Simon Thatcher

Value betting involves placing bets that are more likely to win than suggested by the bookmaker’s odds.

Value betting is a betting strategy that gives you an edge over the bookmakers by finding odds that are higher than they should be.

It involves accurately working out how likely an outcome is, then using this information to find ‘overpriced’ bookmaker odds and betting on these.

Unlike with <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting"></a><a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting">Matched Betting</a>, you won’t lock in a profit when placing a value bet.

But, if you can consistently find bets that have value to you – known as positive expected value (+EV) bets – you can make fantastic long-term profits from value betting.

Even better, value betting works with <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/top-tips-to-avoid-being-gubbed">gubbed accounts</a>.

In this article, you’ll find out about how bookmakers set their odds, different value betting techniques, and a range of value betting tools.

First, we’ll look at some key ideas that help us understand how to find value bets.

Fair odds accurately reflect how likely a bet is to win.

A bookmaker offering fair odds would have no edge and would pay out as much in winnings as they took in losing bets over time.

With a coin toss, the chance of either heads or tails is 50%.

A bookmaker offering fair odds on a coin toss would pay double your stake if you won and take your stake if you lost.

To work out the return on a winning bet, the bookmaker multiplies your stake by the decimal odds. You win double your stake on a winning bet at fair odds for a coin toss, so the return on a £10 stake is:

Return = Stake x Odds = £10 x 2.0 = £20

£10 of this is just you getting your stake back, so the profit is £10.

There’s a 50% chance your bet wins, so you’ll make £10 profit half the time and lose your £10 stake the other half. Over time, you’ll break even, and so will the bookmaker.

The bookmaker would then go out of business quickly, which is why they don’t offer fair odds.

Implied probability shows how likely an outcome is, as implied by the odds.

It’s a really important concept when it comes to value betting. Lower odds bets are more likely to win, and higher odds bets less likely.

To work out the implied probability of a bet, you divide 1 by the decimal odds. For the fair odds coin toss bet, this is:

Implied probability = 1 / 2.0 = 0.5 = 50%

We know the actual chance of either heads or tails is 50%. Since the implied probability of the bet is the same as the actual likelihood of it winning, we can see that the odds of 2.0 are fair.

In betting, <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-expected-value">expected value</a> is the average profit you’ll make from placing a bet.

It takes into account the likelihood of the bet winning or losing, the profit you make if it wins, and the loss you take if it loses.

For a £10 bet on a coin toss at odds of 2.0, the expected value (EV) is:

EV = (0.5 x £10) + (0.5 x -£10) = £5 - £5 = £0

This is just a way of saying, with maths, that you win £10 half the time and lose £10 the other half. It also shows there’s no long-term value to this bet for either you or the bookmaker. We’ll look at how to find that value later.

Bookmakers set their odds to ensure they profit in the long run. They work out the fair odds for a bet, then set their odds lower than this to give themselves an edge.

For a coin toss, they might lower the odds from fair odds of 2.0 to 1.9. This bet will return £19 if it wins (a £9 profit), and you’ll lose £10 if it loses.

EV = (0.5 x £9) + (0.5 x -£10) = £4.50 - £5 = -£0.50

In the long-term, you’ll lose 50p on average for each £10 bet you place, meaning this is a negative expected value (-EV) bet.

The bookmaker, on the other hand, makes a 50p profit for every £10 staked. This is their edge, or margin, and is the key to how they make money from the bets they offer.

Bookmakers use betting analysts, sports traders, and quants (quantitative analysts) to assess, as accurately as possible, the likelihood of an outcome.

The odds can then be set accordingly, making sure to reduce the odds a bit to factor in that all-important margin.

Some bookmakers also take into account odds from betting exchanges or other bookmakers when setting their own odds.

When two football teams play each other, betting analysts look at data, including previous results, recent form, expected weather conditions, team selection, and injuries.

They use this to predict the likelihood of the outcomes of a wide range of bets.

A bookmaker setting match odds for Serbia v England might assess the chances of the three possible outcomes as:

These correspond to fair odds of 9.52 for a Serbia win, 4.65 for a draw, and 1.47 for an England win.

