Paul Trevor

<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/sports-betting-guide">Sports betting</a> has become more popular than ever and this is mainly down to the sheer quantity of bets on offer and the <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/types-of-bets">types of bets</a> available.

Bettors can bet on the outcome of matches, team bets and player bets.

Among those popular betting markets is the ‘First Goalscorer’ bet which requires bettors to place a wager on who they think will score the first goal in a match.

This bet appeals to keen <a href="https://outplayed.com/football-betting-guide">football fans</a> as it offers excitement with the potential for high profits.

During this article you will explore what a First Goalscorer bet is, what rules apply to the bet, how to place one and mistakes to avoid when placing a First Goalscorer bet.

This type of bet is as you would guess, you’re going to place a bet on who you think is going to score the first goal.

Obviously, this bet type applies to football but can also be done with sports such as hockey and rugby (that would be first try scorer but the same principle applies).

Pretty much every bookie offers this type of bet and when you choose a match to bet on, you will be provided with a list of players for both teams and the odds associated with them scoring first.

There’s three key parts to a First Goalscorer bet:

To be fair, as this type of bet is straight forward, there really aren’t that many rules you need to consider but let’s have a look at the standard rules:

No Goals: You guessed it, if there’s no goals scored, your bet loses

Own Goals: The general rule of thumb is that own goals don’t count towards goalscorer bets. If the first goal is an own goal, the bet continues to run until the first proper goal is scored.&nbsp; A goal is deemed an own goal if it is officially declared on the day of the match. Later decisions by the Dubious Goals Committee don’t affect the bet settlement.

Non Starter: If your chosen player doesn’t start the match and a goal is scored before they come on, your bet is voided and you get your stake back.&nbsp; However, the exact rules can vary depending on the bookmaker, so it's always best to check the specific terms and conditions of the betting site you're using.

Substitutes: If your player is a substitute and comes on when the game has no goals scored, your bet still remains active.&nbsp; On the other hand, if the game is 0-0 and your player gets substituted off, the bet will lose.

Game Duration: The majority of bookmakers limit First Goalscorer bets to 90 minutes, plus injury time.&nbsp; It’s unusual for the bet to include extra time or penalties in tournaments.&nbsp; However, it’s always worth checking the bookies terms in case they allow it.

Considerations Before Placing A First Goalscorer Bet

Picking your First Goalscorer bet is the critical part of your betting strategy.&nbsp; It can mean the difference between success and failure.&nbsp; It isn’t always about picking the best striker. A bit of research can go a long way so here’s some things you might want to consider when making your choices.

The markets for placing this bet will be slightly different depending on which bookies you use.&nbsp; However, the process will always be very similar and pretty straight forward.

Let’s have a look at a couple of popular bookmakers websites to see how to place the First Goalscorer bets.&nbsp; We will use a real example of an English Football League Cup fixture between Liverpool and West Ham.

Bet365 don’t mess about and provide multiple ways to place the bet.&nbsp; The same market is available on the Popular, Bet Builder and Player tabs as can be seen below:

You’ve done your analysis and you fancy Diogo Jota to have a good cup run.&nbsp; The next step is really simple, just click on the odds against Jota in the ‘First’ column.&nbsp; The bet slip will open and show the odds so you just need to choose your stake and click the Place Bet option and you’re done.

Important: You can see from the above image that there is a tick box for ‘Void if player does not start’ selected. Leaving this alone is the sensible option just in case he doesn’t start the game.&nbsp; However, if you have knowledge that suggests he will definitely be coming on if he doesn’t start, you could choose to untick that option.&nbsp; Again, this is usually recommended though.

Sky don’t offer the multiple options that Bet365 do but they do offer the First Goalscorer bet option.&nbsp; Once you have chosen the match you’re interested in, just click on the player tab and the first option is the ‘Goalscorers’ betting market.&nbsp;

As before, just choose your player from the ‘First’ column and place your bet.

Pitfalls To Avoid With First Goalscorer Bets

Whilst First Goalscorer bets are straight forward and have the potential to reward well, they can incur risks.&nbsp; Let’s look at some common pitfalls and how you might avoid them.

