Why You Need To Do Casino Offers
20 Sep 2023
Updated: 21 Sep 2023
Why You Need To Do Casino Offers
Casino offers are incredibly profitable, incredibly simple, and quite often, incredibly fun. Outplayed Diamond Members have full access to our amazing guides and tools for profiting from casino offers.
The House Always Wins
To learn why we do Casino offers, its important to understand firstly how casinos operate and make money. Every game you can think of at a casino - whether it's card games like Blackjack, table games like Roulette or Slot machines, they all have one thing in common - a house edge. The house edge is how the casino makes money over the long term.
The house edge basically means that the casino is very slightly more likely to win any particular game than you are. Imagine a roulette wheel - it has 18 black numbers and 18 red numbers - so you would think if you bet on either red or black, your chances of winning would be 50/50. Not the case however - thanks to the number "Zero", which is neither red or black. This means that there are 18 winning numbers, but 19 losing numbers (the opposite colour + the zero), which means you are slightly more likely to lose than win. Over hundreds (or thousands) of games, this translates into a very reliable stream of profit for the casino.
The house edge is best viewed as a percentage Return to Player (RTP). In the case of European Roulette, the RTP is 97.3%. This means that, on average, for every £100 you stake on Roulette, you get back £97.30 - a loss of £2.70. This means the more you play, the more you lose. You might get lucky and have a winning streak; but across thousands (or millions) of spins, the house edge will always shine through and you will lose 2.7% of whatever you stake. Clearly, this is not a way to make money.
Taking Back the Edge
So how do we shift that edge over to ourselves? Just like with Matched Betting, we can use bonuses to give ourselves an edge.
So normally, when playing Roulette, if we were to bet £1 on black, and repeat that 100 times, then we would expect that, on average, at the end we would have lost £2.70. Not great.
But let's now imagine we've found an offer for a £20 casino bonus. In order to turn the bonus into cash, we need to wager it 5 times over (so £100 total of stakes). So like in the above example, we bet £1 on black and repeat that 100 times. Again, we expect on average to have lost £2.70 - but then we get the bonus money as cash - which is £20. Our average profit is therefore £17.30 (the £20 bonus less our £2.70 qualifying loss). As you can see, the wagering is a bit like the qualifying loss on Matched Betting, and the bonus is where you make your profit.
It works in the same way.
Expected Value and Variance
The above example is how we work out the value of a casino offer - which we call the Expected Value (EV). Work out the qualifying loss from the wagering and deduct it from the bonus amount to determine if the value is positive.
Let's use another example - an offer requires us to wager £100 on slots in order to get a £50 bonus. Slots have different house edges, but a good starting point is 95% RTP. So £100 staked at 95% RTP gives us back £95, a loss of £5. We then get a £50 bonus, so the EV is £45.
But this does not mean you are guaranteed to make £45. We need to consider something important - variance.
Variance reflects the random nature of casino games in short bursts. Let's consider flipping a coin.
If we flip a coin once, we have no idea if the result will be heads or tails.
If we flip it 10 times in a row, we might guess that around 5 would be heads and 5 would be tails - but the realiy is we might get heads 6 or 7 times out of the 10, and we wouldn't find that particularly surprising. And if we did it again we might get tails more often than heads. This is called variance.
But if we flip the coin 1000 times in a row, it is extremely likely that we would get heads around 50% of the time, give or take. Essentially this means that variance becomes less of a factor the more flips you complete, and the RTP becomes the thing that matters.
What This Means
Ultimately, the takeaway from this is that as long as you complete casino offers that have a positive Expected Value (EV), then you have an advantage against the casino and over time, you will be certain to make a profit that loosely correlates to the EV. However, when looking at an individual offer, our profit can vary wildly - you might make significantly more than the suggested EV if you hit a big win - and then on other offers, you might make nothing at all.
Check out some of the graphs below from our members showing their actual profit (yellow) compared to the EV of the offers they completed (blue). You'll see that EV consistently goes up, but profit can fluctuate significantly between offers.
Are Casino Offers Risk-free?
They can be, but not usually. Casino offers are categories into a few risk categories:
- Risk-free - it is not possible to lose money with these offers. There are not many offers like this, and they tend to have quite small EV's, but there are a few to take a look at and its a good place to start.
- Low Risk - it is possible to lose money on these offers, but it is extremely unlikely to lose more than a couple of quid. Think of these like a small qualifying loss. If you complete every low risk offer and you don't end up in a significant profit I will eat my hat. It's probably more likely you would get struck by lightning than not make a profit completing these offers - those are the kinds of odds I'm talking about. These offers are EASY MONEY.
- Medium Risk - These are where it is possible to lose more - you could bust out your deposit which could mean losing £10 or £20 - but these are still an incredible source of value and provided you complete enough offers, you will end up in profit.
- High Risk - High risk, high reward. These offers are not for newbies - they are for experienced members only. You should not even think about doing a high-risk offer until you have a bankroll close to £10,000. They can give massive payouts, but the downswings can be significant.
Are Casino Offers Gambling?
Gambling is throwing your money away to something that is rigged against you and relying on short-term luck. What we're doing here is acting like a casino ourselves - we are the ones with an advantage. Complete enough offers and we are almost mathematically certain to make a profit - it is just statistics. This is the OPPOSITE to normal gambling where we are mathematically certain to make a loss. That is the key difference.
That said, for most people, you should only be doing risk-free and low-risk offers, since these are just easy money with barely any risk at all. Once you've built up a bankroll, you can think about moving on to some of the other categories.
How Much Can You Make?
Every month we post well over £1000 in EV worth of casino offers. All you need to do is complete enough of them over a sustained period of time and you will make money. Take a look at some of the profits made by our members:
One of our casino forum threads has over 13,000 replies from people talking about their experiences with casino offers. We’ve also got a dedicated ‘big casino wins’ thread in the forum for wins over £1000. Some of the biggest wins ever to date have been £48,390, €27,993 (a member based in Ireland) and £21,306 - crazy stuff!
More than 50% of the total value we posted came from casino offers.
Matched Betting Casino Offers with Outplayed
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