To factor in a margin, the bookmaker lowers these odds to set their actual odds. For this game, they might have odds of 8 for Serbia, 4.5 for the draw, and 1.44 for England.

These are Betfred’s actual odds for the game. The imagined fair odds are an estimate of what these might be.

An educated guess was made that Betfred reduced Serbia’s odds by a much bigger factor than England’s, to take account of the <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/betting-on-the-longshot/">favourite-long shot bias</a>.

It’s been observed many times that bettors tend to bet on ‘long shots’ or ‘underdogs’ more than they should, based on the odds, so bookmakers can reduce the odds of long shots by more than they do with favourites.

Bookmakers can be roughly divided into two types – sharp bookmakers and soft bookmakers.

Sharp bookmakers are aimed at professional bettors. They tend to have lower margins and adjust their odds very quickly, using sophisticated systems.

Sharp bookmakers set their own odds, using advanced systems and models.

Most of the process is automated, allowing them to react to events like player injuries quickly, often adjusting odds in a few seconds. They are also often the first bookmakers to create a particular betting market.

The initial odds offered by a bookmaker are called opening odds. They are often released late at night or early in the morning, so are also known as overnight lines.

Although they don’t operate in the UK, Pinnacle are often referred to as the sharpest bookmaker. They don’t offer <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/qualifying-bet-guide">sign-up or reload bonuses</a>, so can afford to have smaller margins on their betting markets.

Pinnacle post opening odds with low betting limits of perhaps a few hundred pounds. ‘Sharp’ bettors – experienced, well-informed, and often professional bettors – are often the ones placing the first bets on these opening odds. Pinnacle then adjust their odds based on the betting activity of these sharp bettors, whose opinion they value.

Once Pinnacle have refined their odds from their opening odds, they can confidently increase their betting limits to as high as £50,000 or more for some markets.

Due to their sophisticated methods, sharp bookmakers have very efficient odds. This means that, once the margin has been removed from their odds, they tend to be an accurate indicator of fair odds.

Many Asian bookmakers, for example, Dafabet and 188Bet, are generally considered to be sharp bookmakers.

Soft bookmakers are aimed at casual bettors. They tend to have higher margins and adjust their odds relatively slowly, often in response to odds changes at sharp bookmakers or exchanges.

Most well-known bookmakers, like Bet365, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, and William Hill are soft bookmakers. They offer <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/qualifying-bet-guide">sign-up and reload bonuses</a> and have bigger margins than sharp bookmakers.

Soft bookmakers don’t price their markets as efficiently as sharp bookmakers, so their odds tend to be a worse indicator of fair odds.

Despite their bigger margin, it can be easier to find overpriced odds with soft bookmakers, since their odds are more likely to be mispriced.

This can be exploited by value bettors, who can often bet on overpriced odds at soft bookmakers, extracting long-term value.

Exchange odds are set by bettors, and change as a result of supply and demand.

Betting exchanges use peer-to-peer betting, where bettors bet against each other, rather than taking bets offered by a bookmaker. Exchanges make money by charging a commission on winning bets, although you can get <a href="https://outplayed.com/matchbook">0% commission with Matchbook</a> with <a href="https://outplayed.com/user/register">Outplayed membership</a>.

Exchange odds arise differently to bookmaker odds. To form the market initially, individual bettors set their own odds. These odds then change as bets are placed. If more bets are placed on one outcome, these odds tend to drop, and the odds for the other outcomes in the same market increase.

As more bets are placed and more money enters the market, it becomes more ‘well formed’. The amount of money available to place bets (the liquidity) increases, and the gap between the back and lay odds (the spread) decreases.

New Yorker columnist James Surowiecki suggested a compelling idea in his book The Wisdom of Crowds.

He argued that “the many are smarter than the few”. In terms of betting exchanges, the suggestion is that a large number of people betting on a market, and causing the odds to change, often leads to odds that more accurately reflect the likelihood of the bet happening than bookmaker odds, set by experts.