Research: Always do your analysis before placing bets. A common mistake made by punters is that they don’t use the information available to them. It’s worth checking recent form of players, player injuries, starting line-ups and recent trends.

Emotion:&nbsp; Don’t let your heart rule your head when placing bets. Placing bets on your favourite team or player can lead to making bad decisions and potential losses.&nbsp; Use your research to make informed decisions.

Don’t Dismiss Players:&nbsp; A lot of bettors get pulled towards the star players when looking at placing First Goalscorer bets.&nbsp; Doing this doesn’t always offer good value to customers.&nbsp; Have a look at the form of the lessor known players to see if they offer value and have a good chance of getting you a result.

Best Odds:&nbsp; Always shop around with the bookies before placing a bet.&nbsp; Some bookies will offer bets than others.&nbsp; It’s also worth looking out for price boosts, enhanced odds offers and promotions across the bookies.&nbsp; Free bets will also increase your bankroll without the risk of losing your own money.&nbsp; These can give bettors much better value and increase potential returns.

Advantages &amp; Disadvantages Of First Goalscorer Bets

Good Returns:&nbsp; The potential returns from First Goalscorer bets can be generous because it can be harder to predict than a match result.&nbsp; This can provide great returns if your bet comes in.

Excitement:&nbsp; These bets can be both engaging and fun as you remain focused on the game to see if there’s a goal and who scores it.

Knowledge: This is where bettors with a strong knowledge of the game can have an advantage.&nbsp; Knowing about different teams and players equips you to make informed decisions when placing your First Goalscorer bets.

Amount of Options:&nbsp; Most bookies will offer this type of bet on pretty much all football matches.&nbsp; This gives punters a huge pool to dip into and is especially useful if you known about particular teams and players.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Increased Risk: Because you’re relying on one event within a football match, this makes predictions harder and increases the risk of losses.

Variance: Even if you have a strong knowledge of the game you’re looking at betting on, First Goalscorer bets have a high level of variance meaning they are difficult to predict and win on.

Unpredictable:&nbsp; It’s impossible to know where a goal might come from.&nbsp; One slip from a defender could allow another player in to score. This makes predictions difficult.

Limited Time To Bet:&nbsp; unless you take a gamble, you won’t know if a player is starting&nbsp; until the teams are announced.&nbsp; This makes it difficult to carry out full research beforehand.

The First Goalscorer bet isn’t the only Goalscorer bet that you can do either.&nbsp; Most bookies offer other bet variations too so let’s have a brief look at what else you might be interested in looking into.

A very popular bet with football punters but this betting market doesn’t offer odds as good as the First or Last Goalscorer markets.&nbsp; This is because your risk is reduced due to the fact that your chosen player can score at anytime during the match for the bet to win.&nbsp; Usual rules apply, own goals don’t count and bets are valid for 90 minutes plus stoppage time.&nbsp; To place an Anytime Goalscorer bet, you’ll usually find them in the same place as the First and Last Goalscorer markets and there will be an ‘Anytime’ column.

Basically, this is the opposite of the First Goalscorer bet. The same process applies in that you pick a football match and pick a player.&nbsp; This time you choose the Last Goalscorer bet option on the bookies website and place your bet as normal.&nbsp; If your chosen player scores the last goal of the match, you’re a winner.&nbsp; As with all Goalscorer bets, own goals don’t count and the bet is usually only valid for 90 minutes plus injury time.

As with any <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/how-does-an-each-way-bet-work">Each Way Bet</a> your stake is split in half.&nbsp; With an Each Way Goalscorer bet, half of your stake is placed on your chosen player scoring the first goal of the match.&nbsp; The second half of your bet is placed on your player scoring the second or third goal of the match.&nbsp; Either of these outcomes will result in you getting returns from your bet, but the returns will be better if your player scores the first goal of the game. Depending on the offer the bookies provide, the second part of the bet will usually pay a quarter of the returns you would get if the player scored the first goal.

Please Note – at the time of writing this article, Bet365 are offering unlimited places on their Each Way Goalscorer bets. This means that the returns aren’t limited to just the second and third goal, but they will pay out even if your chosen player scored the seventh goal in a match.&nbsp; It’s always worth checking what the bookies are offering as it can give you an extra advantage.

