the longer term.

4. Will arbitrage betting on football get my account limited?

It’s definitely a possibility, as bookmakers put a lot of time and effort into detecting arbers and other smart bettors who don’t contribute to their profits. However, betting strategically to blend in with regular punters can help to extend the life of your accounts - and even if one bookie does restrict you, there are always plenty of others you can move on to.

5. Is arbitrage betting on football legal?

Yes, arbitrage betting in general is completely legal in the UK; all you’re doing is accepting the odds offered by the bookie. Bookies may consider you to be in breach of their terms and conditions, but you certainly aren’t breaking the law.