Studies have shown a very close correlation between the implied probabilities of an outcome at betting exchanges and the likelihood of that outcome occurring.

A 3-year study by Franck, Verbeek and Nüesch, of all 5478 games played across the ‘Big Five’ football leagues (England, Spain, Germany, Italy, and France), showed that exchange odds tend to be a better predictor of actual results than bookmaker odds.

Source: <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1503350">SSRN</a>

Another reason exchange odds are a better indicator of fair odds is that the odds aren’t reduced to create a margin, unlike at a bookmaker.

The idea of the wisdom of crowds isn’t perfect.

For example, if a bookmaker’s odds for Liverpool start to drop, just because lots of people decide to back Liverpool, this could lead to more people betting on them.

This would then cause the odds to drop further. Herd mentality could then ensue, with ‘fear of missing out’ leading to ever more bets placed on Liverpool.

Since there was no sound reason for the odds dropping, bets placed on Liverpool would have increasingly poor value the further the odds dropped.

Value betting is the placing of bets on betting markets that have been overvalued by bookmakers.

It’s clear that the odds are literally stacked against us when we bet at a bookmaker.

What Is Value Betting? Everything You Need To Know

Ben Adams

There are tons of ways to make money from&nbsp;<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/matched-betting-summer">Matched Betting this summer</a>, but one sport in particular stands out.

When it comes to dependable, year-round value, horse racing is unmatched.

For horse racing, summer is one of the most reliable times of year for daily, repeatable profits.

From high-profile summer festivals to daily racing offers, there are consistent opportunities for profit.

And when using <a href="https://www.betconnect.com/">BetConnect</a> alongside horse racing offers this summer, you can make the most of every bet you place.

Here’s how to turn horse racing into your summer profit engine - and why BetConnect is the key to doing it efficiently.

Summer = Prime Time for Racing (And Profits)

While other sports take a breather, horse racing keeps galloping. Literally!

There are races every day, all summer long.

And during the big meetings, bookmakers bring out their best offers including plenty of <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/horse-racing-refunds">refund offers</a>, <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/extra-place-offers">extra places</a>, <a href="https://outplayed.com/price-boosts">price boosts</a> and more.

Here are some of the headline events to keep an eye on this summer:

These festivals attract more attention, more punters and more bookie offers. That makes them prime time for matched bettors.

But even outside of the big weeks, daily racing still delivers.

If you’re aiming for steady, repeatable profits this summer, horse racing is a great place to focus.

The Best Horse Racing Offers For Matched Betting

There’s no shortage of daily horse racing promotions, and with the right tools, they can be turned into reliable profit.

Here’s a quick rundown of the horse racing offers you’ll want to focus on:

These <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/horse-racing-refunds">horse racing refunds</a> offer your stake as a free bet or cash if your horse finishes in certain non-winning positions (like 2nd or 3rd).

They are quick to complete, and widely available on weekdays and weekends - especially during live ITV Racing slots.

<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/extra-place-offers">Extra Place offers</a> give you the chance to make big profits.

Bookies often boost the number of each-way places they pay out on certain races.

By laying the standard places on the exchange, you can land a tidy profit if your horse finishes in one of the “extra” spots.

This strategy works even with gubbed accounts, so perfect for those accounts you thought were no longer of any use to you.

These are the simple and effective offers you will be used to when doing the initial bookmaker signup offers.

You simply back and lay using a horse race, get a reward (usually a free bet) that you can turn into a profit for no risk providing you follow the instructions correctly.

This one’s often overlooked, but it can lead to free winnings if your horse’s Starting Price (SP) ends up higher than the odds you backed.

You can use the <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/bog-catcher">BOG Catcher</a> to help you find bets with zero qualifying loss and the potential for pure profit.

BetConnect: A Game-Changer For Horse Racing Matched Betting

If you’re serious about horse racing profits, <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/matched-betting-betconnect">BetConnect</a> deserves your attention.

Unlike other betting exchanges, BetConnect specialises in horse racing.

This means there are often improved odds on some horse racing markets, particularly in the 10am–2pm window, when BetConnect market activity is at its peak.