The First Goalscorer Betting markets can offer excitement to bettors and have the potential to be quite lucrative.&nbsp; However, whilst placing First Goalscorer bets is straight forward, predicting the outcome is not so easy.

The odds offered by bookies on these bets can be quite generous, but this is because of how difficult it can be to predict the correct outcome. This type of bet is more suited to bettors who are keen on football and have a strong knowledge of the teams and players involved.

Research and analysis can play a big part in increasing your chances of success. Approached correctly, First Goalscorer bets can add a valuable and potentially profitable addition to your betting strategy.

First Goalscorer Bets Explained

Ben Adams

You can <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting">start Matched Betting</a> using your current bank account, however, it can be beneficial to open a separate dedicated bank account for your betting activity.

With so many different banking options out there, it can be overwhelming to figure out which one is best suited for your needs as a Matched Bettor.

That's why we've done the research for you and narrowed down the top choices based on factors like fees, ease of use, and overall reliability when betting.

In this article, we’ll explore the best bank accounts to use when Matched Betting and also look at the benefits of opening a separate account from your regular spending.

Why You Should Consider A Separate Bank Account For Matched Betting

When starting out with Matched Betting, managing your finances can quickly become overwhelming if all your transactions such as bookmaker deposits, withdrawals, and day-to-day spending are lumped together in one account.

Here are some reasons why having a separate bank account is highly recommended:

Ultimately, any high street bank account is good to use when Matched Betting.

Most high street will offer quick setup for new current accounts. When choosing a bank for Matched Betting, the key things to look for are ease of access, no overdraft, and free banking services.

<a href="https://personal.natwest.com/personal/current_accounts.html?extcam=N_ppc_GGL_MTA_REWC_ZOM_natwest%20basic%20account_Search&amp;utm_source=google_NW_MTA_BP&amp;ds_rl=1005634&amp;gclid=CjwKCAjw-OHkBRBkEiwAoOZqlzGmwdQoVUxx47l9sy4duX_a0ZTj9kv6L6OO09-8gOsaJo0wqQ8okhoCevgQAvD_BwE&amp;gclsrc=aw.ds">NatWest</a> offers a straightforward current account with no monthly fees and reliable online banking. If you’re looking for an easy-to-use account that won’t charge for basic services, NatWest is a solid choice.

<a href="https://www.tsb.co.uk/current-accounts/?WT.mc_id=43700040420308609&amp;WT.srch=1&amp;keyword=tsb%20current%20account&amp;matchtype=e&amp;adid=325754824286&amp;cmp=TSB-UK-PCA-Current%20Account-B-Exact&amp;agrp=B%20-%20Current%20-%20Account%20-%20Core%20-%20Exact&amp;eact=GOOGLE&amp;ch=ppc&amp;sch=brand&amp;pf=pca&amp;co=acq&amp;gclid=CjwKCAjw-OHkBRBkEiwAoOZql4l6eZ6ZgBBsosQ_8gEn1FTNobhpwM1Uwd9AS5gTR202wsfcZS69ihoC7toQAvD_BwE&amp;gclsrc=aw.ds">TSB</a>’s current accounts are also fee-free and offer easy online and mobile banking. The account comes with a debit card that you can use for deposits and withdrawals with bookmakers.

<a href="https://www.santander.co.uk/personal/current-accounts">Santander</a> provides a user-friendly experience and quick access to your funds, with no monthly fees on its basic current account. It's another convenient option for separating your betting activities.

<a href="https://www.nationwide.co.uk/products/current-accounts/our-current-accounts/overview">Nationwide</a> is a popular choice, offering a range of current accounts with no monthly fees. Like the others, it provides a debit card that’s ideal for your betting deposits and withdrawals.

Key Tip: Avoid choosing an account with an overdraft to make your financial management simpler and prevent you dipping into an overdraft by accident when depositing into multiple bookmaker accounts, this will ensure you won’t get hit with unnecessary fees.