That makes it perfect for daily horse racing offers and high-demand festival weeks alike.

Ever seen perfect lay odds, only to have them disappear after you've placed your back bet?

With BetConnect, you get a full minute to lock in your lay odds - giving you plenty of time to calmly complete your matched bet without the stress.

BetConnect works by serving you fully matchable lay bets in your Outplayed tools.

No <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-are-unmatched-bets">unmatched or partially matched</a> nightmares. Just clean, fast matched bets.

One of the easiest side profits in Matched Betting. If you're not taking your easy £30 per month here, make sure you get involved!

For every £1,000 in lay bets you place through BetConnect in a calendar month, you’ll get £5 cash, up to £30/month with the <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/betconnect-you-lay-we-pay-offer">"You Lay, We Pay"</a> offer.

That’s free, real money for doing what you already do - backing and laying offers.

<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/betconnect-integration-outplayed">BetConnect is fully integrated with Outplayed’s tools</a>.&nbsp;

This saves time, reduces errors, and speeds up your workflow - perfect whether you’re betting in bursts throughout the day or doing a focused session in the morning.

Keep in mind that the peak time for BetConnect liquidity and the best odds are between 10am and 2pm.

This is important to know as you'll find the most zero loss qualifying bets during this time.

When possible, make this your core betting window this summer, and you’ll maximise your horse racing Matched Betting returns.

With daily racing, big summer festivals, and reliable tools like <a href="https://www.betconnect.com/">BetConnect</a>, you’ve got everything you need to keep earning big.

Matched Betting on horse racing isn’t just a backup strategy - it’s one of the most consistent profit streams you can tap into.

Make sure you take full advantage of all that&nbsp;BetConnect offers to maximise your horse racing Matched Betting returns

Horse Racing: Your Secret Weapon For Summer Matched Betting

When it comes to <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting">Matched Betting</a>, the tools you use can make all the difference.

Whether you're a beginner or an experienced bettor, using the right exchange can significantly increase your profits and reduce the time you spend placing bets. That’s exactly where <a href="https://www.betconnect.com/">BetConnect</a> comes in.

BetConnect isn’t just another betting exchange - it’s purpose-built to make Matched Betting smoother, faster, and more profitable.

With features designed to eliminate common frustrations, it’s one of the easiest ways to upgrade your setup and maximise returns from your existing strategy.

In this article, you'll see why BetConnect is worth using - and how it can instantly improve your Matched Betting experience.

BetConnect is a UK-regulated betting exchange that allows you to place lay bets - just like Betfair, Smarkets and Matchbook. But it works a little differently.

Instead of having to browse the exchange to find your own lay bets, BetConnect serves you the best available lay odds automatically, directly through your Matched Betting software and allows you to lock in lay odds ensuring the odds won't suddenly change.

This removes the hassle of hunting for liquidity or dealing with <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/what-are-unmatched-bets">unmatched or partially matched bets</a>.

BetConnect is especially strong for horse racing markets, which is where most Matched Bettors find value.

You can also use it for football and other sports, but its biggest strength is in racing - especially when combining it with tools like the <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/bog-catcher">BOG Catcher</a> or <a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/extra-place-offers">Extra Place offers</a>.

There are plenty of betting exchanges out there - but BetConnect stands out for one simple reason: it’s built with Matched Bettors in mind.

From faster bet placement to unique features you won’t find elsewhere, BetConnect removes many of the common headaches that come with laying bets.

Here’s why BetConnect has become so popular for Matched Betting:

Earn Extra Cash with “You Lay, We Pay”

Amongst all the other following benefits of using BetConnect, the “<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/betconnect-you-lay-we-pay-offer">You Lay, We Pay</a>” offer is a brilliant bonus that is worth doing anyway - especially if you're laying regularly.

Each calendar month, you’ll earn £5 in real cash for every £1,000 in lay stakes, up to £30 total.

All this bonus money is fully withdrawable without any&nbsp;wagering requirements so you're literally&nbsp;being paid for doing what you already do!