E-wallets can speed up your transactions, particularly when moving funds between bookmakers and exchanges. Some e-wallets process withdrawals within hours or even instantly, allowing you to keep your Matched Betting running smoothly without waiting potentially 3-5 business days for bank transfers - most withdrawals are processed much faster these days typically from instant to 1-2 days.

However, there are some important considerations when using e-wallets for Matched Betting, particularly regarding eligibility for offers. Many bookmakers exclude e-wallet deposits from promotional bonuses, so it’s always best to check the terms and conditions before using an e-wallet for your first deposit.

<a href="https://www.paypal.com/uk/home">PayPal</a> is the most widely recognised e-wallet, offering fast processing times for both deposits and withdrawals. Many bookmakers accept PayPal, and transfers to your bank account can be instant.

<a href="https://www.skrill.com/en/">Skrill</a> (formerly known as Moneybookers) is another popular e-wallet option. Skrill transactions are usually processed quickly, making it ideal for moving funds between accounts. However, like PayPal, Skrill can also be excluded from some offers, so always double-check the terms.

<a href="https://www.neteller.com/en">Neteller</a> is frequently mentioned in bookmaker terms and conditions, often alongside warnings that deposits made through Neteller may not qualify for promotions. Additionally, withdrawing funds from your bank from Neteller requires the use of Skrill, which adds an extra layer of complication.

Using Online Only Banks For Matched Betting

Online bank offer pretty much all the services high street banks offer, but are fully online. Some examples of these are <a href="https://monzo.com/monzo-account/">Monzo</a>, <a href="https://www.revolut.com/">Revolut</a> and <a href="https://www.starlingbank.com/">Starling</a>.

We’ve seen mixed reviews when using these online bank accounts for Matched Betting.

There have been reports that some of the online banks themselves block any gambling-related transactions which obviously isn’t ideal when betting.

While choosing a bank account for Matched Betting might not seem like a critical decision, setting up a separate account can greatly simplify your betting activities. It allows you to track your profits more clearly, avoid unnecessary complications with loan or mortgage applications, and manage your bankroll effectively.

By setting up a high street bank account and using a debit card to deposit into your bookie accounts you can be confident you’ll be eligible for all offers and it also helps you avoid other issues such as account blocks or more potential <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/do-i-need-id-for-matched-betting">identification checks</a> that come with depositing via e-wallets or online only banks.

Best Bank Accounts for Matched Betting

Stephanie Sorrell

We’ve all encountered betting odds in life at least occasionally.

Even for those of us who’ve never visited a betting shop, racecourse, or bookie website, betting odds will crop up on the news or in general discussion.

But if you don’t know how they work, they can be distinctly mystifying, especially when they’re in the form of fractions but don’t seem to correlate to how fractions actually work.

Our step by step guide will take you through everything you need to know to read and understand betting odds in every major format so that you’re never baffled again when you come across betting odds on a betting site, or out in the wild.

Betting odds represent the amount somebody can expect to win in the event of their bet being successful. The higher the odds, the more a bettor will get if they win their bet, while lower odds will result in a much more modest return.

Because of the way betting works, betting odds also become a representation of probability.

Higher odds mean that an outcome is considered much less likely to occur, while low odds will indicate that a team or player is the favourite to win.

Indeed, betting odds have become so ubiquitous in life that the word ‘odds’ has become a colloquial synonym for ‘chances’ - e.g. ‘Wow, what are the odds of that happening?’

People often interpret betting odds as a direct translation of the likelihood of something happening - but while they certainly offer an indication of that likelihood, it’s important to remember that’s not all they’re doing.

Bookies manipulate their odds to guarantee themselves profits (more on that later), often resulting in a skewed set of odds for many events.

When considering betting odds, keep in mind that they don’t directly represent the true chances of something happening.

Types Of Betting Odds And How To Read Them

Betting odds come in a few formats, which each dominate in different parts of the world.

Although there’s no ‘correct’ betting odds format, some are certainly more confusing than others to the layperson.

In each case, though, once you’re used to reading odds in a certain format, it’ll probably feel like the ‘right’ format for you.

There are three main types of odds used in the western world.

The traditional format for betting odds in the UK is fractional. At first glance, fractional betting odds can look very confusing, but they’re reasonably straightforward once you know your way around them.

Fractional odds indicate the amount you will win depending on your original stake, with the first number showing your winnings, and the second your stake. Here are a few examples below:

2/1 odds indicates that for every £1 staked you will win £2 (equal to 3.0 in decimal odds and +200 in moneyline odds)

1/2 odds indicates that for every £2 staked you will win £1 (equal to 1.5 in decimal odds and -200 in moneyline odds)

5/4 odds indicates that for every £4 staked you will win £5 (equal to 2.25 in decimal odds and +125 in moneyline odds)

The only trouble with fractional odds is that it can be quite difficult to compare them, especially if you’re not yet very comfortable with reading them. This means that you might not always be certain of whether one set of odds is better than another.

For many people, decimal odds are the easiest to understand. They’re used mostly in Europe, but are catching on in the UK as well. With decimal odds, you simply multiply your stake by the odds to calculate your total return (including your original stake) on a bet. For example:

3.0 odds means that if you bet £1, you receive a total of £3 if your bet wins (equal to 2/1 in fractional odds and +200 in moneyline odds)

1.5 odds means that if you bet £1, you receive a total of £1.50 if your bet wins (equal to 1/2 in fractional odds and -200 in moneyline odds)

2.25 odds means that if you bet £1, you receive a total of £2.25 if your bet wins (equal to 5/4 in fractional odds and +125 in moneyline odds)

The maths involved for decimal odds is therefore much easier, but it’s important to remember that you’re calculating your total return, not just your winnings, as is the case for fractional odds.

To non-Americans, moneyline odds are the most confusing of all. To start with, they come in two different formats, depending on the likelihood of an outcome. For an outcome that is more likely than not to occur (i.e. a favourite), moneyline odds are expressed in the negative, while for an outcome that is less likely to occur (i.e. an underdog), the odds are expressed in the positive.

For a favourite, the odds indicate the amount you have to bet in order to win £100 (or, as they’re more commonly used in the US, $100). For an underdog, meanwhile, the odds indicate the amount of profit you’ll make if you bet £100.

+200 odds means that if you bet £100, you’ll make £200 in profit if your bet wins (equal to 2/1 in fractional odds and 3.0 in decimal odds)

-200 odds means that you need to bet £200 in order to make £100 in profit if your bet wins (equal to 1/2 in fractional odds and 1.5 in decimal odds)

+125 means that if you bet £100, you’ll make £125 in profit if your bet wins (equal to 5/4 in fractional odds and 2.25 in decimal odds)

This format is rarely used in the UK, and British bettors are therefore unlikely to want to use it - but it never hurts to have a basic understanding of how these things work.

You’re fairly unlikely to need to do much converting most of the time, as most betting sites allow you to choose your preferred format of odds in your account settings. Pretty much all bookie sites will allow you to choose between fractional and decimal odds, while some will also include moneyline odds, and the odd one will even include some more exotic odds formats, such as Indonesian or Malaysian odds.

Occasionally, though, you may need to convert from one format to another - for example if you’re completing an offer where the minimum odds are expressed in fractional format, and you prefer decimal.

While you certainly can put your brain to use and work out the maths by hand, the easiest way to do so is to use an <a href="https://outplayed.com/calculators/odds-converter">odds converter</a>.

It can be useful to work out the implied probability from the odds you’re seeing for a particular selection - i.e. the approximate likelihood of that selection winning.

For each type of odds, there’s a different calculation you can use to work out the probability (though you can again simply use an odds converter).

To turn fractional odds into probability (as a percentage), you can use the following formula, with the odds expressed as x/y:

So for example, you would do the following calculation for odds of 2/1:

Decimal odds are perhaps the easiest to convert to probability - the formula is simply 100/odds.

For example, for decimal odds of 4.0, you would do the following calculation:

Moneyline odds are probably the most awkward to convert to probability, as you have two different calculations to perform depending on whether the odds are positive or negative.

For underdogs (with positive odds), we use a similar method to fractional odds. First, divide the odds by 100, and then use the formula (1 / (x + 1)) * 100 to work out the probability.