<a href="https://outplayed.com/blog/betconnect-integration-outplayed">BetConnect is directly built into Outplayed’s core tools</a>, including the Oddsmatching software and the BOG Catcher. That means:

One of BetConnect’s standout features is the 60-second odds lock.

When you click the lock button in the Outplayed calculator, your lay odds are fixed for one full minute.

This gives you time to place your back bet without worrying about the lay odds price moving.

This is a huge advantage during busy periods or when doing close matches. It reduces the risk of losing value or having to scramble to edit the calculator or find new odds.

Unlike traditional exchanges, BetConnect won’t partially match your lay bet. It either fully matches it or doesn’t place it at all.

This removes a common headache for matched bettors - having to deal with part-matched lays and uncertain liability.

With BetConnect, your position is always clear.

Smart Bet Sourcing (No Browsing Required)

Rather than giving you a full exchange interface, BetConnect only presents you with available and fully matchable lay bets through the Outplayed betting software.

This “curated” approach means you’re only shown bets that are ready to go. If a lay bet with BetConnect is available, it’ll be an option in the calculator. If it’s not, you don’t waste time looking.

Top Tip: Try Using BetConnect between 10am to 2pm

If you're targeting horse racing offers, the best time to find BetConnect lay bets is between 10am and 2pm.

This is when liquidity is strongest for races happening later in the day.

During this window, you'll see more BetConnect options appear in the Oddsmatching software and BOG Catcher, giving you more opportunities to place profitable bets with minimal and zero qualifying losses.

BetConnect Frequently Asked Questions – Everything You Need to Know

Boost Your Matched Betting Profits Instantly With BetConnect

Royal Ascot 2025 (Tuesday 17th June – Saturday 21st June) is one of the most prestigious and high-profile horse racing events in the UK. It’s also one of the best times of year to make serious profits from <a href="https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting">Matched Betting</a>, regardless of your experience or bankroll.

In this guide, we’ll show you exactly what to expect and how to make the most out of Royal Ascot.

Why Is Royal Ascot So Valuable For Matched Betting?

Royal Ascot is not only one of the pinnacle events in British horse racing but also one of the busiest betting weeks of the year.

With millions of pounds wagered across the festival’s five days, bookmakers are in full battle mode to attract punters, which in turn creates a wealth of opportunities for Matched Bettors. Here's why:

Millions of pounds are staked each day, leading to fierce competition among bookmakers. They want to capture a slice of the extra attention so try to attract you with a flood of promotions and offers.

Bookmakers pull out all the stops to grab your attention by rolling out a variety of reload offers. Expect to see lots of&nbsp;Extra Place offers, money-back&nbsp;specials, refund offers and price boosts.

Unlike four-day events like Cheltenham, Royal Ascot spans five days. This extra day brings more races, more offers, and ultimately, more opportunities to maximise your Matched Betting profits.

You can pre-plan your Matched Betting day during Royal Ascot by knowing the daily race schedules.

(Subject to change - times and race names/sponsors may differ)

14:30 - Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1)

15:05 - Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)

15:40 - King Charles III Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1)

16:20 - St James's Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1)

17:00 - Ascot Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)

17:35 - Wolferton Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1)

18:10 - Copper Horse Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2)

14:30 - Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)

15:05 - Queen's Vase (Group 2) (Class 1)

15:40 - Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)

16:20 - Prince Of Wales's Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1)

17:00 - Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)

17:35 - Kensington Palace Stakes (Fillies' Handicap) (Class 2)

18:10 - Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1)

14:30 - Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only) 5f

215:05 - King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)

315:40 - Ribblesdale Stakes (Fillies' Group 2) (Class 1)

416:20 - Gold Cup (Group 1) (Class 1)

517:00 - Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)

617:35 - Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)

718:10 - Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2)

114:30 - Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)

215:05 - Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (Class 1)

315:40 - Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2)

416:20 - Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1)

517:00 - Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2)

617:35 - King Edward Vii Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)

718:10 - Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2)

14:30 - Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1)

215:05 - Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)

315:40 - Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1)

416:20 - Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)

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What Is Value Betting? Everything You Need To Know