For example, for moneyline odds of +400, you would do the following calculation:

For a favourite, we use the same formula, but then subtract the end result from 100.

For example, for moneyline odds of -400, you would do the following calculation:

People often assume that betting odds are a direct representation of the likelihood of something happening, but that isn’t necessarily the case.

For a full explanation of the various techniques bookies use to determine odds, check out our guide - but we’ll talk you through the basics here.

There are a few different factors that go into the algorithms that bookies’ software uses to decide odds, which can roughly be broken down into two categories.

It’s not the only consideration that goes into betting odds, but it’s certainly an important one!

Bookies will use enormous amounts of data, including past performance of each team/player/competitor, weather and other conditions, and past matchup results, to assess the likelihood of all possible outcomes within a match or race.

A bookie doesn’t exist to predict the future - its reason for existence is to make money, and it ensures itself profit through its oddsmaking.

An ‘overround’ is factored into the odds you see on a bookie’s website, which is their margin on their pricing.

They also adjust their odds constantly as people make bets, aiming for the same volume of betting on all sides of an event.

This allows them to ensure that they make their profit regardless of the outcome of that event.

The available odds for a certain event can vary quite drastically from bookie to bookie.

This can mean a pretty major difference to your potential profit, so if you’re looking to place a bet on a particular match or race, it’s worth your while finding the bookie with the best odds.

Fortunately, there are tools online to help you do exactly this, so there’s no need to trawl through the bookies’ sites manually looking for the highest odds.

Websites such as <a href="https://www.oddschecker.com/">Oddschecker</a> compare the odds from the biggest UK bookies to allow you to find the highest odds for whatever you want to bet on.

How To Read Betting Odds: A Step By Step Guide

Simon Thatcher

The Martingale Strategy is one of the most famous betting systems ever created, promising an almost irresistible allure: if you just keep doubling your stake, you’re bound to come out ahead eventually, right?

Imagine sitting at the roulette table, on the brink of victory or disaster, each spin seemingly bringing you closer to triumph—or deeper into the red.

The idea sounds simple, and in theory, it even seems foolproof. But why, then, do casinos not only allow it but welcome it?

You can certainly give yourself a long-term edge at online casinos by taking advantage of their numerous <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/why-you-need-to-do-casino-offers" target="_blank" title="">casino offers</a>. In this article, though, we’ll dive deep into the Martingale Strategy’s history, its appeal, and, most importantly, the harsh reality behind why it’s not the golden ticket it may appear to be.

Before you place your next bet, read on to learn why this system could lead to more losses than you might expect.

The Martingale Strategy is a betting strategy where you double your wager if you lose, and return to your original stake if you win.

It’s usually used for bets that pay twice your stake if you win, for example betting on red or black in <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/how-to-play-roulette" target="_blank" title="">roulette</a>, or <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/types-of-bets" target="_blank" title="">sports bets</a> at evens (2.0 odds). We’ll concentrate on red/black roulette bets here.

Let’s imagine you’re playing roulette at the casino, with a £10 chip on black for your first wager.

The croupier declares ‘no more bets’ and spins the wheel. After jumping around chaotically, the ball looks to have settled in the black 26 pocket, but bounces out at the last minute and ends up in red 19, leaving you £10 down.&nbsp;

Normally you’d just about to put another £10 chip on black, but you remember an intriguing system you’ve read about that seems to give you a surefire way of ending the night in profit. Even if you win wager another £10 and win, you’ll only cover your existing loss and break even over the two wagers. But what if you double your stake to £20?

Then, if you win the next wager, you’ll be £20 up for the round, covering the loss from the previous round and giving you £10 profit on top.&nbsp;

With this in mind, you double up, sliding two £10 chips onto black this time. Again, the wheel spins. Again, it lands on red. Another £20 loss, and you’re now £30 down overall. 

No problem though - if you double your stake to £40, a winning bet will give you £40 profit. This will cover your losses of £30 and leave you £10 up overall.&nbsp;

This time, you’re in luck - the ball comes to rest in the black 29 pocket, and you win £40.

Not wanting to push your luck any more, you cash in your chips and leave the casino £10 richer, pleased with yourself for turning a losing position into a profit.&nbsp;

The system you’ve used is called the Martingale Strategy, or Martingale System, and it’s been around for well over 200 years. It’s easy to describe in a few words:

If you lose, double your stake. If you win, bet your original stake.&nbsp;

The idea is that, as long as you eventually have a winning bet, you’ll always cover your previous losses plus a profit equal to your original stake.&nbsp;

Below are a few possible winning runs using the Martingale Strategy, betting on black at the roulette table and starting with a £10 stake.

Example 2 - First two bets lose and 3rd Bet Wins

Example 3 - First three bets lose and 4th Bet Wins

In each case, you’ve come away with a £10 overall profit by doubling down until you get a winner. After each winning run, you’d return to your original £10 stake for the next wager.

The table below shows that no matter which spin you win with, your overall profit will be equal to your original stake. That’s assuming you have a winning spin, of course. This example uses a more modest £1 starting stake:

For example, if you lost the first 7 spins, your total loss so far would be the sum of the previous losses:

Loss on First 7 Spins = £1 + £2 + £4 + £8 + £16 + £32 + £64 = £127

Your stake on the 8th spin would be doubled from £64 to £128. If this won, you’d make £128 profit on this spin, covering your previous losses of £127 and giving an additional £1 profit on top.&nbsp;

Whilst it might seem exciting to have a £2048 win on your 12th spin, it’s important to realise that your actual overall profit for this ‘Martingale round’ (a run of results between one win and the next) is only £1. That’s despite having been £2047 down from the previous rounds and risking a further £2048 loss on that 12th spin.

The staking pattern for the Martingale Strategy, where you double up every time you lose, is an example of a geometric progression. With this sort of progression, to get the next term in the sequence, you multiply the previous term by a certain number (in this case, this number is 2, as we’re doubling our stake). As you can see from the ‘Stake’ column in the table above, with this sort of progression, the numbers get very big, very quickly.

The Martingale Strategy is thought to have originated in France in the 18th Century, where it was a popular system with gamblers. How it got its name is uncertain, but it’s been suggested that the word martingale comes from the Provençal expression ‘jouga a la martegalo’, which means “to play in an absurd and incomprehensible way”. You’ll soon see that this is a pretty good description of the strategy.&nbsp;

It’s often suggested that the Martingale Strategy was either named after or popularised by an 18th century London casino owner, John H. Martindale. According to legend, he used to walk around the casino, encouraging his customers to double their bets if they lost. It’s a nice story, but may well not be true.&nbsp;

In the summer of 1891, English gambler and fraudster Charles De Ville Wells visited the Monte Carlo Casino, where it’s said he ‘broke the bank’ by winning more than the 100,000 francs cash reserve of the table, which led to the casino having to suspend play on the table whilst they brought more funds from the casino’s vaults. He claimed to be using an ‘infallible system’, which some people believe to have been the Martingale Strategy.

Why You Shouldn’t Use the Martingale Strategy

There are several reasons why the Martingale Strategy doesn’t work, but first, let’s look at one situation where it does work.&nbsp;

The Martingale Strategy is a perfect system if you have infinite money and play at casinos with no table limit.&nbsp;

With infinite money and no table limits, you’d always be able to keep doubling up until you won, since it’s almost 100% certain that you’ll eventually have a winning spin.

Dragging ourselves back to the real world, where casinos definitely have table limits and, sadly, none of us have infinite wealth, you’ll see there are several very good reasons why the Martingale Strategy doesn’t work.&nbsp;

<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/gamblers-fallacy" target="_blank" title="">Gambler’s Fallacy</a> is a commonly-held, but mistaken belief that if an independent and random event has happened less frequently than expected, it’s more likely to happen in the future (or vice versa).&nbsp;

To understand what this actually means, imagine you’re flipping a coin and have seen a run of 5 heads in a row. Instinctively, you might think that 6 heads in a row is very unlikely, so the next flip has a greater chance of landing on tails.

This isn’t the case, since neither the coin nor the Universe have any ‘memory’ of any of the previous results. As long as it’s a fair coin, it will always have the same 50% chance of landing on heads, no matter what’s happened with previous results.&nbsp;

If you have any doubts about this, try coming up with an explanation of how a coin flip could possibly be linked to the previous coin flip, or how the last spin on a roulette table could affect the next spin.&nbsp;

You’ll often see discussions about gambling on roulette where people suggest waiting for a run of one colour at the roulette table before starting the Martingale Strategy on the other colour.

Of course, since each spin is completely independent of all others, it makes no difference at all when you start the strategy - you’ll always have exactly an 18/37 chance of your colour coming up.

If you wait for 5 reds in a row, before starting to bet on black, not only does it make no difference at all to your chances of winning, you’ll also spend much more time waiting for these long runs of reds than you will actually placing any wagers!

For a random and independent event, previous results have no effect on future outcomes.

Examples of random and independent events are coin tosses, roulette spins and spins on online slot machines.&nbsp;

Going a little deeper into this, the misunderstanding arises because people know that there is only a relatively small chance of having a run of the same outcome (for example, flipping a coin 6 times and getting 6 heads). As you’ll see below, this is true:

Probability of getting 6 heads from 6 coin flips = ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ = 1/64

This doesn’t tell the full story though. This 1 in 64 chance only applies before flipping the coin the first time. If you’ve already flipped 5 heads, these previous results are irrelevant to any future results. After already flipping 5 heads, the chance of getting the 6th head in a row is 1 in 2, not 1 in 64.&nbsp;

Another name for Gambler’s Fallacy is the Monte Carlo Fallacy, so called because of a particular game of roulette played at the Monte Carlo Casino in 1913, where the ball landed on black an unusually large number of times in a row. The casino’s customers became increasingly convinced that after such a long run of blacks, it was almost certain to land on red soon, so started betting increasing amounts of money on red. Unfortunately for them, the run only ended after black had turned up an astonishing 26 times in a row! Needless to say, lots of people lost a lot of money that night, whilst the casino made a tidy profit.&nbsp;

If you’d been using the Martingale Strategy with a 10p starting stake on that run, betting on red each time, and with a bankroll to cover all the required wagers, you’d be over £6.7 million down after those 26 losses!&nbsp;

But just how likely is it that you’ll have a losing streak that wipes out your entire bankroll when using the Martingale Strategy? Probably more likely than you think!

We’ve already seen that there’s only a 1 in 64 chance of flipping a coin six times in a row and getting six heads. Moving onto red or black roulette bets, the chance of winning any particular spin is slightly less than 50%, thanks to the green zero (or, if you’re playing American roulette, the zero and double zero).&nbsp;

With European roulette, which has only one zero, there are 18 reds, 18 blacks and 1 green, so 37 possible outcomes. Betting on black, 18 out of the 37 possible outcomes are winning spins.&nbsp;

Probability of winning = 18/37 = 48.64%

As you’ve already seen, if you have a winning spin, your overall profit each time you is just your original stake, so nothing dramatic happens with winning streaks. With losing streaks, your loss doubles each time you lose, so it’s much more important to look at the chance of a losing streak.&nbsp;

There are 19 outcomes that are not black, so betting on black, the probability of losing is:

Probability of losing 1 spin = 19/37 = 51.4%

Probability of losing 6 spins in a row = 19/37 x 19/37 x 19/37 x 19/37 x 19/37 x 19/37 = 1.83%

This is about a 1 in 54 chance, so it’s not particularly likely that you’ll have 6 losing spins out of 6 wagers. However, if you’re playing roulette, you probably won’t just do 6 spins and walk away. A more important question to ask is how likely is a losing streak of 6 when you’re doing a longer run of spins.&nbsp;

This is a bit more complicated to work out, but here’s a table showing the chance of having at least one losing streak of 6 or more at some point when doing different numbers of spins. The loss you’d have incurred from this losing streak, if you started with a £1 stake, is also included.

With a £1 starting stake, your loss from a losing streak of 6 would be £63.

As you can see, if you do 100 spins, there’s a greater than 50% chance that you’ll have a streak of at least 6 losing spins. If you do 1000 spins, it’s almost a dead cert.

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